Keep your trading charts clean!🧹
✅Keeping Charts Clean: Since a trader's charting platform is his or her portal to the markets, it is important that charts improve rather than hinder a trader's market analysis. Easy-to-read charts and workspaces (the entire screen, including charts, news feeds, order entry windows, etc.) can improve a trader's situational awareness, allowing him to quickly decipher market activity and react to it. Most trading platforms allow you to largely customize the color and design of the chart, from the background color, style and color of the moving average to the size, color and font of the words that appear on the chart. Setting up clean and visually appealing charts and workspaces helps traders use indicators effectively.
✅Information overload: Many modern traders use multiple monitors to display multiple charts and order entry windows. Even if six monitors are used, you should not consider every square inch of the screen as technical indicators. Information overload occurs when a trader tries to interpret so much data that in fact they are all lost. Some people call this analytical paralysis; if too much information is presented, the trader will most likely not be able to respond. One way to avoid information overload is to exclude any extraneous indicators from the workspace; if you don't use it, lose it – this will help reduce clutter. Traders can also view charts to make sure they are not burdened with multicollinearity; if multiple indicators of the same type are present on the same chart, one or more indicators can be deleted.
✅Tips for organizing: Creating a well–organized workspace using only relevant analysis tools is a process. The set of technical indicators that a trader uses may change from time to time depending on market conditions, strategies used and trading style.
❗️On the other hand, charts can be saved if they are configured in a user-friendly form. There is no need to reformat the charts every time the trading platform closes and reopens. Trading symbols can be changed together with any technical indicators without disturbing the color scheme and layout of the workspace.
✅Recommendations for creating easy-to-read diagrams and workspaces include:
⏺Colors. The colors should be easy to view and provide great contrast so that all data can be easily viewed. In addition, one background color can be used for order entry charts (the chart that is used to enter and exit a trade), and a different background color can be used for all other charts of the same symbol. If more than one symbol is traded, you can use a different background color for each symbol to simplify data isolation.
⏺Layout. Having more than one monitor helps to create a comfortable workspace. One monitor can be used for entering orders, and the other for price charts. If the same indicator is used on several charts, it is recommended to place similar indicators in one place on each chart using the same colors. This makes it easier to find and interpret market activity on individual charts.
⏺Sizes and fonts. Bold and clear font makes it easier for traders to read numbers and words. Like colors and layout, font style is a preference, and traders can experiment with different styles and sizes to find a combination that creates the most visually pleasing result. Once convenient labels are found, fonts of the same style and size can be used on all diagrams to ensure continuity.
⚠️It is important to note that technical analysis deals with probabilities, not certainty. There is no combination of indicators that accurately predicts market movements in 100% of cases. While too many indicators or improper use of indicators can blur a trader's view of the markets, traders who use technical indicators carefully and effectively can more accurately determine trading attitudes with high probability, increasing their chances of success in the markets.
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Commodities
Dollar Pops. How to Trade Using Support-Resistance LinesBull market in the Dollar stared on July 13, 2021. This clearly visible on the chart and requires very little explanation. How do we take advantage of this? Simply looking at the support-resistance lines is helpful. When the stock closes above the Blue line, we go long. In this case, dollar as popped almost 12% since the initial alert was issued.
Avoid listening to the news and look at the chart instead!
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How to understand price action.
It is very easy to read price action if you have a reference point. These support/resistance lines are there to help you read where the buyers and sellers are likely to make a stand.
You can also think of these indicators as moving pivot points .
MasterChartsTrading Price Action Indicators show good price levels to enter or exit a trade.
The Blue indicator line serves as a Bullish Trend setter.
If your instrument closes above the Blue line, we think about going Long (buying).
For commodities and Forex, when your trading instrument closes below the Red line, we think about Shorting (selling).
For Stocks, I prefer to use the Yellow line as my Bearish Trend setter (on Daily charts ). A stock has to close below the Yellow line first, then rally towards the Red line and top out there. This is where I would short it.
CL1! - How I approach my analysisA Trader asked me, if I could show how I approach my analysis. And this is what this Video is about.
At the end we even have a potential trade and definitely a chart to observe.
What you will see is:
- the big picture
- swings
- Andrews Pitchfork
- the sine-wave pattern
...and even the classic Head & Shoulder, which reveille where the meat is.
Let's start...
FOMO - Analysis from a Trading Psychologist FOMO.
Fear of Missing Out. We have all heard this phrase. It could pertain to that VERY LAST concert of your favorite band in the middle of the week and coming late to work the next day. Scrolling through Instagram and making a split-second purchase that never works out. We get the idea.
I can feel FOMO’s omnipresence in the trading world right now. We have seen some large career changing moves in commodities as of late. Extend the lookback time a few years and we could probably open a FOMO Crypto clinic, complete with padded rooms. Why didn’t I catch that move in Euro Power? I can’t just sit here and watch my neighbor get rich; I missed the only opportunity to make money!
