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GOLD TRADING GAUGE | EASY TO OBSERVEThe 'Why' Insight: The other way to keep your money is to put it in a savings account or into bonds that aren't very risky and will pay you interest. People who invest in gold lose money when interest rates go up because the yields on savings accounts and bonds also go up, which makes gold less appealing as a long-term investment. It is very important to look at the interest rate when you are trying to figure out how much gold is worth. Storage costs and insurance are two more things to think about. The price of the commodity will be the sum of all of these things. Thereafter, how the price moves depends on things like the movement of the US Dollar and things like demand and supply. Warning: This is the broader view, not the detail spesific method for entry.
TVC:GOLDEducation
by TradingCocktail
RISK MANAGEMENT - WHAT WOULD YOU CHOOSE? 🤑🤑🤑🤑🤑 Hi traders! Introduction - I was reading a few articles around risk management, the psychology off a successful trader & common mistakes traders who fail make. I stumbled across a concept which I thought resonated with me and made me really think about my psychology towards risk management and I thought I would share it with you. I hope this is just as fascinating to you as it was to me, and it has some intrinsic value to you. Why is risk management important in Trading? Trading in general can be regarded as a high-risk activity compared to not trading at all which would be regarded as having virtually no risk to any principal money you may have. For this reason, I would regard risk management to be the most important concept in any type off trading regardless off strategy, instrument & individual ability. Let’s look at the definition of risk management: “Risk management involves identifying, analyzing, accepting and/or mitigating trading decision uncertainty.” – Yahoo Finance To summaries we know trading is risky, therefore risk management is a tool to control that risk & staying in control is the most important thing that you must never forget. This is going to be the reason why the almost 90% of traders fail and why only 10% manage to achieve some sort off “success” from trading and its all to do with risk. Now I know for sure we can all think back to a time where we fell into this trap, but the important thing is learning from that lesson. 90% of traders will lose more on their losing trades than they win on their winning trades and that’s why they are not in the 10% of “successful” traders Understanding decision making from winning & losing Here’s the way it goes: Say I offered you a very simple wager and that wager was based on the flip of a coin. All you must do is predict whether the coin will land on heads or land on tails. The same principal activity off trading in its most basic form. Will price go up or will price go down? A simple 50/50 chance off being right regardless of what strategy you use right. Here comes the interesting part, the part that changes everything. The wager Say I decide to give you two choices, we will label these option A and option B. Now remember we already know what we’re doing is risky, but our aim is to maximize profit and minimize losing and put our money to work. Now thinking logically Option A is the one which maximizes our profit (which is our goal). That doesn’t make Option B wrong however as this option means you are guaranteed to make a profit you just aren’t maximizing what you could make. You will not be surprised that in this scenario then more than likely the most popular option is option B. Guaranteed profit with little to no risk. That’s a thumbs up from a risk management perspective. Here’s where I’ll highlight why 90% off traders fail. Let’s turn this scenario upside down and on its head and instead of talking making profit lets talk about making a loss. Now before I fully explain it lets put it into the concept of trading. Option A – A trade is going against you. Its about to hit your stop loss and you decide that you’re going to move your stop loss into further loss as there is the potential that you can get back to breakeven and you hate losing money. Option B – A trade is going against you again. Its about to hit your stop loss and you decide that you would rather take the guaranteed loss off -£400 rather than take the risk your loss could exceed. In the second scenario we all know that option B would be the most sensible option as it means we are managing our risk and staying in control of the situation. Remember as I said that’s the most important thing, stay in control. However unlike in scenario one where we are likely to choose option B when it comes to making money in scenario 2 when it comes to losing money, we seem to become risk driven and would rather roll the dice on losing more money for the chance to get out without losing anything at all rather than take the guaranteed risk. The scenario shows the reason I think traders lose more than they win and by understanding the simple concept you can give yourself the best possible chance of long-term success. Remember our goal is not to be right in forex, it is to make money. To make money we need to limit our risk and stay in control. The best way to combat this and to remove the emotional influence is to have predetermined targets. Know where you will get out of a trade; win or lose & don’t allow anything or anyone to influence that pre-determined decision. Hope this was insightful for you and thanks for reading! The Fx Chartist
Education
by TheFxChartist_
2
XAUUSD Wyckoff Accumulation - Don't get caught out!Illustrated above is a break out of an accumulation set up which should see gold recapturing the price levels it fell through last week. The immediate upside price objectives are 1802,1811 and 1828. Last weeks decline found preliminary support (PS) at 1794. This temporary relief is usually followed by what is known as a selling climax (SC) which took gold down to 1786. We saw first signs of exhaustion at this stage confirmed by the automatic rally (AR) back towards the preliminary support (PS) , before a secondary test (ST) saw price retracing back towards the climax lows. What follows next usually leaves an asset temporarily range-bound and is characterised by several rallies and secondary tests; the highest and lowest price points outlining the support and resistance levels for the range. An initial a sign of strength (SOS) signified that a bottom had occurred with buyers emerging. This was subsequently followed by another sell off which often breaks the selling climax (SC) lows briefly. A key indicator to look out for at this stage is volume. Lower volume than during the initial selling climax (SC) indicates a possible (Spring) with confirmation of the Spring being further strengthened by another attempted sell off to the last point of support (LPS) which witnesses price bouncing back off the support line identified during the earlier stages. From this point onwards, price is expected to retrace back up and break out of the range targeting previous levels of distribution. Whilst the longer term technicals and sentiment remain bearish, bulls have the near-term technical advantage. A daily close below 1785 will be required to change this near-term outlook. We can expect for gold to retest the 1828-1834 price level again. A successful break of this could lead bulls back up to the 1855-1860 level. I hope you found this useful, do leave your thoughts in a comment below. As always, a 'like' and 'follow' provides encouragement to share further ideas. Thank you for taking the time. BeyondEdge Your Edge Is Your Perception. Go Beyond.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDEducation
