Still think USO is a great way to invest in Oil?An Interactive Broker trader with a $77,000 account thought he would outsmart every institution and every big Oil trader, the result? A $9 million loss.
Well done.
IB normally doesn't take beginners, you need 2 years experience to trade FX with them (haven't checked futures so I don't know what the rule is for those), and the min account size is 10,000.
This day trader (go figure) thought he was smarter than every one, and he went all in, he bet the farm. This alone is stupid, but he went all in without doing his research!
Probably a "technical analyst". Weird, I thought magical esoteric TA told you everything you need to know, that everything was built in the chart and info not in the chart was useless noise. Didn't his magical TA tools tell him it would go negative? Well actually if he looked at the ATR / implied volatility he would have seen....
Even I, that has negative balance protection and guaranteed stops, went on the CME site to check announcements.
They don't exactly talk about negative prices nor clearly about limit up limit down, but here, with Oil massive volatility, they did confirm that yes indeed they were prepared for negative prices.
Thomas Peterffy (the hungarian market billionaire that is not George Soros) said 5 days wasn't enough for IB to update their platform and that's obviously true.
Now maybe they should have warned people with messages on the interface, e-mails, maybe set some hard limit to what their clients can do.
Maybe they should have had code ready at all time in case this happens. Maybe they share the fault, maybe not.
But anyway, being a customer friendly broker, they absorbed losses over 100 million.
Meanwhile I did my research, I shorted June contract and made money, and I'm fighting with my shady broker to withdraw some of my gains...
They have been condemned by the french regulators years ago for shady business practices go figure, but every retail broker has!
And the vast majority of their clients are retail. I'm waiting and waiting and waiting... I have resisted insulting them or calling the regulator for now.
The only other broker to give me a hard time was Kraken. They mention anti laundering laws and more, and I understand, but why be so unclear, and ask for documents 5 times rather than all at once, and why ask for the same documents several time, and why be so difficult, only when someone made money?
Short Bitcoin on Kraken which was clearly very pro bull, short Oil on *** which had a massive number of retail short sellers (they were on the June contract thought), and then it's an issue. Never had a single problem buying Bitcoin and sending it to a wallet, never a problem when losing money, extreme ease to deposit and start paying commissions, without any warning "getting it out will be very hard". "It's quick instant easy" ye sure, no it's not.
The fund running USO clearly said it was a tool for short term bets. It's not made for massive hoardes of dumb money to buy and hold.
They have spread over several months to be more nimble, ye looks like its working great!
I heard reverse splits were a good sign, that it was smart to invest in a stock after it made a reverse split.
Once again, retail that never in their lives made money consistently, thought they knew better than every one else, and that they would get rich quick.
Once again, I warned people with what little visibility I had.
Once again I was right and retail is getting wiped out.
Bagholders are going to argue, they are going to say "just wait", and any spike up will be their celebration and "told you so" "this is it".
Same old story. They'll keep arguing, they'll keep bagholding, they'll keep losing.
Dumb money at its finest: never understand when you lost. You can never tell them "told you so" because in their mind it's always just a matter of time.
When it gets delisted they'll have no choice but to understand they lost, and still then they'll go full lawsuit and dream of getting their money back.
How long for this? 5 years? 10 years? Apple Sapphire screen bagholders as I posted recently have gotten like 4% of their money back on average.
An average smart (average of the ones in the top) investor or speculator in 10 years will be up 15% compounded, so +300% (turn the total into 400%), and dumb bagholders that wanted to get rich quick "15% a year looool that's pathetic" will be spending their time in courts and dreaming of getting 4% back (turn the total into 4%).
Delusion at its finest. There is no free lunch...
If Oil was priced at $0.01 there was a very good reason for it.
Oil traders weren't just selling at this price because "emotions" "rsi very oversold".
It's so risible that some complete noobs that don't understand anything they are doing thought they are just so much smarter than the market, and that whales were just "being emotional" and selling a barrel of Oil at $5, $3, etc just because they were "scaaaaared".
Homer Simpson really thought "Aha! Whales are selling Oil at $1 a barrel but they are scared. I, Homer J Simpson, know something they don't! Oil is worth more. I am a visionary!"
It's like when Homer went hunting for a Turkey, he just put a nice plate down with rice and other food in, then shouted "Come on Turkey come join your friends" and pointed the gun towards the plate with a big smile on his face, fully convinced a Turkey would jump in his plate.
I thought the Simpsons were ridiculous and overly exagerated when I was a kid. How wrong I was.
My broker lets me set an order to short USO. Oh my, I sure know what I'm going to do! 2 possibilities actually.
The Difference Between Stupidity and Genius Is That Genius Has Its Limits.