Well, Crude Oil, Gold and Wheat all taught traders suffering from FOMO a healthy lesson these past few weeks. Or are they doomed to repeat it again? Traders rarely want to admit weakness, but it’s essential to becoming profitable. Hi. My name is Paul Wankmueller, and sometimes I suffer from FOMO.
I decided to turn to my favorite trading psychologists, Brett Steenbarger, PhD. Brett has been in the trading game since the late 1970’s and his Nov 21’ speech on Trading Fomo piqued my interest. Below is a summary of what I took away from it, and some preventative ailments attributed to Brett’s psychological evidence-based outcomes.
FOMO is a PnL Killer! At its core FOMO is a fear. The problem is not that we missed the trade, it’s that our brains perceive that missed trade as a threat to our future, our success, our reputation. When humans are afraid of something, or see a threat, it produces anxiety. This fear takes blood away from the part of the brain where higher level thinking takes place and sends it to the part that impulsive thinking lives. There WILL be poor decision making under the influence of anxiety. The key to solving this issue is to take the threat out of the situation.
Solutions:
Taking a break from the screen is healthy but it is not a long-term fix. Brett explains how to train in exposure therapy (His presentation explains this in greater depth.) Slow breathing and visualization are more adept at battling FOMO. If you can visualize a calming place or situation and pair it with that fear, daily practice and dedication will prevent blood flow to the impulse zone. Gradually, when FOMO comes around, you will experience feelings of safety. Combined with expanding your time of reference, understanding, and acknowledging FOMO will make those events look like potholes on a long highway.
Missing a trade is a bummer, but is that going to end my career? No. Will buying at the top, and then being so irate that I add to a losing trade and forgo stop orders end my career? It might. Will I be thinking clearly on my next trade with a fresh mistake permeating my thoughts? Nope. The best motivation to avoid FOMO is to develop emotional hate towards the negative consequences of it. In the fullness of time, the desire to avoid negative outcomes becomes self-reinforcing with repetition and therefore cements as an internal priority. This works across the board in other life scenarios as well.
Tapping into other motivations besides PnL is one that really hit home with me as well. Brett dives into the desire to learn and grow as a greater motivator than just PnL alone. This addition will create a dual purpose to each trade. You are diversifying your outcome! If you come away from a trade with a negative PnL, but with a positive learning experience, you are building your LC (Learning Capital). With time under this premise, your LC will be indistinguishable from your monetary statement.
Instead of tying your value as a trader strictly to your PnL, tie your value to your consistency and risk management. The magnitude of your PnL is nothing without consistency. Risk management begets larger positions, lower drawdowns, and an overall better quality of work life.
A day comes with myriad experiences. Maybe you woke up next to the love of your life, saw your kids off to school, got an extra good boy wag of the tail from the pup, the list goes on. Create a diversified life with people and activities that fulfill you outside of trading and your trading will improve. Reminding yourself daily of this is important.
Tying all of this together is the practice of keeping a daily ABCD Journal.
A- Activating Event – What got you upset? - Missing the trade in this case.
B- Beliefs about the event – Little voice in your head – Why is this upsetting to you? “Other people are getting ahead of me, I’m not as good as they are”
C- Consequences from the event – How does negative thinking affect your subsequent trading? I’m so upset about missing the opportunity I go ahead and miss the next one!
Becoming proficient in ABC will allow you to recognize the triggering event in real time. You begin to identify the negative beliefs and become a pro at understanding the magnitude of the consequences. You can change the pattern of your behavior because the consequences are so front and center.
D- [Disputation- You are talking back at that negative thinking. How would you talk to someone you care about who is in that situation? Mentoring a teammate that missed a big play involves constructively lifting them up and helping them learn from it with a comforting tone. You aren’t going to beat them up.
I welcome all feedback and am also here if you want to chat about a particular experience. Happy Trading!
-Paul Wankmueller, CMT
Cup and Handle Trading Pattern 📉📉📉✅ A cup and handle is a technical chart pattern that resembles a cup and handle where the cup is in the shape of a "u" and the handle has a slight downward drift. A cup and handle is considered a bullish signal extending an uptrend, and it is used to spot opportunities to go long.
🎯 Cup Handle Pattern
William O'Neil's Cup with Handle is a bullish continuation pattern that marks a consolidation period followed by a breakout. ... The cup forms after an advance and looks like a bowl or rounding bottom. As the cup is completed, a trading range develops on the right-hand side and the handle is formed
🎯 What happens after cup and handle pattern?
If a cup and handle pattern is confirmed, it will be followed by a bullish price move upward. You can pick a price target based on the size of the cup, but it becomes much less clear what will happen after the initial breakout from the cup and handle pattern.
