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Commodities

Inflation Proxy StablizingDoubleLine's Jeff Gundlach often refers to the copper/gold ratio as a proxy for U.S. yields. Although this is comprised of two commodities that tend to do well in rising inflation, it can be seen as a growth proxy as well, which in turn filters into where yields are moving. Market participants often allocate to copper when growth is trending higher and, conversely, gold when growth is muted. We currently have a record net-short positioning on copper which could suggest yields may move higher.
TVC:US10YEducation
by TheMacroStrategist
Trading Overbought/Oversold readings on RSIRSI is one of the most widely followed technical indicators out there. The focus of this writeup is on understanding the overbought and oversold readings. I am not delving into the details of calculation and divergences. So what does overbought reading mean? An above-70 reading on the 14-day RSI is widely considered an overbought reading. Many people consider overbought reading as a sign of bearish reversal. That is a so wrong… An above-70 RSI only means the underlying asset’s price has rallied too fast… too soon and the momentum may slow or stall for some time. Also, the price needs to validate the overbought readings, i.e. the above-70 reading on the RSI becomes valid only if signs of buyer exhaustion appear in the form fo candlestick patterns like a hanging man, bearish hammer, bearish engulfing or outside day or simply a candle with a long upper shadow. Also, failure on the part of the bulls to push through a certain level would validate overbought reading on the RSI. A trader should take overbought reading on the RSI seriously if the market is at record highs or at multi-year highs. That said, traders should ignore overbought readings on the RSI as long as the price is showing no signs of buyer exhaustion. In fact, if prices are rising on the back of strong volumes, then I consider an overbought RSI as further evidence of trend strength. Example of reading the overbought reading on RSI Lets say a stock has rallied 10-15% in just few days and now the RSI is holding above 70. First I would check if the price is showing signs of bullish exhaustion. Lets say, there is a doji candle – a sign of buyer exhaustion (indecision after a solid rally). So what we have now is buyer exhaustion on price + an overbought reading on the RSI. In this case, I would exit my longs and check for the following day’s close. It its above the doji candle’s high and on the back of strong volumes, I would ignore RSI and go long. If the close is below doji candle’s low, the RSI gains credence and I go short with stops above the doji candle’s high or as per my risk appetite. On similar lines, oversold readings on the RSI gain credence only when the price is flashing signs of seller exhaustion in the form of doji, long-legged candle or doji candle, bullish engulfing, inverted green hammer, bullish outside reversal or repeated defense of a specific level. I hope this write up was helpful. Let me know if you want me to make a video or write up in more detail on RSI or other indicators or macros.
TVC:GOLDEducation
by OmiFX8
A Renko Strategy for Trading - Part 7 Refactor/RefinementThis is intended more as educational material on a strategy for using renko charts. To begin with, I'll be using USOil in the examples but will include other markets as I continue through the series. The material is not intended to prescribe or recommend actual trades as the decision to place trades is the responsibility of each individual who trades as they assume all risks for their own positions and accounts. (Part 1) Double Exponential Moving Average (DEMA) 12 black line Double Exponential Moving Average (DEMA) 20 red line Parabolic SAR (PSAR) 0.09/0.09/.23 blue circles Simple Moving Average (SA) 20 blue line (Part 2) Stochastics 5, 3, 3 with boundaries 80/20 dark blue/light blue Stochastics 50, 3, 3 with boundaries 55/45 red Overlay these two on one indicator. Refer to 'Part 2' as to how to do this (Part 3) True Strength Indicator (TSI) 14/4/4 dark blue/ red Directional Movement Indicator DMI 14/14 ADX-dark green, +DI-dark blue, -DI-red
FX:USOILEducation
by mxb1961
BRACE FOR IMPACT - BIG FLIGHTS TO SAFETYOf course I've been shouting about Gold and Cryptos before. Why? Why?... some people wanna know what's going on. (TURN UP volume on speakers. Microsoft updates caused a problem) I posted on the big de-dollarisation war that was happening in the background months ago. I was also looking at the 'war index' in Lockheed Martin. The smart money has already moved these markets. If you've missed, you're too late. It is a very unstable and uncertain world now. We have wars of various kinds: 1. Trade wars 2. Currency wars. 3. Cyber-wars. 4. And as of Thursday/Friday, America almost went to war with Iran. The dumb money is now long on the DJI. Yeah it might break out of 27000 but that's what the dumb money is gonna do. Last week we saw the German Bund market head into negative yield. This means that investors are willing to put their money in for an initial loss on bonds. Yield curves remain inverted in America. There is trouble ahead. Watch where the real big boys are heading. Get smart. Disclaimer: Nothing here is financial (or other advice). DYOR. This screencast is speculative. No liabilities accepted for your losses. In other words sue yourself if you take a position based on this post and lose your money.