by BeyondEdge
7
Correlation of Different Markets with Forex: CheatsheetOne of the biggest things you should understand as a trader is prices don’t just go up and down (well, maybe on a really small timeframe they’re more chaotic). They’re usually backed by some actions, data and things happening in other markets. This all creates general economic tendencies. But how do we know what affects dollar/currency pair and how? Well, here is a quick cheat sheet for that case. More importantly with an explanation of why. 😊 USD and Gold (negative) Investors prefer to abandon the dollar in favor of gold during times of economic uncertainty. Gold, unlike other assets, retains its inherent worth. Gold and NZD/USD (positive) New Zealand (number 25) is a major gold producer. Gold and AUD/USD (positive) Australia is the world's third-largest gold producer, exporting around $5 billion worth of gold each year. Gold and USD/CAD (negative) Canada is the world's fifth-largest gold producer. When the price of gold rises, the pair tends to fall (CAD is bought). Gold and USD/CHF (negative) Gold backs up more than a quarter of Switzerland's reserves. As gold prices rise, the pair falls (CHF is bought). Oil and USD/CAD (negative) Canada is one of the world's top five oil producers. It exports 5..5 million barrels of oil per day to the United States. As oil prices rise, the pair falls. Bond Yields and USD (positive) Higher bond returns attract greater investment to a country's economy. This makes its native currency more appealing than the currency of another economy, resulting in lower bond yields. Here it’s more about looking out for bond differences between countries. For instance, if bond difference between UK and United States goes down, this will cause GBPUSD fall as well. Gold and EURUSD (positive) Because gold and the euro are both considered "anti-dollars," if gold prices rise, the EUR/USD may rise as well. USD and Stock Market (depends on the market situation, mostly positive) So, here is a little weird one. Strong stock market is an indicator of a strong economy. So as company gets stronger -> stock price goes up -> attracting more international investors to step in, who have to get local currency in order to buy a local stock -> this cases dump of other currency in favor of the currency we’re intending to buy the stocks with (in our case USD). Seems easy? On the other side, people from the local economy dump their dollar/bond holdings to acquire more stocks weaking the currency itself. That’s why it’s a complicated love story. This correlation is quite different depending on the volumes for both cases. Enjoy, family! But keep in mind that these tendencies change to some extent as the world economy shifts/develops. Make sure to always stay updated and observe on your own.
TVC:DXYEducation
by Investroy
13
Big Four Macro Overview Part 3: Commodities: I begin each year reviewing the long term technical positions of the "Big Four." 10 Year rates, SPX, Commodities, and the US Dollar. This is the third of the series. Granted, macro doesn’t typically impact shorter term (swing, daily and weekly) trading, but developing a broad framework to build understanding of market context and to help recognize change in the environment is important. I think of commodities, particularly industrial commodities, as an economic lens. Granted, economic demand isn't the only driver of the commodity cycle, but its an important one. Since the collapse of the commodities super cycle in 2008, the Goldman Sachs Commodities index has traded in a broad range, bounded essentially by the low set during the financial crisis and the resultant 2011 high. It is also worth considering that the pandemic may be somewhat distorting normal interpretation in that at least a portion of the strength may be due to logistic constraints. 1. Price is currently in the (approximate) center of a 14 year range. 2. Lows at points 1, 2 and 3 were created by the great financial crisis in 2008, The oil glut in 2016, and the pandemic in 2020. Clearly this zone, while wide, provides a substantive support floor. 3. The most notable/useful current chart feature is the clear uptrend from the 2020 pandemic low. Until that uptrend is broken, the most immediate trend is to higher prices. In general higher commodities suggest continued economic growth. 4. A break of the uptrend would strongly suggest that economic demand was weakening or that supply constraints were loosening. I think economic demand is the stronger story. 5. It is notable that the MACD momentum oscillator is close to rolling over. a. I divide MACD into four trend states/quadrants (which I promise to will cover in future posts). MACD for this index is currently in the upper right quadrant. This is the quadrant where bullish momentum is weakening. 6. The combination of the uptrend and the lateral support from the October 2018 high and the December 2021 low (504) should act as support. A violation of the support confluence would strongly suggest that, at least for now, the uptrend was complete. Particularly if MACD moved onto a pure sell signal. 7. There is also a break of the trend-line labeled as A-B. We will cover the proper drawing and use in future posts but often, trend lines and what they mean are as much art as science. In this case, while interesting, I don't view it as particularly important. 8. Commodities deserve to be broken down into industrial and energy verses agriculture and softs. The GSCI is 54% energy, 13% Industrial metals, and 28% agricultural. I tend to watch energy and industrial commodities for economic insight. 9. I have also included a chart of JJM. This is a Total Return ETN of industrial metals. I have highlighted the buying climax that occurred in October. The climax behavior offers a strong clue that the uptrend is likely over, at least for now. In future posts I will cover ending action/climax action in depth. Commodities Bottom Line: The uptrend from the pandemic lows represents the economic recovery. But, while the trend higher is intact, it appears to be weakening. My sense of the economy is that the best growth has already occurred as the result of historically supportive fiscal and monetary. Now, both paths are turning restrictive (see the second part of this series for a more in depth discussion) and markets will likely reflect that reality. One of the expressions of that restriction will likely manifest in the form of weaker, particularly industrial, commodities. Good Trading: Stewart Taylor, CMT Chartered Market Technician Shared content and posted charts are intended to be used for informational and educational purposes only. The CMT Association does not offer, and this information shall not be understood or construed as, financial advice or investment recommendations. The information provided is not a substitute for advice from an investment professional. The CMT Association does not accept liability for any financial loss or damage our audience may incur.