🎯 How reliable is cup and handle pattern?
The accuracy rate for cup and handle pattern for forex and stock on Daily timeframe are 65% and 68% respectively.
Classic Trend Reversal Patterns📚
✅It is difficult to overestimate the importance of the classic continuation and reversal patterns. For a real trader trading on the Forex market, it is huge, because these patterns make it possible to predict the behaviour of the price.
⚠️If one of the trend continuation patterns appears in front of us on the chart, it means that the usual correction (rollback) is taking place. After its completion, it becomes possible to profitably enter the market at the existing rate.
📈📉Head & Shoulders
🟢The Head and shoulders pattern is a reversal pattern that is usually formed during a bullish trend and creates a top — the first shoulder. After the correction, the price creates a higher top — the head. After the next correction, the price creates a third top, which is below the head — the second shoulder. So, we have two shoulders and a head in the middle.
🟢Of course, the head and shoulders reversal pattern has its inverse equivalent, which turns bearish trends into bullish ones. This pattern is called the Inverted Head and Shoulders pattern.
🟢Confirmation of the pattern occurs when the price breaks the line that runs through two bases on either side of the head. This line is called the neckline. When the price overcomes the neck line, we get a reversal signal.
📊Double Top and Double Bottom
🟢A double top consists of two peaks on the chart. These peaks are either at the same resistance level, or the second peak is slightly lower. A sample of a double top usually looks like the letter "M".
🟢A double top has its opposite, which is called a double bottom. This model consists of two bases, which are either located at the same support level, or the second base is slightly higher. The double bottom pattern usually looks like the letter "W".
🟢Confirmation of the Double top pattern comes at the moment when the price breaks through the minimum between the two tops. This level is marked by a line on the chart and is called a signal line.
🟢The stop loss order should be placed directly above the second top. The minimum profit target is equal to the distance between the neck and the center line that connects the two tops.
❗️The double bottom looks and works exactly the same.
💎Diamond
🟢It is quite difficult to see this pattern on a real chart – it looks like a standard flat, but with unstable volatility. A diamond means, at least, medium-term market uncertainty, when the probability of movement in any direction is almost the same. But the longer it takes to form, the stronger the breakdown and the subsequent trend will be.
☕️Cup with Handle
🟢The cup with handle pattern is considered a bullish continuation pattern, so it is necessary to determine the previous uptrend. This can be done by analyzing price dynamics or technical indicators, such as moving averages.
The cup should be more U-shaped, not V-shaped, and the upper points on both sides of the cup should be approximately at the same level.
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RISK ON vs RISK OFF ‼️Risk-on risk-off is an investment setting in which price behavior responds to and is driven by changes in investor risk tolerance. Risk-on risk-off refers to changes in investment activity in response to global economic patterns.
During periods when risk is perceived as low, the risk-on risk-off theory states that investors tend to engage in higher-risk investments. When risk is perceived to be high, investors have the tendency to gravitate toward lower-risk investments.
RISK ON - is when investor are looking to multiply their money, they are looking for RISK. MORE RISK - MORE MONEY
RISK OFF - is when investors are looking to keep/save their money, they are looking to protect more than to RISK. MORE PROTECTION - LESS MONEY
Energy & Inflation - The Chickens Come Home to RoostThe worldwide pandemic gripped the markets two years ago, throwing the global economy into a brief tailspin. In hindsight, the decline in markets across all assets seems like the blink of an eye. At the time, it felt like an eternity.
Crude oil explodes and becomes very volatile
Natural gas at an unseasonal high
Coal reached a new record peak
US energy policy lit the fuse
Ukraine and inflation are pouring fuel on the fire
Energy demand evaporated, sending landlocked NYMEX crude oil below zero for the first time since trading began in the 1980s. Seaborne Brent petroleum fell to the lowest price of this century at $16 per barrel. Natural gas dropped to a twenty-five-year low at $1.432 per MMBtu, and coal prices fell under $40 per ton.
Central Bank liquidity and government stimulus that stabilized the economy ignited a recovery that began lifting prices. Two years later, the meltdown turned into a melt-up as raging inflation and the first significant war on European soil since World War II turned one crisis into another. The chickens came home to roost in the energy markets as prices went from famine to feast for producers and feast to famine for consumers.
Crude oil explodes and becomes very volatile
In March 2022, crude oil rose to the highest price since 2008 and blew through the $100 per barrel level as a hot knife goes through butter.
The monthly chart shows that after probing above $100 in late February, nearby NYMEX crude oil futures rose to $130.50 in March, before pulling back to just below the triple digit price at the end of last week.
The quarterly chart shows that the energy commodity rose for the eighth consecutive quarter in Q1 2022.
Nearby Brent crude oil futures, the benchmark for European, African, Middle Eastern, and Russian petroleum, exploded to $139.13 per barrel in March before pulling back to the $104 level on the June futures contract.