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by Captain_Walker
1
A Renko Strategy for Trading - Part 5This is intended more as educational material on a strategy for using renko charts. To begin with, I'll be using USOil in the examples but will include other markets as I continue through the series. The material is not intended to prescribe or recommend actual trades as the decision to place trades is the responsibility of each individual who trades as they assume all risks for their own positions and accounts. Chart setup: (Part 1) Double Exponential Moving Average (DEMA) 12 black line Double Exponential Moving Average (DEMA) 20 red line Parabolic SAR (PSAR) 0.09/0.09/.23 blue circles Simple Moving Average (SA) 20 blue line (Part 2) Stochastics 5, 3, 3 with boundaries 80/20 dark blue/light blue Stochastics 50, 3, 3 with boundaries 55/45 red Overlay these two on one indicator. Refer to 'Part 2' as to how to do this (Part 3) True Strength Indicator (TSI) 14/4/4 dark blue/ red Directional Movement Indicator DMI 14/14 ADX-dark green, +DI-dark blue, -DI-red
FX:USOILEducation
by mxb1961
Trendline , Range & Importance of candle close price.Hello Fellow Traders, Here we would like to talk about Trendlines and how they can be used along with Horizontal support to find great entry points , both for short term scalping and swing trades , We all know about trendlines yet traders don't use it to the full potential which this tool can provide , In this article we will be talking about Trendline above price which defines current range of price action , for our convenience we call them Price Range trendline: Price range trendline can be drawn above or below price and must be pointing UP in when price going up and pointing down when price is going down . But before starting we want you to understand Closing price of candle and its importance while trading with trendlines or Moving averages or with any indicator , In trendline trading 4HR and Daily closes are highly relevant whereas shorter time frame candle close price can just be cause of market noise and we don't give much importance to them. Candle closing price is used to understand if trendline is still valid or has been breached/ invalidated , very important in both trendlines & horizontal support n resistance. Now If you see the chart , you can see trendline supporting upside movement , then we have Range Trendline & Horizontal Support , Near Range Trendline price is mostly overstretched and looking for minor pullback/retracement , knowing price range where there is high probability we can use Limit orders to scalp pips out of pair each time price reaches our Range trendline and till 4hr candle doesn't close above Trendline , Success rate of Trading with Range Trendline is high because it doesnot act as resistance but probable price zone where bullish/bearish pressure has reached its peak and need some cool down , Check our trade idea based on same principal in shorter time frame which worked out perfectly well and let us know what do you think. For more info and knowledge about using trendlines.... we are here to help community trade better .. message us.
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by AariTech
1
Every one needs to know this perfectly: the 6 financial assets.Hello. I noticed alot of traders new of course but also veterans do not know their basics that well. I myself, needed to get everything a little more clear in my head, there are still a few grey area's, but after making (and after you read) this idea, it will all be much more clear. The TradingView community, in october 2017 consisted of over 3 million monthly active users, and on average 3300 new users joined daily (0.1% daily growth taking the active user number). In Q4 2017 - 2018 when crypto exploded a massive wave of people joined this site (I joined in december 2017 myself), I assume most were new. Crypto now is the biggest chat on this site so we can assume there were more than 3300 daily for crypto alone when BTC accelerated after breaking $1000 $3000 and $5000. Of course there are certainly alot that just invested in crypto and now lost their money with BTC down back to 3000 & alts down 99%. So, what I am trying to say is there are alot of new people, and in particular crypto exclusive people. I think there are literally millions of people on this site that could use this. The SEC & CFTC AND senators included by the way, I am not sure they have this clearly in their minds, you know what I mean if you have been following crypto regulations and hearings the past year... And if you are a crypto exclusive trader (I feel sorry for you when crypto consolidates half the time), this might shed some light and make the other assets less scary. Before I start digging in, if you were looking for opinions on the eurodollar sorry I do not have any. It is "kind of" going nowhere. ZigZagging randomly, maybe there is a way to trade this, I do not know it. I only join trends or go agaisnt trends if the conditions are right. (1) Looking at volumes & average volatility. Ordered from biggest to smallest. Cash ==> Daily traded volume around 5 trillion $. EURUSD a little over 1 Trillion. USDJPY is slighlty under 1 trillion, then GBPUSD at around 500 billion, then 5 between 100 and 300 billion (AUDUSD 250+, USDCAD 200+, USDCNH 200-, USDCHF 200-, EURGBP 100) , two dozen between 10 and 90 billion, and then "the rest". Honestly The big Forex pairs are not correlated (EURUSD & USDJPY). Pound and Euro move quite together. It is complicated.... DXY (usd index) looks alot like EURUSD as expected... The U.S. Dollar Index is calculated with this formula: USDX = 50.14348112 × EURUSD-0.576 × USDJPY0.136 × GBPUSD-0.119 × USDCAD0.091 × USDSEK0.042 × USDCHF0.036. Outdated if you ask me. I do not like it very much. I should make my own us dollar index. I think I will! Typically moves about 0.5 to 1 percent a day. Fixed income ==> Daily traded volume in excess of 700 billion usd (for the US alone I think). The biggest ones are US treasury bills 10 yr and 30 yr correct me if I am wrong, I think they do volumes of about 50 billion, really not sure. I tried looking at the german euro bund but I do not really know much about it. Better stick to US30YR and US10YR. Careful they are not as safe as they seem; wide moves happen. Prices are more expensive there are very few retail traders compared to other assets. Mostly institution traders buying/selling for millions at a time. US30Y typically moves 2 to 2.5% a day. US10Y is the same. Equities ==> Nyse + Nasdaq represent a little over 1/3 of the world stock capitalisation (maybe less and less now that the bubble popped) and traders are much more attracted to US stocks than the rest of the world. I know these 2 have a combined volume of 250 billion, going to assume the total worldwode is around 500 billion. Less than Bonds in any case. The indices might be big, all I know is the e-mini S&P 500 trading volume on the CME is 150 billion usd! In total capitalization the US bond market is bigger than the US stock market and I heard their volume was bigger too, but it does not feel "bigger". And treasury bills have less volume than the e-mini. The S&P 500 typically moves 0.75 to 2% a day, it varies wildly. Different stocks have different numbers. But usually 1 to 5%. Commodities ==> 1- Precious metals. Gold Silver Platinum Palladium. Gold the biggest one, and its trading volume is of 125 billion (estimated, daily). Gold typically moves 1.5% a day. Other ones move 2-3% a day. Aaaand I just noticed palladium went above ath and is in a massive bull run since summer 2018. Gold has been going up since then too. 2- Energy. Oil (Texas Crude Light & Brend), NatGas, Heating Oil. Oil futures have a volume of 35 billion with the CME. Oil typically moves 2-3% a day, NatGas 3 to 5%, but sometimes 20% in a day as you might have heard ;) 3- Agriculture. Soybeans (5B), Corn(2B), Wheat(1B), Cotton(900M), Coffee(600M), Sugar(500M), Cocoa(300M), the rest is irrelevant. Soybean futures typically move 2% a day, Corn 2-3%, Wheat around 3%, the rest all about 2-3%. 4- Industrial metals. Copper Iron Ore Aluminum. Copper futures have a daily volume of 5 billion. I know nothing about Iron, but it is defenitly correlated to copper. Copper typically move 2-3% a day. CryptoCurrencies ==> The NEW one! Wouhoo so exciting! Well no not really, just another headache for regulators that have been trying to decide does it fall in the commodity or security category? (How about none? How about you create a new commitee crypto specific, maybe they are waiting to see if crypto is still around in 5 years). Daily traded volume in 2018 was 30 billion us dollar. 10 billion for Bitcoin, 20 billion for altcoins. Clearly the smallest asset. Could grow bigger could disappear. Would be a shame; What do we need it for thought? Internet money and a way to do crowdfunding & buy shares of a company (tokens)? If it is not a super useful innovation, we do not need it. There have been alot of great innovations, but that were not very useful or did not really improve things that much so they just vanished. This asset is "pending", it could simply disappear. Well it is not that bad, still plenty other things to trade. Probably the best asset for stinky newbs (:p). Small accounts are possible, very small, fees are low on most exchanges if you want them to be, open 247, there are no gaps, no slippage (well if you use Bitmex). Bitcoin typically moves 5% a day, but it is like with stocks it varies greatly. Ethereum moves the double of Bitcoin, and altcoins vary. Some can move ALOT on average, they are just scams and going to die thought, so whatever. Most successful alts are the results of pump and dumps. I dare you to tell me no, I was in the discords right before it started... (did not participate I never was in the mod club or tried to be). Property ==> In the US the real estate transaction volume in a year is about 400 billion $ (much lower around 2009 :}). Is there a way to trade this? Via funds indexes or something? This is just for investing. (2) Correlations *** Forex EURUSD & DXY are the same chart... EURUSD & USDJPY not correlated. Maybe a tiny bit, but really