SECRET MARKET FORECASTING METHODHello.
The video I made about this topic was removed. So I recorded a short version of what I said since I hate to redo stuff.
Take it for what it's worth!
Cheers.
Commodities
GoldViewFX - HEAD AND SHOULDERS PATTERNREPOST ON CHART PATTERNS.
Hey Everyone,
In 2023 we plan to also make more time to post basic educational posts for our newbies learn and level up.
HEAD AND SHOULDERS PATTERN
The head and shoulders pattern is a formation of 3 peaks with the head being the highest peak (Lowest on inverse). The entry should be below the neckline (Above on inverse). The measure of take profit can be taken by measuring the peak of the head from neckline and using this range, as an indicator of the take profit level.
Please do give us a like, comment and follow to support us.
GoldViewFX
XAUUSD TOP AUTHOR
BASIC MONEY MANAGEMENT - LOT SIZE VS REVERSAL AND ACCOUNT SIZEHey Everyone,
We see too many new traders trade with random lot sizes with no understanding on the impact it has on account sizes, which result in not only losses but BLOWN accounts. This post is by no means a risk or money management strategy but more so just basics on the movement of reversals and how the lot sizes impact the value of your account during this reversal.
Trading with the right lot sizes allows a trader to manage their account/money when the trade goes against them. The right size allows a trader to move a range without blowing their account and without seeing their account reverse to the point of no equity. This type of trading gives traders anxiety and in return this anxiety impacts trading psychology . This then has a ripple effect and impacts your trading decisions and analysis.
The example we show on the chart is an entry of SELL that reverses by 380 PIPs. This movement happened in literally 2 candles (1hour candles) , so in two hours the price from entry reversed by 380 pips. This example then shows what this equates to in monetary value dependent on lot sizes.
The example shows that anyone with a £500 account trading this movement with a lot size of 0.20 would have blown their account.
Lot size usage should be based on the size of your account for example;
£500 size account - we will only use 0.01 size lot sizes with maximum deployed total no more than 0.02. This will allow an account to survive volatile movements.
£1000 size account - we will use 0.02 lot sizes with maximum deployed total no more then 0.05 any given time.
£2000 size account - we will use 0.03 lot sizes with maximum deployed total no more then 0.10 any given time.
£5000 size account - we will use 0.5 sizes with maximum deployed total no more then 0.20 any given time.
Basically staying below 0.05 for every £1000, as the total deployed usage allows us enough flexibility of movement on the chart for Gold and then using stop losses on top of this, gives us further control of our money management.
Many traders who cannot control their greed and do not bother understanding risk/money management will bung on a 0.50 lot size on a 2K GBP account, as an example, and then when it reverses, even if it's within the swing range, you know what will happen next. ACCOUNT BLOWN! MIND BLOWN!
You will have mastered the art of risk/money management when your entry reverses and you a) expected that reversal within the range before it resumes to hit the TP and b) you look at that red figure during reversal without it worrying you in the least.
We hope this quick basic insight helps some of our newbies better understand how to manage their risk with range.
Please like, comment and follow to support our work, we really appreciate it!
GoldViewFX
XAUUSD TOP AUTHOR
AUBONACCI GOLD TRADING SOFTWAREHello. In this video, I talk about what I use for Gold trading and also I talk about some of my discoveries including Market Mapping, Future Fibonacci and Gold Phases.
For this purpose, I have created software that calculates Pivot ( starting point ) because it is important to know where you start the counting from.
Hope this explains briefly what I am doing over here. Remember these are just tools and analysis, trading is the hard part that has to be mastered on its own and no software will help you there!
P.S don't ask for the software or anything regarding the info seen here. I don't teach people, I don't sell anything nor give anything out. So relax.
Cheers.
GoldViewFX - How to draw support and resistance levelsHey Everyone,
This is a repost for our newbies.
As promised alongside our analysis and reports we will also be posting basic educational posts to help newbies. Today we show you how to draw support and resistance levels the GoldViewFX way.
There are so many ways to draw and establish support and resistance levels. Typically this is an area where price stabilizes and fails to break providing support or resistance to price. Visually this can be represented by drawing a line to identify those areas. This can be drawn and identified in different ways. The 3 ways we draw support and resistance levels are as follows;
Firstly we identify where price is stabilized, this is likely to show a collection of candles side by side or by a candle or wick touch to a price and then a big retracement.
1 - We draw a line on the top or bottom of the candle body close of an area that price fails to break. Typically the highest or lowest wick from the collection of candles.