While crude oil corrected from the high, the price has been highly volatile, with $10 daily trading ranges becoming the norm instead of the exception.
Natural gas at an unseasonal high
The natural gas market moves into the injection season in late March as heating demand declines. March tends to be a bearish time in the natural gas market because of the energy commodity’s seasonality.
The monthly chart shows that nearby natural gas futures rose to a high of $5.832 in March, the highest level during the month that ends the withdrawal season since 2008. On April 1, the price was over the $5.70 per MMBtu level, more than double the level at the start of April 2021.
Coal reached a new record peak
Coal, the fossil fuel that environmentalists consider a four-letter energy commodity, rose to a new record high in March.
The monthly chart of thermal coal futures for delivery in Rotterdam, the Netherlands, shows the price reached a record $465 per ton in March before correcting to the $265.40 level. Meanwhile, the price remained above the previous record high from July 2008 at $224 per ton.
US energy policy lit the fuse
As the energy demand made a comeback from the lows during the second half of 2020, the change in US administrations planted very bullish seeds for fossil fuel prices. The shift in US energy policy was symbolic and real. On his first day in office on January 21, 2021, President Biden signed an executive order canceling the Keystone XL pipeline, fulfilling his campaign pledge to address climate change. Environmentalists and progressive Democrats called the US addiction to hydrocarbons an existential threat.
In 2021 and 2022, the administration banned drilling and fracking for oil and gas on Alaska’s federal lands and tightened regulations on hydrocarbon production. All the while, the demand for gas, oil, and coal was rising. OPEC+, the international oil cartel, and its partner Russia maintained production cuts as they received a gift from the US administration. In March 2020, USD petroleum output led the world at 13.1 million barrels per day. The shift in US energy policy to favor alternative and renewable fuels and inhibit hydrocarbon production and consumption handed the pricing power back to OPEC+ on a silver platter. After decades of striving for energy independence, the US surrendered it in a matter of months.
As the price rose, the Biden Administration continued to pander to its party’s progressive wing with green energy rhetoric while begging the cartel to increase output thrice. On each occasion, OPEC+ not so politely refused, and the oil price continued to rise. Meanwhile, natural gas and coal shortages pushed those commodities to multi-year highs.
The bottom line is that while addressing climate change is a noble cause, it is a multi-decade project. The US and worldwide consumers continue to depend on the hydrocarbons that power the globe. The shift in energy policy planted very bullish seeds where oil wells, gas fields, and coal mines once produced the energy commodities on US soil. An unexpected event made the prices combustible.
Ukraine and inflation are pouring fuel on the fire
In previous articles before the invasion, we wrote that the February 4 meeting between China’s President Xi and Russian President Vladimir Putin was a “watershed event.” The $117 billion trade agreement was secondary to the “no-limits” support deal.
Twenty days after the leaders shook hands at the Beijing Winter Olympics opening ceremony, Russia invaded Ukraine launching a bloody and devasting war that created a massive schism in the geopolitical landscape. Sanctions on Russia, retaliatory measures, and heated rhetoric ignited an explosive fuse in fossil fuel markets.
In crude oil, the price rose as Russia is a leading producer. Supply concerns pushed the Brent and WTI futures markets into backwardations where deferred prices were lower than prices for nearby delivery. The price eclipsed the $100 per barrel level for the first time since 2014 and reached the highest price since 2008. Asian and European natural gas prices were trading at much higher levels than the US Henry Hub price before Russia’s invasion. Meanwhile, European natural gas prices exploded to a new record peak in March.
The chart of ICE UK natural gas futures speaks for itself with the explosive move to a record peak in March. LNG changed the US natural gas market over the past years, expanding its reach beyond the North American pipeline network. LNG now travels the world by ocean tankers, making US domestic prices more sensitive to worldwide levels. In the wake of Russian aggression and European sanctions, Europe is attempting to wean itself from its addiction to Russian natural gas, increasing the need for US LNG imports. The increase in demand has put upward pressure on US natural gas prices and downward pressure on inventories, which were over 14% below the five-year average for the week ending on March 25, 2022.
In the coal market, China and India have had a healthy appetite for the dirtiest fossil fuel. Moreover, rising oil and natural gas prices put upward pressure on coal, a less expensive alternative.
Meanwhile, rising inflation is causing production costs to rise as labor, equipment, and all other aspects of extracting fossil fuels and all commodities from the earth’s crust have skyrocketed. Rising energy prices are a root cause of increasing inflation, but it has become a vicious cycle that also impacts energy output costs. The February US inflation data ran at the highest level in over four decades.
Last week, the US President announced the release of one million barrels per day from the US strategic petroleum reserve. Taping the supplies could run 180 days, making it the most significant use of the SPR in history. Meanwhile, over the past decades, most SPR releases have not pushed prices lower, and some have caused rallies in the oil futures market.