not that much. EURUSD & GBPUSD very similar charts especially recent years. AUDUSD & EURUSD not exactly the same, but the trades will be the same. Trading both is redundant. EURUSD & USDCAD sometimes more bullish sometimes more bearish, but basically the same moves. USDCNH & EURUSD. Well in between, I don't know. USDCNH & USDJPY. It is looking pretty similar here. USDJPY & USDCHF. Kind of the "safe ones". They often move together, not always. EURUSD & EURGBP. A Euro strong against the USDOLLAR does not mean it will be strong agaisnt the pound. EURUSD & EURJPY. Not that much correlation in my eyes. USDMXN & EURUSD. At times it just mirrors it. Really no personality Pesos. Then most other pairs just follow the bigger one, like when the AUD falls against the dollar, all AUD pairs fall from experience it it what I noticed. I did not check all pairs like USD versus RUB? I do not know, but I do not want to check everything and get overwhelmed. These 4 are good: EURUSD USDJPY EURGBP EURJPY they represent most of the currency market action. The rest is all a mirror of one of these 4. I will have these 4 in my watchlist & then there are about 30 important pairs with a volume of 10 billion or more I can look at, maybe I notice something, but most focus will be on the 4. Maybe if I want to short EURUSD I might notice AUDOLLAR is heavier and short that instead... 4 is good, not so much I would get overwhelmed. *** Bonds 30 YR and 10 YR treasury bills move the same as far as I know. Then there are so many. Why bother? For my part I am not trading that (yet), but I will be putting US30Y in my main watchlist & keeping an eye on it and hopefully learning more about that financial product. *** Equities There are so many stocks. Hidden gems, whatever. Not worth my time. Not a big stock expert, Almost everything follows vaguely the big indices Tech stocks are all moving the exact same way (FAANG), stocks from the same area move the same (all video game companies had the same issues they are all down 40% more or less). I do not know the different industries well, I know it follows the general market direction, I do not really know when it does and when it does not, the difference in every industry. So unless I get to know more which will take a while, I only watch a major indice, the Dow because I want to, could be the S&P same story. I cannot tell you more on exactly what the correlations are and how "close" they are sorry. *** Commodities A/ Precious metals ==> Trading gold only is enough. Or just watching it. It leads everything. B/ Energy Might as well only watch Oil and see it all as one big thing, to keep it simple. C/ Agriculture Wheat and Corn, regular carb stapple foods and Soybeans, all the same (All CME). Cocoa does not seem correlated to anything? It has some delay on the rest? Might be interesting to look at weekly chart once in a while... Cotton Coffee Sugar (all traded on ICE) look similar... Just going to have Soybean futures in my main watchlist I cannot be bothered with the rest, trying to understand the risk, the is it correlated the what if? Can still look from time to time for opportunities... D/ Industry metals ==> Copper , the rest is just copy pasta *** CryptoCurrencies There are sooo many crypto's. It's all the same story thought. Fortunately, most of these scams will die. If 10 to 100 remain it would be good. All the scams and various ponzi's have created alot of confusion with people (such as the SEC). Trust me the reason the SEC have waited and waited and waited is because there are so many different crypto's doing different things they have no idea how to categorise them. They tried starting with the biggest ones first which is what they should do but they did not produce much really... I think they are just waiting for the bubble to finish popping and most crypto's to die. The SEC wants to prevent dumb money from getting scammed and they have been putting out a fake ICO site and heading warnings, they do not want to do nothing. ===> I only watch Bitcoin . The rest is irrelevant most of the time (for trading purposes). Might change in the future. Sure I could look at other crypto's "oh Ethereum is more bullish my edge is better here, oh Litecoin has started going up early before the rest" whatever, it's just adding chaos randomness. Can't be bothered. I tried, not worth my time. (3) Conclusion I hope you enjoyed this post. I enjoyed making it. My watchlists are as follow: A main one I use all the time and look at 4 hour chart with * EURUSD USDJPY EURGBP EURJPY which covers most of all Forex * GOLD OIL SOYBEANF COPPER which covers most of all commodities * BITCOIN * US30Y * DJI A watchlist for Currencies with 30 pairs I might rarely watch from time to time looking for potential swing trades. A watchlist for Commodities and Crypto with half a dozen commodities and half a dozen crypto, same logic as the currencies watchlist. Daily chart or bigger only. A watchlist for ~12 indices and 90 of the biggest stocks in the world (mcap over 50 billion usd). Only for backtesting (for now). A watchlist with 1200 stocks I never use but might look at sporadically, for education purposes. ===> In the end, I mostly trade Bitcoin + 4 FX pairs + 4 Commodities, and am researching more FX pairs & commodities, might have some opportunities. I can be more picky with my trades if I watch more, but at the same time it adds confusion and everything. Also learning about stocks and bonds little by little. Ignoring crypto other than Bitcoin and maybe ETH for the time being. In any case, for every of the 6 assets, you are good with 4 symbols each. More gets redundant and makes it complicated. Just go 4 each and separate them clearly, make it easier ;)