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SP:SPGSCIEducation
by CMT_Association
33
Commodities - What are they and how do they work?This article is continuation to the series of educational articles on basic fundamentals in regards to particular asset classes. If you have not read our previous article on stocks, feel welcome to do so: In order to read the article click on the chart above. Commodities are basic goods used in commerce that are interchangeable with other goods of the same type. They are usually refined or used for production of other goods. Commodities can be traded privately or on public market exchange where they must meet specified minimum standards like quality, weight, type, etc. They are great speculative investments which tend to be ruled by cycles and interaction between supply and demand. Classification of commodities In order to distinguish between particular characteristics of each group, commodities can be categorized according to their type and origin. Commodities that are mined or extracted are called hard commodities (oil, gold, silver, etc.) while commodities that are grown are called soft commodities (wheat, rice, livestock, etc.). Though, commodities can be sorted even further into smaller sub-categories. For example, metals can be divided into industrial metals (copper, nickel, iron, etc.) and precious metals (silver, gold and platinum). Additionally, the agricultural sector can be divided into livestock and grains; and the energy sector can be divided into oil, coal and natural gas. Other commodity sectors can be subcategorized in the similar fashion. Raw materials Primary commodities which are unprocessed and serve as input for production of other goods are also called raw materials. Raw materials involve, for example, crude oil, copper, iron, wheat and corn. Commodities exchanges include: Asia Pacific Exchange (APEX) - Singapore Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) - United States Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) - United States Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) - China London Metal Exchange (LME) - United Kingdom National Commodity Exchange Limited (NCEL) - United States New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) - United States Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGEX) - China Correlation Some commodities tend to show correlation with other assets. Such correlation can be positive or negative. Positive correlation means that two assets behave in a similar way. For example, when gold rises then mining stocks rise as well. Contrary to that, negative correlation describes such behavior in which assets move in the opposite direction to each other. For example, when USD/EUR rises then gold in USD tends to decline. Illustration 1.01 Illustration above shows the monthly chart of USOIL. It also shows USDEUR (orange line). Negative correlation between these two assets is observable. When USDEUR falls then USOIL tends to rise. Participants, spot market and derivatives market Commodities are great anti-inflationary assets which are often sought by producers and speculators alike. Producers tend to use commodities with purpose to hedge their risk; furthermore, they often demand delivery of physical goods. Speculators, instead, try to exploit volatile price movements in commodities with the goal to profit from it. Commodities can be bought and sold through the spot market or derivatives market. Spot market simply means buying or selling cash positions while derivatives market involves investing in futures, options, ETFs, etc. Seasonality Some commodities are prone to seasonal cycles which means that they tend to show the same or very similar behavior based on a particular calendar season. For example, in some countries, production of a certain crop may vary during the wet season and drought season. Similarly, heating prices tend to increase during the harsh winter as opposed to during the hot summer. Concept of seasonality is also applicable to commercial and industrial trends. DISCLAIMER: This content serves solely educational purposes.
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by Tradersweekly
7
How to win your continuations and avoid bad tradesHi, Those who follow me know that I only trade with pure price action and volume . If you are someone who also hates the subjectivity of indicators then you'd find this interesting. This is what I look for before taking continuation trades, keep in mind that what's important when you trade like that is the concept of weak high/lows and strong highs/lows. When you find those points all you have to do is trade with the trend then find the last point of supply/demand and take your entry. Hope this helps.
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by MFX_Trading
1
How can I use this trading template? Today I will share a template that may be really helpful to understand some key concepts: First concept: Only look for setups IF the price has reached a major level. In this example, we can see a bearish movement that has reached a weekly level. Why is this relevant? Because if we are working with relevant levels that had worked in the past, we increase the chances of being right regarding an expected movement. Alright, does this mean that I should buy there? ABSOLUTELY NOT; let's go to the second concept Second concept: Once the price has reached a major level, wait for confirmations. Waiting for confirmations means that we have other levels to pay attention to that may provide us solid insights regarding what the price may do next; in this case, we have a descending trendline. A bearish trendline tells us this: Below the line, assume the bearish trend continues; above the line, assume that a possible change in direction may happen. Cool, now is time to buy, right? ABSOLUTELY NOT; let's go to the third concept Third concept: After the breakout of a major structure, WAIT for a correction Most of the time, we will tend to observe a correction after a big structure breakout. That type of behavior can be understood on this template after the breakout. There is a correction happening that we will generally be able to define inner waves; in this case, we have an ABC pattern. Corrections are our final confirmation before engaging with a setup. The position where we tend to observe corrections are in the following places: On the edge of the broken structure / Above the broken structure / On the first minor level after the breakout. Great information! Can I trade now? Yes, now we can define our setup, which takes us to the next concept. Fourth concept: After waiting for several confirmations, we can think about developing setups on the breakout of the corrective pattern (entering above B tends to be an excellent entry-level). Stop loss should always go BELOW C or, in other words, below the last local support zone. Take profit levels can be defined using the next relevant level we may have; these are not the minor levels; I'm speaking the next resistance zone with the same hierarchy as the support we started thinking on bullish opportunities. Fifth concept: This is a template mainly for Swing traders; that's why I wanted to show what to expect in the process between our execution and the take profit level. We may see one or multiple corrections on the way, most of them happening on minor levels. Of course, real trading is much more complex than this, but templates are a good way of understanding concepts and seeing how we can apply this to real market conditions. Another important item I want to highlight is that this type of system tends to have a win rate of around 50%. If we only engage with setups that provide a risk to reward ratio higher or equal than 2, then that's all you need to become profitable. Thanks for reading; if you have any doubts, drop them in the comments, and feel free to share your opinion on this.