US energy policy planted bullish seeds for fossil fuel prices in early 2021. It did not take long for the chickens to come home to roost. Now that consumers are pay $4, $5, $6, and $7 per gallon for gasoline, the administration calls higher prices the Russian President’s fault, a convenient political ploy. The perfect bullish storm in energy began long before Russian troops rolled over Ukraine’s border. The Russian leader and sanctions poured fuel on an already raging inflationary fire in the energy markets. However, US energy, monetary, and fiscal policies were the original arsonists. The base prices for oil, gas, and coal will remain elevated for as long as the eye can see. Buying dips is likely to be the optimal approach to the sector. Since corrections in commodities markets can be brutal, adjust your risk-reward horizons to reflect wide price variance.
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Trading advice given in this communication, if any, is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that we believe are reliable. The author does not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects the author’s good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice the author provides will result in profitable trades. There is risk of loss in all futures and options trading. Any investment involves substantial risks, including, but not limited to, pricing volatility , inadequate liquidity, and the potential complete loss of principal. This article does not in any way constitute an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any investment, security, or commodity discussed herein, or any security in any jurisdiction in which such an offer would be unlawful under the securities laws of such jurisdiction.
Be Careful - Gold’s Current Trading RangeFor the past two weeks Gold has been ranging between the prices 1945.00 and 1897.00 as illustrated above.
A strong, short-term trend has been set, and should be kept in mind when trading the pairing during more volatile times as this to ensure maximum profits and as little loss as possible.
It is very likely that Gold will continue ranging between these prices until we see strong price indicators otherwise.
A price break of 1963.00 would more than likely signal bullish momentum and that it safe to take buys above this price.
A price break of 1890.00 would more than likely signal bearish movement, and that it safe to buy dips.
I hope this helps. Trade safely and let me know what you think in the comments.
Stochastic Trading Indicator 📉📉📉📉 The Stochastic Oscillator is a momentum indicator that shows the location of the close relative to the high-low range over a set number of periods. The indicator can range from 0 to 100. The closing price tends to close near the high in an uptrend and near the low in a downtrend.
📉 The stochastic indicator is a two-line indicator that can be applied to any chart. It fluctuates between 0 and 100. The indicator shows how the current price compares to the highest and lowest price levels over a predetermined past period.
📉 How do you use a stochastic indicator?
How to use the Stochastic indicator and “predict” market turning points
If the price is above 200-period moving average (MA), then look for long setups when Stochastic is oversold.
If the price is below 200-period moving average (MA), then look for short setups when Stochastic is overbought.
📉 The Bottom Line. While relative strength index was designed to measure the speed of price movements, the stochastic oscillator formula works best when the market is trading in consistent ranges. Generally speaking, RSI is more useful in trending markets, and stochastics are more useful in sideways or choppy markets.
What do you think ? Comment below..
Analyst and Trader. What are the differences?👨🎓👩🎓
✅Trading on the market consists of two different, but equally important tasks, namely: market analysis and the ability to trade.
✅Market analysis is a technical or fundamental analysis of price movements in the market, and trading is the ability to competently place orders for the purchase or sale of various market assets in order to make trading as profitable as possible. Most traders do not take into account the difference between market analysis and trading rules. But knowing these differences can significantly increase the profitability of your trading system or, at least, will help to avoid significant mistakes initially.
🟢Analyst or trader?
❗️When making transactions on the stock exchange, traders often consider themselves both an experienced trader and an analyst at the same time, since they perform all the analyses and trading independently. But not every trader can be experienced in both tasks at once. Some stock speculators analyze the market very well, but make mistakes when trading, and vice versa, not strong market analysts successfully make entries and exits from the market.
❗️Therefore, very often, one person can be an excellent market analyst, but his trading system falls apart under the pressure of incorrectly executed transactions (i.e. placement and management of already completed transactions). While another trader may not be strong in market analytics, but has a psychological profile that is ideal for making trades.
⚠️At the same time, both those and others can make a constant profit by following the rules in their trading systems.
🟢Why is this happening?
The thing is that analysis and trading are very different tasks and require different psychological traits. For example, market analysis as a separate task does not bring either profit or loss, since market analysis itself cannot lose capital, so this activity does not carry emotions associated with it (for example, fear or greed). On the other hand, trading, as an isolated task, brings either profit or loss, that is, by making purchases, there is an opportunity to lose partially or completely trading capital. Therefore, those emotions that are not applicable to market analysis are very relevant for trading.
🟢Trade Partnership
❗️One of the solutions to overcome the differences between analysis and trading in the market is to find your opposite and form a potentially very profitable trading partnership. For example, if you are a good market analyst (i.e. you can identify potentially profitable trades), forming a partnership with a trader, i.e. with someone who is not able to perform correct market analysis, but can competently make and manage transactions without succumbing to emotional traps. Such an alliance can be much more beneficial for both.