Commodities
XAUUSD - M Dears,
I know most of the traders think about this chart it is a new chart, but as you can see with the attached chart you can see the old one it was 21 July 2019.
and we have mentioned the gold from that date it is bullish, and it will not be bearish till touching the resistant, and that time we want to get the confirmation of the bearish with price action.
Note: we believe the coronaviruses will start to begin to weaken, and all the markets, economies, and life will working and life gradually returns to normal.
take care and be in save.
gold dxy5.12.20 This video is the sequel to the previous video. In addition, I showed two ways to frame range boxes on the gold contract. I decided to give a closer look at the bear trap on the DXY and as I did this, I realized I had to look at a couple of time frames in order to add clarity. This was a bear trap on smaller time frame, but it is a retest of a breakout higher. It is what it is on different time frames, but it has value to do this in my opinion. As I was listening to the video before uploading, I took note of how bullish the whole pattern looks on the DXY on the daily chart... to the point that it looks likely that the price will move higher to an ABCD pattern... even though I am not a breakout buyer, and the market is still in arrange box which is the dominant behavior. If you don't understand this, I will come back and review it once we get a chance to see how the dollar plays out. The reason I bring this up is because of my conviction that higher time frames result in much more accurate assessment of the bullish or bearish nature of price action.
XAUUSD ; still bullish in Triangle despite the downside pressure in today's daily session, Gold still keeps it's strong position in the Triangle pattern.
Pay attention to 60-Min chart; a triple bottom in the trend-line upwards can be observed.
A breakout above 1720 - 1725 should indicate a new bullish trend here and likewise, a breakdown below 1690 - 1685 is expected to indicate further consolidation.
Negative Divergence in #PHLX indicates a potential reversal- Either #gold or the #spy or both are subject to a bearish attack soon, as there is a weakening #PHLX
- there is a clear divergence in MACD
- current levels shall be watched very close ; once the prices return back from here, a sharp decline is possible to expect.
CRUDE OIL (WTI) STRUCTURE ANALYSIS
hey guys,
crude keeps growing steadily!
the price has easily gone through 18.5 - 20.5 resistance and now it turned to support.
our next key daily resistance is 28.6 - 30.6 zone.
look for a reversal formation within this area to short.
in case of a further bullish continuation, the second resistance will be 34.0 - 36.0 area.
if this zone will be reached, the previously mentioned resistance will turn to support as well.
the safest trading is always done on key levels.
so pay attention to the price action when any of the key zones are reached.
good luck!
If Bitcoin Really is The New GoldLet's say the equities market crashes along with commodities, then we would expect gold's price to increase, but maybe Bitcoin will become the new gold due to the nature of the pandemic that we are currently amidst. The key point is this: gold is neither easily transportable, transferrable, nor is it readily portable. It would be impractical to expect be able to readily access gold throughout the entire time it takes for our planet to either acquire herd immunity to SARS-CoV-19 or to produce a vaccine which would be used to prevent said virus. Bitcoin is advantageous in this aspect. A $120,000 per coin call sounds hopeful at one point or another, but such lofty thoughts like that don't seem too far out of reach, especially during times like these.
DXY - Gold negative correlationJohn Murphy in his classic on "Intermarket Analysis" writes on the dollar gold negative correlation.
Here we compared DXY - Gold correlation on daily chart in regard towards 200 day average.
If you will take closer look, you will see that in case of divergences forming, it is dollar index that usually fails.
If gold breaks resistance (being in sharp uptrend towards 2011 highs) and we do observe some sort of bullish cup and handle continuation pattern - dollar is likely to fall.
By DeMark criteria, bullish breakout on gold looks better than the one on dollar index.
On correlation cofficient, we are also observing ever decreasing divergence trend towards 200 day average.
At any case one of two should fail in uptrend:)
How To Use TradingView Hotkeys and ShortcutsOn TradingView, hotkeys and shortcuts will help you chart faster and navigate markets in lightening-speed. Draw a Trendline or a Fibonacci Retracement by pressing one or two keys on your keyboard. In this video, we want to show you every hotkey and shortcut available.
Press Alt / ⌥ + T to quickly draw a Trendline.
Or press Alt / ⌥ + F to quickly draw a Fibonacci Retracement.
These are just some of the ways you can use hotkeys and shortcuts across the TradingView platform. They work for your charts, indicators, drawings, scripts, and more.
We hope you enjoy this video guide. We also are curious to hear what you think of the trendline we draw on the chart shown of gold using the Trendline hotkey. Please let us know your favorite hotkeys and shortcuts or request new additions in the comments below.
Thanks for watching,
TradingView