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by ThinkingAntsOk
7
Commodities In 2021 and a View for 2022It is official- Inflation is no longer “transitory,” according to the US central bank. After blaming rising prices on pandemic-inspired supply chain bottlenecks throughout 2021, the Federal Reserve swallowed its pride, admitting inflationary pressures are far more structural than “transitory.” Economist Mohamed El Erian called “transitory” the worst call in the Fed’s history. What the Fed, US Treasury, and most mainstream economists have not said is that the blame lies at their feet. The liquidity tidal wave and stimulus tsunami lit the inflationary fuse in 2020 that continues to burn in early 2022. The dollar index may have rallied by 6.34% in 2021, but its appreciation is little more than a mirage. The foreign exchange market conveniently measures one currency’s value against another. The dollar’s ascent may make the greenback the strongest fiat currency, but it is the best horse in the glue factor when it comes to value. All fiats have lost purchasing power since 2020, and the dollar is no exception. The stock market, real estate prices, cryptocurrencies, and commodities have all experienced substantial price appreciation, which is also a mirage. Fiat currency’s purchasing power continues to decline, and that trend remains firmly intact as we head into 2022. Commodity prices began rallying after reaching bottoms in early 2020 as the pandemic swept across the world. The rally continued in 2021 and looks set to take prices to higher lows and higher highs in 2022. 2021 was a very bullish year in the commodities asset class A composite of 29 of the leading and most liquid commodities futures and forwards that trade on the US and UK futures and forwards exchange moved 4.73% higher in Q4 2021 and 26.79% higher in 2021. In Q4, the leading sectors posted the following results: Base metals moved 9.65% higher Grains gained 9.31% Animal proteins moved 4.73% higher Soft commodities appreciated by 4.25% Precious metals posted a 2.80% gain Energy commodities fell 3.02% In 2021, four of the five sectors posted double-digit percentage gains while only precious metals moved lower: Energy was 54.13% higher Base metals gained 38.09% Soft commodities rallied 31.57% Grains moved 29.71% to the upside Animal proteins appreciated by 19.16% Precious metals fell 11.91% The overall performance was highly bullish as inflationary pressure, pandemic-inspired supply chain bottlenecks, and other factors pushed prices to multi-year, or in some cases, new all-time highs. An interesting observation between a commodity composite and the S&P 500 In a sign that inflation pushed all asset prices higher, the performance of the leading stock market index and commodities asset class was virtually the same. The long-term chart of the S&P 500, the most representative stock market index, reflects a 26.89% rise in 2021. The commodity composite that includes the leading precious and base metals, energy, soft, gains, and animal protein markets was 26.79% higher. The results are uncanny but reflect inflation’s impact on prices. Thirty-three winners and eight losers for the year Winners outnumbered losers by better than four-to-one in the commodities asset class that includes 41 different markets. Metals, foods, and energy commodities posted the most significant gains. Thirty-two of thirty-three markets that moved higher posted double-digit percentage gains, and thirteen markets were up over 50%. Of the eight markets that moved lower in 2021, five were precious metals. The sector may have lost 11.91% in 2021, but it moved 27.85% higher in 2020. Gold reached a new all-time high in 2020 and palladium in 2021, before the shiny metals corrected. Iron ore, the worst-performing commodity in 2021, was nearly 73% higher in 2020. Soybean meal rose by over 43% in 2020. Cocoa posted a marginal gain in 2020 and a market loss in 2021. Three reasons the bullish relay race will continue The ascent of commodity prices since the 2020 lows has been nothing short of a bullish relay race, with one market handing the bullish baton to the next. Three factors favor a continuation of bullish price action in 2022: Inflation : The Fed may be talking a hawkish game in early 2022, but action speaks a lot louder than words. At the December FOMC meeting, the committee forecast a 0.60% Fed Funds rate in 2022 and a 1.90% short-term rate in 2023. Even if inflationary pressures recede, real interest rates will remain in negative territory, which is fuel for higher inflation. As fiat currencies’ purchasing power declines, commodity prices are likely to continue to make higher lows and higher highs. The supply chain : Geopolitical issues and the pandemic’s legacy continue to create bottlenecks preventing commodities from moving from producers to consumers. Moreover, tensions between the US and Russia and the US and China develop roadblocks for commodities and distort prices, creating gluts in some regions and shortages in other areas. Policy : The shift in US energy policy to address climate change changed the fundamental equation for fossil fuels. OPEC and Russia now control world petroleum pricing. Increased regulations on US drilling and fracking will weigh on supplies. Moreover, addressing climate change dramatically increases the demand for battery metals and other commodities that are critical inputs for greener energy via alternative and renewable sources. Energy is an essential input for all commodity production. As energy prices rise, it puts upside pressure on all commodities, including grains, animal proteins, and metals. Inflation is a vicious cycle that is challenging to address once it gains speed. The US Fed and other world central banks are far behind the inflationary curve in early 2022. Bull markets rarely move in straight lines Bull markets can experience brutal corrections. In 2021, we saw copper drop from a new record high at nearly $4.90 per pound in May to below $4 in August. Lumber dropped from over $1700 per 1,000 board feet in May, a record high, to under $500 in August. Crude oil fell from its highest price since 2014 at $85.41 in October to below $63 in early December. Natural gas tanked from $6.466 per MMBtu in early October to below $4 in December and January. Many other commodities suffered equally ugly corrections. However, most found bottoms and have rallied from the higher lows than in 2020. I expect a continuation of higher lows and higher highs in the commodities asset class in 2022. The trend is always your best friend, and it remains higher in the raw materials asset class since 2020. 2021 was a bullish year in commodities, and I expect that trend to continue in 2022, but the road to higher prices is likely to be very bumpy. -- Trading advice given in this communication, if any, is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that we believe are reliable. The author does not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects the author’s good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice the author provides will result in profitable trades. There is risk of loss in all futures and options trading. Any investment involves substantial risks, including, but not limited to, pricing volatility, inadequate liquidity, and the potential complete loss of principal. This article does not in any way constitute an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any investment, security, or commodity discussed herein, or any security in any jurisdiction in which such an offer would be unlawful under the securities laws of such jurisdiction.