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The Journey of a Trader 🛣🚶
Hey traders,
Why 95% of traders fail?
In this post, we will discuss the trader's road to success and why most of the traders give up at the halfway point.
On the chart, I was trying to portray the journey of a trader:
most of the traders start this game with gambling.
They randomly buy and sell the market relying on their intuition and with a high degree of probability end up with nice cush.💰
However, as they proceed they realize that the profits that they made were the product of luck, not skill. 🍀
The more they trade, the less they win.
At some moment losing trades start to outperform winners.
Trying different things, jumping from one strategy to another, one comes to the conclusion that nothing seems to work.🙅♂️
He goes broke, he is panicking.
At that stage, the majority blame the market for their failure.
Forex, stocks, gold trading is complete scam.
Making profits on the market is not possible.
They give up and leave.👣
Only 5% are persistent. Only 5% are blaming themselves not the market for their failure.
They start following a strict trading plan, they follow risk management recommendations of pro traders and at some moment they start making 0.📝
Buying and selling the market, at the end of the day, they don't lose anymore.
That is the most important milestone in a trader's journey.
Realizing that the one stopped losing, a trader starts polishing and improving his rules in order to achieve better results.
He trains and works with his psyche.💪
After years of struggling, one finally contemplates a consistent account growth.
He became a pro trader.🏆
I wish you to be persistent, traders and don't give up.
Patience pay and at the end of the day winners win.
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GOLD: the BULLISH case for 2022, the simplicity versionhi, hello fellow traders,
to be positional gold owner, there is only one need, to trust gold to be a reliable store of value for our capital/wealth to time frame of decades.
as most of the funds using gold as store of value and are not really busy trading it too often, but only at meaningful levels for their portfolio as whole (== balancing), we are left with the short term casino "black or red" but the casino always wins. some insist to call it trading, it is not, it is simply moving between levels of liquidity providers (== market makers) who make their money from two factors, execution of orders and triggering of stop losses. this is the simple but cruel reality of the daily gold market 210 sessions per year (the other +/- 40 sessions are for balancing of the "big boys"). of course, other markets with the principal of 'value store' work with the same principal. remember, chances are very low that your broker has institutional account with the FEDERAL RESERVE, it means that your broker's liquidity provider is LARGE BANKING/FINANCIAL establishment that have the direct account with the FEDERAL RESERVE. your funds as trader are actually the guarantees your broker provides to his liquidity provider. in the food chain, the BIG BOYS want your broker with your money, they will make sure that your broker have the grounds to "collect" new high leveraged clients on regular base. just pay attention. they warn you in advance that highly leveraged clients lose, they do say that very clearly! - which from their perspective means, 'I warned you, feel free to try how long it takes before you get wiped'.
I hope I managed to explain the chain of liquidity with simple words.
from here, one must pick a clear stand, gold goes UP or DOWN for the duration of choice or as much the capital of trader is enough. that makes SCALPING the most efficient form of trading gold!
the chart represents the BULLISH case for gold for this year (2022) based on the price action since 2018 when the FED raised their rates for the last time and continued with their endless printing of trillions.
in case you are not looking for physical gold holding, and daily trading is not really your best of talents, and still willing to place a bet on the gold market, why not DECEMBER/2022 C1860 (== CALL $1860) options? - you know in advance all of your bet, you know well in advance the worst case scenario, and you get loads of free time to trade financial instruments that trade according to much faster moving fundamentals.
trading gold with leverage is a terrible idea, as at least 210 sessions per year are pure noise sessions. the chart shows that clearly.
therefore, good luck!
questions, need a clarification, do not hesitate to ask
What are Moving Averages & how to make money on them?📚
🟢The main rule of using Moving Average is to track the general direction of the moving average: it indicates the dominant trend in the market. It is worth making deals only in the direction of this movement. Such a simple rule makes the moving average method a convenient tool for short-term forecasting.
🟢A universal tool in almost all markets is a simple moving average (SMA) with a 200-day averaging period. A longer-term moving average will allow you to see the global rise or fall of the asset, avoid short-term fluctuations or minor consolidation of the exchange rate. As a rule, short moving averages allow you to react more actively to price movements and are designed to search for short-term trends. When analyzing the price chart on a daily or even shorter interval, many traders use "fast" EMAS with different averaging periods (5, 7, 13, 21, 50).
✅To date, there are many recommendations for the period of the moving average (3, 5, 7, 13, 21, ...), as well as methods of its calculation (SMA, WMA, EMA). The general postulates are as follows:
✅The "faster" the MA (EMA) and the shorter the calculation period (3, 5, 13, ...), the more likely it is to receive false or ambiguous signals;
✅The "slower" the MA (SMA) and the longer the calculation period (50, 100, ...), the more likely the moving average is to lag behind the real state of affairs in the market.