2 - We draw a line on the top or bottom of the candle body close of an area price fails to break. Typically the highest candle from the collection of candles.
3 - We identify the turning point of our moving average line (EMA5 IN OUR CASE). We then draw a line on the top or bottom of this turn (This is unique to us, so don't forget if you see it anywhere else).
Please don't forget to like, comment and follow to support us, we really appreciate it!
GoldViewFX
XAUUSD TOP AUTHOR
BUYING DIPS/SELLING TOPS - KEEPING A CLEAN PSYCHOLOGICAL PROFILEHey Everyone,
Here at GVFX, we are currently buying dips. What that means is that we buy on the dips and therefore only concentrate on long positions/buys with the odd sells for fun. As mentioned before, having both sell and buy positions open in your account will affect your psychology and in turn, your trading decisions.
Now a question that typically arises here is why would it still be advisable to buy when the market is pushing down? Firstly, let me assure you that the same algorithms, experience and strategies that we use to achieve a 97% hit rate with our bullish directional bias also gives us the heads up, or down if you will, on when the market is going down. Don't think for a moment that we only know how to analyse a bull market or up trends. We share targets/signals for both buys and sells but choose not to hedge out of choice. Our published results remain consistently profitable month in month out!!
In my experience, in the current market conditions, it is much safer to get out of a stuck buy position than a stuck sell position. That's not to mention the clean PSYCHOLOGICAL PROFILE that is achieved when trading in just one direction. And although hedging can in theory work, it requires years of experience and in the end, is simply not worth the effort. I am more than capable of hedging effectively but the fact that I do not should tell you something.
Let us look at an example to further answer the question highlighted above. When you have short-term bearish momentum down, we take buys from key supports or MAs which act as dips. Remember that the market does not go up or down in a straight line (with the rare exception of short-lived parabolic moves). So, when the market is going down and hits one of our key levels, a buy from that point will go back up for 20 to 30 or 30 to 40 pips (this number of pips has been calibrated based on back testing) before resuming back down.
You can think of it like this. The market moves in a zigzag manner. The zig is that part of the leg which is going down to create lower lows (if the downward trend is continuing). The zag is that part of the leg which takes a breather and pushes back up with momentum for our entry and quick pip-take range to create a lower high (if the downward trend is continuing) before heading back down again. We catch the right and safest waves (buys) in and out and surf to success. When price hits a key structural support or stops creating lower lows and lower highs, we then reassess for entries with a wider range of pip capture.
Hope this post helps our followers to understand how we keep our psychology strong!!
GoldViewFX
XAUUSD TOP AUTHOR
The Best Time to Buy an AssetThe passing of time often creates one of two things. It can create Wealth or it can create Regret.
For instance…
Many people will say, I wish I bought real estate, crypto, stocks, etc. at certain times…then I’d be rich. We are all pretty good at looking backward and saying, “What if?”.
With Investing, the two most common reasons people miss opportunities are because they aren’t paying attention or aren’t prepared…and usually, it’s both. The best thing to do is:
📌 Get Educated with proper knowledge
📌 Analyze different factors and Research on them
📌 Create a plan/strategy and start working on it
GoldViewFX - TRADING ETHOS & STRESS FREE TRADING
Here at GVFX, we constantly remind our followers to take profit off the table by banking in stages or protecting profit with a trailing stop after each incremental profit level has been reached as it heads toward the target TP. Far too many retail traders hold positions until it's too late and then the market turns against them and they end up breaking even or even making a loss in the hope that it will go back in the right direction and hit their ultimate, full-on dream TP.
Making money, or to use a specific example, getting into profit through a click on MT4/5 is an initial action. If that entry turns out to be profitable, it was either through blind luck or skilful analysis. Keeping that money, or profit on an open position in our example, requires learnt behaviour. Thus, you would either bank after a certain level of profit or trail your stop up/down depending on whether you're long or short using a habit that's now second nature to you. Growing money, or increasing your equity balance for our example, requires knowledge and discipline.
Growing your account size means not going in heavier with an increased lot size in relative terms to your account size simply because you've had a good run prior. It also means sticking to the same successful strategy that has made you profitable up to that point. Stay disciplined. Also, level up with your skills by gaining more knowledge regarding additional strategies (THAT FIT INTO YOUR EXISTING SYSTEM) and fine tune existing strategies to increase ROI. As an example of the latter, think about how you trail your entries. Advanced techniques on how to use trailing stops can significantly increase your profit on each entry.
Trading is a strategic business activity. It requires action, good habits and the thirst for knowledge. Trade safe and trade profitably.