SP:SPXEducation
by Andy_Hecht
1
GoldViewFX - STEP2 - HOW TO TRADE BLUE PRINT ZOOMED INThis is a follow up post from the previous post (SEE RELATED IDEAS POST BELOW) on zooming out to identify historical ranges and moving across the levels to the current range. This post now zooms into the current range, with the historical range highlighted. We then draw our Goldturn support and resistance levels and are now able to use EMA5 indicator to trade these levels. We also add other analysis and indicators alongside this to further strengthen our move. Hope this was useful, please don't forget to like, comment and follow to support us. GoldViewFX XAUUSD TOP AUTHOR
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by Goldviewfx
TRADING PSYCHOLOGY | Common Traps You Must Know 🧠💭💫 Hey traders, Trading psychology plays a very important role in a learning curve of a trader. In this post, we will discuss common biases and traps that every struggling trader is occasionally facing. ⚓️Anchoring Bias People rely too much on a reference point from the past when making a decision for the future - they are "anchored" to the past. Imagine you spotted a great trading opportunity & made a nice profit. Encountering a similar setup in the future you trade it again. It turns out that you lose. Next time - same thing. The setup that initially brought you nice cash refuses to work. Even though the probabilities indicate that the identified pattern produces negative long-term returns, you keep taking that because you are "anchored" to the initial winner. 🙅‍♂️Loss Aversion This is when people go to great lengths to avoid losses because the pain of loss is twice as the pleasure received from a win. You see a great trading setup. You are 100% sure that it will play out. You open a trade and guess what? The market goes in the opposite direction. You can't believe that you are wrong. Instead, you decide to hold your position just a bit more adjusting your stop loss. And again, the market refuses to go in the direction that you projected. It is a vicious cycle that most of the time leads to substantial losses. ✅Confirmation Bias The confirmation trap is when traders seek out the information that validates their opinions and ignores any theory that invalidates them. You spotted a great long opportunity on GBPUSD. Checking the ideas of other traders on TradingView you consider only the ones that confirm your predictions completely ignoring the opposite ones. 👑Superiority Trap Many traders have lost large sums of money in the past simply because they have fallen prey to the mentality of overconfidence. Imagine that you caught a winning streak. You feel like the king of the world. You spend less and less time and reflection on each consequent trading decision that you make, you lose your focus. At some moment the reality kicks in and your gains evaporate. 🐮Herding As a trader, you should execute your own analysis & avoid the temptation to blindly follow the majority. Analyzing a EURUSD chart you make a conclusion that the market is bearish. However, then you see that 90% of the traders are very bullish on TradingView. Instead of following your own analysis, you decide to join the herd. These biases are common and most of the time we fall prey to them unconsciously. The more you self-reflect, the more you analyze your thoughts and actions, it would be easier for you to avoid them. Have your ever fallen prey to these traps? ❤️Please, support this idea with like and comment!❤️
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by VasilyTrader
25
Your Success Formula | What Drives a Big Change 🏔️ Hey traders, There’s a well-known Chinese proverb that says, “A journey of a thousand miles begins with a single step.” The one thing that prevents you from attaining your goal is hidden in your psyche, deep inside your soul. People usually look for shortcuts and want to accomplish their goals in one night. But the thing about long-term goals is that they can not be accomplished in a single day! It’s not like they require one huge, monumental effort to be achieved. The only way you’re going to accomplish something really big and ambitious – the kind of goal that will transform your life forever – is by consistently taking one small step at a time in the direction of your dreams. The importance of small incremental steps should be recognized by everyone, life is full of challenges, ups, and downs, but one should not lose hope or give up during the process. Failure should be considered as a learning point, an opportunity for growth. Be ready for a journey of thousand miles this year. Be ready to meet the chaos and unknown. That is the only way to evolve and be better. Remember that nothing is impossible to achieve unless you decide to do it at all costs. Do you agree with this quote? ❤️Please, support this idea with like and comment!❤️
COINBASE:BTCUSDEducation
by VasilyTrader
21
Your only as good as the assets you tradeThis is just a short blog post of a much longer idea! In a recent post we spoke about focusing only on assets that are in play for the day, even tough with day trading you can still make solid profits, especially on the tick charts, trading ranges, a trend will generate you much bigger and more importantly, easier profits. This is why it is vital to focus on assets which could generate momentum, because at the end of the day in day trading you are only as good as the assets you trade. Below you will find a chart of NASDAQ (left) and a chart of XAUUSD (right), one has moved significantly upwards while one was stuck in a whipsaw range which ended up breaking to the down side towards the end of the day on December 31st. Choosing to trade XAUUSD would be much easier to make a profit.