❗️The moving average method is still a universal way to determine the trend in the asset market. Ease of use and unambiguous interpretation of the result allow the investor to determine the prevailing trend with a high degree of probability. This minimizes the risk of making unprofitable deals. The use of the method as an independent tool when deciding on a transaction is controversial, since all possible successful combinations of the intersection of moving averages or the average and the asset price are subject to cyclicity and sometimes give false or ambiguous signals.
❤️ Please, support our work with like & comment! ❤️
A perfect example of Bearish Bat patternAs you can see in the weekly charts Gold has made a bearish bat pattern and has reached the first target..!
Further correction in the high inflation era is less likely..! do not count on the 2nd and 3rd targets..!
Always consider the probability of something happening, and Keep in mind nothing is impossible in the market!!!
Best,
Dr. Moshkelgosha M.D
DISCLAIMER
I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor, a certified financial analyst, an economist, a CPA, an accountant, or a lawyer. I’m not a finance professional through formal education. The contents on this site are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, accounting, or legal advice. I can’t promise that the information shared on my posts is appropriate for you or anyone else. By using this site, you agree to hold me harmless from any ramifications, financial or otherwise, that occur to you as a result of acting on information found on this site.
goldIn a side conversation with my friend the gold trader
Or in parentheses ( the person who distributes and sells gold to gold shops )
I asked him: Do you receive gold from the price of 2070
He replied and said it is impossible only if this gold is for me personally and not for my work
I asked him why, he said, because this is what happened to us two years ago
1 Merchant like 100 merchants with one rule
And if you want to know why 2070 resisted the rise, you have to know that gold is a commodity governed by traders in the first place, 50% of the gold is with them
And when the merchant refuses to buy from the market by this price
This is a normal reaction to drop for $100
, I did not leave him, and I asked him what if he came back and retested 2070 . He said, “We will do the same thing again.”
buy if the price of gold breaks 2070, it will turn into Future
Like what happened with oil, when its price was negative
I asked him when will you buy, he said when a strong bounce occurs again, like 70 with 100 dollars, then we will buy again and cover ourselves with 100 dollars, an upward movement
Look, I made it easy to talk as much as I could
If you understand this is a good thing, but if you do not get angry, then this is normal because the subject is difficult
Seasonal Futures Market Patterns Corn SoybeansSeasonal Futures Market Patterns Corn Soybeans
Hey traders today I wanted to go over the best Seasonal Patterns in the Corn & Soybeans Futures Market. Corn and Soybeans and other grain markets follow an annual reliable seasonal pattern revolving around supply demand planting cycles. Knowing when to find these seasonal market patterns on your charts can really benefit us in our trading of Corn and Soybeans.
Enjoy!
Trade Well,
Clifford
GOLD PRICEHello!
In difficult times, investors become interested in gold, as has been done for a long time.
But what factors affect the price of gold?
Let's try to find out today.
Reserves of the Central Bank
Central banks hold fiat currency, but gold is also held in reserve.
Ever since the US went off the gold standard, central banks have been building up their gold holdings.
Overall, governments bought a total of 650 tons of gold in 2019, down from the 656 tons bought in 2018, and still at 50-year highs.
US dollar value
The strength of the dollar affects the price of gold.
If the dollar is strong, then the price of gold is usually low.
If the dollar is weak, the price of gold rises.
As a result, gold is often seen as a hedge against inflation.
As inflation rises, so does the price of gold.
Global demand for jewelry and industry
In 2019, jewelry accounted for more than half of the demand for gold, which was equal to 440 tons.
In addition, 7.5% of demand is related to technology and industry, where gold is used to make equipment.
These directions, their growth or decline, strongly influence the price of gold.
Welfare Protection
In times of crisis, gold has always been considered a "safe haven" for investors' funds.
Time passes and gold is still being used, and even the arrival of bitcoin has not changed the situation much.
When the expected or actual yields of bonds, stocks and real estate fall, interest in investing in gold may increase, causing its price to rise.
In addition, it is believed that gold provides protection during periods of political instability.
Investment demand
In addition to the central bank, gold is owned by exchange-traded funds that issue shares available for purchase and sale to investors.
SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) is the largest holding over 1,078 tons of gold in March 2021. In general, gold purchases from various investment vehicles in 2019 amounted to 1271.7 tons, which is more than 29%. of the total demand for gold.
Gold production
Major players in global gold mining include China, South Africa, the US, Australia, Russia and Peru.
The production of gold in the world affects the price of gold, which is another example of supply and demand being met.
The mine's gold production was approximately 3,260 tons in 2018, up from 2,500 in 2010.
Every year it is more and more difficult to mine gold, and this also affects the price.
conclusions
Gold, after several centuries, is still used not only as jewelry, but also for investment.