Education
by MrRenev
2
Master the Simple Inside Bar Pattern hey guys, on WTI we have a perfect example of Inside Bar candlestick pattern on a daily chart. An inside bar is a series of bars or sometimes just one bar that is contained within the range of the preceding bar (mother bar). The first rule that we should take into account is that inside bars must have a higher low and lower high than the mother bar. The second rule is that we trade this pattern only after bearish or bullish breakout of a mother bar trading range. The logic behind inside bar is simple. It indicates a time of indecision and market consolidation. Inside bars typically occur as a market consolidates after making a large directional move (bearish on WTI), you also can see this pattern at key decision points like major support or resistance levels. For WTI our plan is to wait until a violation of a trading range. Remember that the candle MUST close below or above the range before we take any action!
FX:USOILEducation
by VasilyTrader
7
US Oil: A big challengeUS Oil presents some serious challenges for those looking to short this market. This analysis is time frame dependent. Which way you might want to go depends entirely on trends in respective time frames. DAILY PICTURE 1. On the daily time frame this is very much a bull market. We can see that in the ATR (amber trendline) and the green Guppy investor zone. 2. On the daily price has made a temporary retreat to near ATR support, in a parabolic limb of the curve. 3. If anything this is usually a place to go long (on this time frame). 4H - FOUR HOURLY PICTURE 1. There is an early trend switch for the south. 2. This is seen on the ATR and SQM (Squeeze momentum). 3. But it isn't as yet a Grade A or Grade B switch. DECISION-MAKING (Speculative issues) 1. Finding appropriate entry point on a chosen time frame. 2. For a limited hit going long (north) on the 4H, taking a reasonable stop loss and taking only about a 26 or 38.2 Fib retracement of the most recent daily candle. 3. For a limited hit going short (south) on the 4H, a larger stop-loss is required. 4. Possibly going long on the daily and hold out. As usual before starting any trade on any time frame common things need to be decided: 1. Time frame one will stick to (1D, 4H or something else). 2. Entry position. 3. Stop-loss. 4. Exit position. Stop-losses on 4H and less need to cater for short spikes in price. So simply saying 2.5 times ATR may not be enough. Based on experience only of US Oil, I can expect a recoil up on the 4H but of course, I can't predict how much. As mentioned above I can expect at least a 26% Fib on the length of the last daily candle. Expectation is not prediction. Declaration : This post is for educational purposes only. Nothing here is intended as advice. Your losses are your own should you still construe this as advice, act on it, and lose money.
TVC:USOILEducation
by Captain_Walker
My TOP 10 Posts! Must Reads for Beginner Traders!I wrote more than 1200 posts in TradingView. The majority of them are trading ideas and market overviews. Even if they helped you to make tons of profit, I think their value is much lower than the few educational posts I published. I am a person who believes that knowledge and experience are the main elements of success. No matter in which field, if you know what to do and if you have experience - one day you will reach your goal. Trading signals are just one tool which can't make you a successful trader if you don't have knowledge and experience. I would like to collect all my best posts in this one, just in order to tell one more time to novice traders the which are the important things in trading. You can read my best posts, of course from my point of view. I did the best for adding value to this community. And I hope the real value, from my side, can be seen in these posts. This is Why Beginner Traders Lose Their Capital – 1. No Strategy This is Why Beginner Traders Lose Their Capital – 2. Risk/Reward This is Why Beginner Traders Lose Their Capital – 3.Trade Volume This is Why Beginner Traders Lose Their Capital – 4.Overactivity WHEN CAN YOU START TRADING FOR A LIVING? 90% of Traders Lose Their Money! Do You Really Want to Succeed? The Key Elements to Succeed in The Financial Markets Trading Signals Won’t Make You Rich! Trading Signals Won’t Make You Rich! Spoiled Community and How to Become Successful Good luck in your journey in the financial markets!
BITFINEX:BTCUSDEducation
by DLavrov
12