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by PrimedGroup
3
SUPERTREND AND EMA x2 Strategy for XAUUSD SWING TRADINGTools(Indicators) used: Supertrend Indicator from KivancOzbilgic no changes. EMA used twice. Set Length on first EMA at 20 change color to Blue (any you want but I will explain using the settings used). Set Length on second EMA at 50 change color to Yellow CHART 5 MINS and UP but under 1H. Preferred instrument is FXOPEN:XAUUSD Strategy:- We enter a trade upon confirmation of the following conditions. 1. When the supertrend suggests a buy. We confirm entry only when the blue line crosses the yellow from below. If both the conditions are true we place a buy order taking the previous lowest point as stop loss and profit at 1:1 2. When the Supertrend suggests a sell. We confirm entry only when the blue line crosses the yellow line from above. If both the conditions are true we place a sell order taking the previous highest point as stop loss and profit at 1:1. This is the strategy that I am using and I have been able to close 90% trades in profit. The strategy holds good almost every currency pairs and major cryptos. But I have not tried it on stocks. So reviews and suggestions are welcome to improve the strategy Please Like and Comment.... Disclaimer: The views expressed are for educational purpose only and do not constitute to trading advice. Please do your own research before acting on the views expressed herein.
FXOPEN:XAUUSDEducation
by GoldSiren
7
Using Stochastic RSI to trade Gold on shorter time framesFor the past 2 months I tested a scalping strategy using the Stoch RSI oscilator for OANDA:XAUUSD . Basically, it consisted in entering a position, short or long, whenever the Stoch RSI crossed the signal above (shorting) or bellow (long) the overbought /oversold zones with very tight SL, waiting until the Stoch RSI gave me a clear trend change signal. I tried several time frames for Gold and found that 15m and 30m worked the best. Bear in mind I tried this for stocks, Bitcoin and it didn't fit at all. Only with gold. And only with the stoch RSI, the RSI was almost useless. At first this strategy was providing me good results. I had a hit rate of up to 85% on shorts and and 50% on longs. I tried several explanations for this and best one I found is a combination of the following two: 1) gold was in a macro slight downtrend and even in very short time frames, the probability of being right shorting was higher. 2) gold (and everything?) tends to come down more decisively than up so the oscillators pick a more clear trend shift. 3) my psychology was stronger shorting, somehow I seem to be more "afraid" when longing, perhaps because of point number 2). I eventually 1) gave up longing gold 2) used less leverage to have less tight SL and the strategy seemed too good to be true. No one was mentioning this on ideas or chats and sometimes I felt like I had found some sort of cheat code. Fellow traders would write "it's going up" or "it's going down" and they were almost always wrong if the Stoch RSI didn't match. However, suddenly i stopped having clear signals, the market completely changed. Stubbornly and because I wanted to test it, I stuck to it, but it never worked again (so far). My conclusion is that for it to work, the price action needs to be in "oscillator" mode with gold trading sideways on 15/30 minute time frame with a range of more than 3-4$ between tops and bottoms. It's also wiser to follow the main trend and opting out on entering short or long positions against a main trend. Also, it is very important to check TVC:DXY and TVC:US10Y in real time. (right now those two indicators are much more relevant to me than stoch RSI). I know for many more experienced traders the above idea might seem very obvious or naive, but I'm learning every day and I though I'd share my experience. Feel free to comment and happy trading to all.
TVC:GOLDEducation
by Aguia7777
1
What you trade is just as important as how you trade!Hey Traders! WOW! What a Monday! Excellent moves in the markets today at the US open, I don't want to sound like I am bragging, but we kinda prepared ourselves very well for today by working our asses off on creating our watchlist, we knew what could be moving and we made sure that they focused on the best setups, setups that had the highest rewards and the lowest risks! Aside from a big miss on WTI, we aced EURUSD, NASDAQ, DAX and EURJPY. Preparation of a watchlist is vital for us day traders and we make sure to invest time into creating our day trading watchlists! This video explains a little better what we did to make today a BIG SUCCESS for ourselves and our members!