Every year, the price of production is growing, banks are accumulating gold in their reserves, crises and other factors are raising the price of gold.
Using the data, you can predict the rise or fall of prices.
In any case, nothing more expensive than information has yet been invented.
Good luck!
Traders, if you liked this idea or if you have your own opinion about it, write in the comments. I will be glad 👩
GOLD'S NEXT MOVE?Little educational post for you guys! If my analysis is correct & the current uptrend is Wave 5, an effective way to estimate how far this last bullish cycle will go is to go back & look at Wave 1, when Gold first started its uptrend in 2006. Wave 1 & Wave 5 tend to be very similar in how many PIPS they move, with a few hundreds PIPS difference which is very accurate for higher TF analysis.
I have done this on my chart & it shows me where Wave 5 will possibly end before correcting itself over the next few years! Do this for yourself & you'll find the results you're looking for. I have covered out the price it could go to as it'll only be exclusive on the Market Breakdown Report for Investors. Markets are looking juicy for the foreseeable future🦾
Three White Soldiers Candlestick ✅✅✅Three white soldiers is a bullish candlestick pattern that is used to predict the reversal of the current downtrend in a pricing chart. The pattern consists of three consecutive long-bodied candlesticks that open within the previous candle's real body and a close that exceeds the previous candle's high.
🎯 To identify the three white soldiers pattern, look for three consecutive green or white candlesticks. Each must open and close progressively higher than the first. The candlesticks should have big bodies and very small (or no) wicks. As mentioned, you are likely to see the pattern at the bottom of a downtrend.
✅ What Do Three White Soldiers Tell You?
The three white soldiers candlestick pattern suggests a strong change in market sentiment in terms of the stock, commodity or pair making up the price action on the chart. When a candle is closing with small or no shadows, it suggests that the bulls have managed to keep the price at the top of the range for the session. Basically, the bulls take over the rally all session and close near the high of the day for three consecutive sessions. In addition, the pattern may be preceded by other candlestick patterns suggestive of a reversal, such as a doji.
✅ Limitations of Using Three White Soldiers
Three white soldiers can also appear during periods of consolidation, which is an easy way to get trapped in a continuation of the existing trend rather than a reversal. One of the key things to watch is the volume supporting the formation of three white soldiers. Any pattern on low volume is suspect because it is the market action of the few rather than the many.
To combat the limitation of visual patterns, traders use the three white soldiers and other such candlestick patterns in conjunction with other technical indicators like trendlines, moving averages and bands. For example, traders may look for areas of upcoming resistance before initiating a long position or look at the level of volume on the breakout to confirm that there was a high amount of dollar volume transacting. If the pattern occurred on low volume with near-term resistance, traders may wait until there is further confirmation of a breakout to initiate a long position.
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📊 What is Market Seasonality ? 🎯 Seasonality refers to particular time frames when stocks/sectors/indices are subjected to and influenced by recurring tendencies that produce patterns that are apparent in the investment valuation.
🎯 Seasonality is a characteristic of a time series in which the data experiences regular and predictable changes that recur every calendar year. Any predictable fluctuation or pattern that recurs or repeats over a one-year period is said to be seasonal.
📊 What is a Seasonality Forecast?
In time series data, seasonality refers to the presence of variations which occur at certain regular intervals either on a weekly basis, monthly basis, or even quarterly (but never up to a year). Various factors may cause seasonality - like a vacation, weather, and holidays
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✅ You can use the Market Seasonality as an extra fundamental confluence for the price, we have 2 market seasonalities bullish and bearish. If a price has bullish seasonality it means the pariticular asset will tend to rise during that cycle and viceversa. Market Seasonality (MS) is a good tool to have in your arsenal but only if you are trading on a mid-long term perspective. You can't trade using the market seasonality on a scalping or a intra-day basis because it makes no sense.
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GOLD - XAUUSD strategyhello everyone today i just started posting strategies and this is my first video with a great strategy i have backtest it and i trade using this strategy for 3 years and i got a great result. i have more other strategies also i'll share with you. please support me watch my video like and a comment if you have any question about the strategy.
Trade Defensively 🔰🔰🔰 🔰 Trading Defensively
• Proper Lot Size
Stop changing the lot size on each trade you take based on the ,, confluences,, your risk should be pre-determined and fixed.
Example you risk only 0.50% from your account on each trade
• Take Profits before News Release
Number one goal is to protect your equity, news can bring high volatility into the markets and random big moves. It is better to fix your profit or move your stoploss to breakeven before important news release
• Use Trailing Stops
Secure the profits and let your winners run, you can apply this strategy when you are already in profit and want to squeeze more from the trade
• Multiple Take Profits
Remember that a win is still a WIN, you dont need big profits to be profitable in the market. You need small consistent wins and over time you will see the difference
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