OANDA:WTICOUSDEducation
by PrimedGroup
2
Breakout Trading | 7 Steps to Follow 📝 Hey traders, Breakout trading is one of the most popular trading strategies. Being quite simple in theory, it remains quite complex and complicated in practice. In this post, we will discuss 7 steps every breakout trader must follow. 💬And just in brief about a breakout trading itself: this method aims to spot a key level (it might be horizontal support/resistance or a trend line) and then to trade its occasional breakout assuming that it will trigger an impulsive move. 1️⃣No surprise, the first task of a breakout trader is the identification of key levels. Preferably these levels should be spotted on weekly/daily time frames. 2️⃣Once key levels are spotted, a breakout trader should patiently wait for the test of one of those. His goal is to wait for a breakout. In that step, many traders fail. The problem is that in order to confirm the breakout, one should have strict & reliable rules to follow. The rules that describe a confirmed breakout. *I apply the following rule: the breakout of a level will be considered to be confirmed once the candle closes above/below the structure on the highest time frame where the structure is recognizable. 3️⃣Once the breakout is confirmed, the next step is to wait for a retest of a broken level. Why retest? Simply because a retest gives a better risk to reward ratio for the trade. And even though there is no guarantee that the price will retest the broken level and because of that some trading opportunities will be missed, in the long run, retest trading produces higher gains. 4️⃣Opening a trade on a retest one should know the exact target levels. The levels where the profits will be taken. Again, newbies traders make a lot of mistakes on that step. Remember that your targets must be realistic, they must be based on closest strong structure levels, not on your desired returns. 5️⃣Also, a breakout trader should set a stop loss. And again, a stop-loss level must be safe, it must be set at least below/above a previous minor structure to protect you from stop-hunting. Stop-loss reflects the point where the trader becomes wrong in his predictions and where the trading setup becomes invalid. 6️⃣Once the trading position is opened and stop-loss & take-profit are set, one should patiently wait. There is no guarantee that the price will start falling/growing sharply after the breakout. The market may start coiling for a quite long period of time before it starts acting. Breakout trader must be patient not allowing his emotions to intervene. 7️⃣Lastly, one should remember that his exit points are stop-loss/take-profit levels. Stop-loss adjustment in case of a position drawdown, preliminary profit-taking, and target extension are your worst enemies. Be disciplined, don't be greedy, and keep your emotions in check. Of course, this 7-steps trading plan is not sufficient enough for profitable breakout trading. There are so many nuances on each step of the plan to consider. However, let this plan be your initial guideline: learn & follow that and with time, keep elaborating its rules until you become a consistently profitable trader. Are you a breakout trader? ❤️Please, support this idea with like and comment!❤️
COINBASE:BTCUSDEducation
by VasilyTrader
19
These few chart patterns will improve your trading!Hello everyone, Let's look at few of my favorite chart patterns that I use from day to day in my trading and analyses. These patterns appears in almost every asset, instrument and currency pairs in the financial market and stock market. Forex chart patterns are on-chart price action patterns that have a higher than average probability of follow-through in a particular direction. They have offer significant clues to price action traders that use technical chart analysis in their forex trading decision process. Each chart pattern has the potential to push the price toward a new move. Forex traders tend to identify chart patterns in order to take advantage of upcoming price swings. Forex trading patterns are divided in groups based on the potential price direction of the pattern. There are three main types of chart patterns classified in Forex technical charting: 🔹 Continuation Chart Patterns 🔹 Reversal Chart Patterns 🔹 Neutral Chart Patterns 1. Bullish Flag In the context of technical analysis, a flag is a price pattern that, in a shorter time frame, moves counter to the prevailing price trend observed in a longer time frame on a price chart. It is named because of the way it reminds the viewer of a flag on a flagpole. The flag pattern is used to identify the possible continuation of a previous trend from a point at which price has drifted against that same trend. Should the trend resume, the price increase could be rapid, making the timing of a trade advantageous by noticing the flag pattern. In this scenario a bullish flag can be a sign that the previous bullish move that occurred prior to this pattern is likely to continue in the same direction. Opposite can be said with the bearish flag. 2. Double bottom The double bottom is a reversal pattern that occurs after an extended move down. The pattern signals that the market is unable to break through a key support level, and thus is likely to move higher. This pattern consist of 🔹First bottom 🔹Second bottom 🔹Neckline Neckline represents a resistance level that forms after the first bottom. A daily close above the neckline confirms the double bottom pattern. A total break through the neckline may confirm a violation of this pattern, long positions can opened once price has closed above the neckline at times a successful retest of price to the neckline can confirm a strong reversal. The opposite of this pattern is the Double Top which is a sign of reversal in bullish market, signaling a strong move to the downside. 3. Triple Bottom A triple bottom is a visual pattern that shows the buyers (bulls) taking control of the price action from the sellers (bears) and that price is about to change direction to the upside. A triple bottom is generally seen as three roughly equal lows bouncing off support followed by the price action breaching resistance. The formation of triple bottom is seen as an opportunity to enter a bullish position. The triple bottom consist of: 🔹First bottom 🔹Second bottom 🔹Third bottom 🔹Neckline The opposite of the triple bottom is a triple top which can signal a move to the downside. 4. Head and Shoulders A head and shoulders pattern is a chart formation that appears as a baseline with three peaks: The outside two are close in height and the middle is highest. In technical analysis, a head and shoulders pattern describes a specific chart formation that predicts a bullish-to-bearish trend reversal, while an inverse head and shoulders indicates the reverse. The head and shoulders pattern is believed to be one of the most reliable trend reversal patterns, but does have its limitations. 5. Rectangle A rectangle occurs when the price is moving between horizontal support and resistance levels. The pattern indicates there is no trend, as the price moves up and down between support and resistance. The rectangle ends when there is a breakout, and the price moves out of the rectangle. Some traders like to trade the rectangles, buying near the bottom and selling or shorting near the top, while others prefer to wait for breakouts. 6. Symmetrical Triangle The symmetrical triangle pattern is a continuation chart pattern like Ascending and Descending Triangle patterns. This pattern is characterized by two converging trend lines that connect a series of troughs and peaks. The trend lines should be converging to make an equal slope. This pattern indicates a phase of consolidation before the prices breakout. 7. Ascending Triangle The ascending triangle is a bullish formation that usually forms during an uptrend as a continuation pattern. There are instances when ascending triangles form as reversal patterns at the end of a downtrend, but they are typically continuation patterns. Regardless of where they form, ascending triangles are bullish patterns that indicate accumulation. Because of its shape, the pattern can also be referred to as a right-angle triangle. Two or more equal highs form a horizontal line at the top. Two or more rising troughs form an ascending trend line that converges on the horizontal line as it rises. If both lines were extended right, the ascending trend line could act as the hypotenuse of a right triangle. If a perpendicular line were drawn extending down from the left end of the horizontal line, a right triangle would form. 8. Cup and Handle The Cup and Handle is a bullish continuation pattern that marks a consolidation period followed by a breakout. There are two parts to the pattern: the cup and the handle. The cup forms after an advance and looks like a bowl or rounding bottom. As the cup is completed, a trading range develops on the right-hand side and the handle is formed. A subsequent breakout from the handle's trading range signals a continuation of the prior advance. The opposite of this is the Inverse Cup and Handle that appears in the bearish market and that act as a continuation pattern and sponsor move to the downside after the breakout. Friends if you enjoy this educational contents please do not forget to show your support with likes. Do follow me for more future contents like this.
FX:NAS100Education
by Forexintelligence_NA
Learn Top-Down Analysis | The Best Trading Strategy 🏆 Hey traders, 🔝Top-Down analysis is one of the most efficient ways to analyze & trade different financial markets. In this post, we will discuss the time frames to watch and the main steps to go through to execute a Top-Down trading strategy properly. Being a Top-Down trader your task is to assess the global market perspective and identify the zones, the areas from where it will be relatively safe for you to trade it following the trend or catching the reversals. ➖Weekly time frame shows you the price action during the last couple of years. It unveils the major zones of supply and demand and indicates the long-term direction of the market. Your task is to spot these zones and underline them. The strongest market moves most of the time initiate from these zones. At the same time, you must remember that on a weekly time frame the market is extremely slow. Being beyond the key zones 90% of the time, it takes many weeks, even months for the market to reach them. ➖Once you completed a weekly time frame analysis, the next on your radar is a daily time frame. Daily time frame shows you 1-year-long price action. It indicates a mid-term sentiment. And again, here your task is to simply identify the market trend and underline major key levels. *It is highly recommendable to apply different colors for highlighting weekly/daily levels. Completing weekly/daily time frame analysis, your task is to set the alerts on at least two closest support/resistance clusters. You must patiently wait for the moment when the price reaches one of them. Once the underlined key level is reached, you start the analysis of intraday time frames. ➖The intraday time frames on focus are 4H/1H. Your task here is to spot the price action/candlestick patterns. With such formations, the market unveils its reaction to the key level that it is approaching. You are looking for a pattern that confirms the strength of the level. Spotting the pattern you are looking for a trigger to open a trading position. Most of the time it is a breakout of a trend line or a horizontal neckline. The breakout confirms the willingness of buyers/sellers to buy/sell from the underlined support/resistance. Only then a trading position is opened. Of course, in practice, Top-Down analysis is very complex and many things and concepts must be learned in order to apply that strategy properly. Follow the steps described in this post, learn to identify key levels and recognize the price action patterns and you will see how efficient this strategy is. Do you apply a Top-Down trading strategy? ❤️Please, support this idea with like and comment!❤️
Education
by VasilyTrader
32
What Type of Trader Are You? 🤔 Hey traders, In this post, I decided to make a comparative analysis of three main trading styles: scalping, day trading, and swing trading. We will go throw the main pros and cons of each approach and discuss common misconceptions. 🏃‍♀️🏃 Let's start with scalping. I guess many of us were impressed by videos on youtube showing how a guy makes thousands of dollars applying a simple scalping strategy. Some of these videos get millions of views and excitement from the audience. No surprise the majority of newbies start their trading journey with scalping strategies. Practicing some of them and trading on a real account, these traders suddenly realize that the youtube videos barely reflect the reality of scalping. Scalping requires being extremely reactive, making trading decisions quickly, and constantly staying focused. Moreover, it turns out that this trading style is extremely risky, and occasional losing streaks become an essential part of the process. A pro scalper usually opens dozens of trading positions per day and manages many of them simultaneously. Even though it is a fact that a solid scalping strategy is a true cash machine, the constant pressure and high level of stress make many traders leave that game blowing their trading account. A true scalper is a guy with iron nerves and a sharp mind. It takes many many years to become a person like that. 🚶‍♀️🚶Intraday trading is a bit simpler. While quite often scalping gives a trader just a couple of minutes to react and make a trading decision, intraday trading gives the hours. Such a trading style is slower, the intraday perspective is not that chaotic and irrational. It takes many hours for the trading setup to play out making the trade management process not that time-consuming. Moreover, intraday trader tends to open much fewer trading positions than a scalper. Analyzing primarily 4h/1h time frames less trading setups meet the entry conditions. That primarily affects the potential gains though. Lesser you trade, the less money you make. I consider myself to be an intraday trader. Trading full-time of course I was trying different scalping strategies, but I must admit that I can’t make the decisions that quickly, I can’t constantly hold so many active trading positions in my mind, I need some time to think, I need some time to do other things, I want more freedom. For that reason, intraday trading is my choice. And let me be frank right here: I am not trying to say that intraday trading is simple, it is SIMPLER than scalping still remaining extremely complicated to master. 🕴🕴 If you want trading to become your side income if you have a full-time job and just a couple of hours per day for charting, I believe that intraday trading/scalping are not appropriate for you. In your situation, I would consider swing trading. Swing trading is extremely slow. Being primarily focused on weekly/daily time frames a swing trader tends to hold trading positions for weeks, sometimes even months. Moreover, it takes many days for a swing trading setup to form and the market gives a trader much time for reflection. Of course, that primarily affects the potential gains: I believe that among the 3 trading styles that we discussed, swing trading generates the lowest returns. Swing trader is the best starter for newbie traders. Analyzing higher time frames they can constantly follow the market and don’t miss the major moves. Just 1-2 hours per day are enough to follow dozens of financial instruments. Only by becoming a consistently profitable swing trader, one can try himself in intraday trading. Working with hundreds of struggling traders from different parts of the world I realized that the majority has the inverted perception of scalping/intraday/swing trading. I hope that this article will shed a light on that topic. What trading style do you prefer? ❤️Please, support this idea with like and comment!❤️
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by VasilyTrader
39