GVFX - Stress Free Trading Strategy
If you find trading stressful, then one of two things is happening. Firstly, your trading strategy and risk management is not effective and the excessive drawdown (reversal) on each entry and/or the large number of entries you are having to chop is causing undue stress. Secondly, you may have a strategy and risk management style that works but you simply don't have the kind of personality/temperament that can tolerate any amount of stress. In the latter case, perhaps trading is not for you.
For those followers who occasionally want to take it easier for a bit of a break or for those who need to build up their resilience before being able to trade more aggressively, I suggest the following:
1) Risk no more than 1% even though we risk between 1 to 3 per cent.
2) Enter on a significant reversal to a key level. Do not enter on open even if it is a small lot as seeing this go into the red will cause you stress if you cannot handle it.
3) If you enter on a significant reversal, you can move the SL further back by the difference between where you opened your entry and the entry price on the trade setup. In that case, it will be unlikely that you will get anywhere near your SL so even if it reverses, you can relax.
Have a great weekend all
GoldViewFX
XAUUSD TOP AUTHOR
6 Reasons why the gold price will drop with interest rate hikes The FOMC announced another 50bps (0.50%) Interest Rate increase to 4.50% which has lead to short term downside for gold as an initial reaction.
The question for many remains.
Why does gold drop when interest rates rise?
There are a number of reasons, but here are the top 5…
#1: Investors look elsewhere
Higher interest rates can make other investments, such as fixed investment assets and bonds, more attractive to investors. Gold investors will then sell their gold holdings and take advantage of higher interest rate yielding assets. This can lead to investors moving their money out of gold, which can lead to a drop in price.
#2: Stronger U.S Dollar
A higher U.S dollar can lead to gold being more expensive for investors who use other currencies to buy it. This can lead to a drop in demand for gold, which brings the price lower.
#3: Higher borrowing costs
When interest rates rise, this increases the costs of borrowing for business and consumers. They now need to pay more to borrow money to fund their operations. This can hamper the economic activity and drop the demand for buying stocks, precious metals and other investments.
#4: Higher yields on gold-mining companies bonds
Fixed investment gold bonds may seem more attractive than holding and investing in gold itself. This leads to a drop in gold mining stocks which essentially helps with the drop in gold.
#5: More supply less demand
With the factors I mentioned above, with investors leaving gold this increases the supply of the metal and decreases the demand. This leads to a drop in the gold price.
#6: Uncertainty floods the markets
When interest rates go up, this leads to uncertainty in financial markets (where gold is no exception). Investors feel the uncertainty and become worried for the economy. This can lead to a decrease in demand for gold and a drop in its price.
These are all speculations in theory with why the gold price may drop with an increase in interest rates. We notice that the markets don’t always play according…
Since the May 2022 Gold has moved in a sideways consolidation pattern. And this means, we can see the price continue in the range. Until we actually see a break up or down, the analysis in the medium term is sideways. We’ll be watching this carefully.
Follow for more trading and fundamentals tips and analyses from the info I've learnt over the last 20 years as a trader.
Trade well, live free.
Timon
MATI Trader
Higher interest rates can also lead to higher yields on gold-mining companies' bonds, which can make these bonds more attractive to investors. This can lead to a decrease in demand for gold-mining stocks and a drop in the price of gold.
Higher interest rates can also increase the opportunity cost of holding gold, as the metal does not generate any income or interest. This can make investors less likely to hold onto gold as a long-term investment.
Gold is often seen as a hedge against inflation, and higher interest rates can signal that the central bank is trying to keep inflation in check. This can reduce the perceived need for gold as a hedge and lead to a drop in its price.
How To Prepare For Rising PricesA blog article discussing how inflation is impacting family budgets, what it means for household budgets in the US, and some basic strategies people can use to help manage by RobinhoodFX
Robinhoodfx.
Intro
In recent months, we've seen inflationary pressures building in the U.S. economy. Prices for key commodities like crude oil and agricultural products are rising, and wages are starting to creep up as well. All of this points to one thing: higher prices for consumers in the months ahead.
How can you prepare for rising prices? Here are a few tips:
Know where your money is going. Track your spending for a month or two so you have a good understanding of where your money goes each month. This will help you identify areas where you can cut back if necessary.
Make a budget and stick to it. Once you know where your money is going, it's time to create a budget that ensures you're spending wisely. Be realistic in your assumptions about inflation and make sure your budget can withstand a bit of financial volatility.
Invest in yourself. Inflation erodes the value of assets like cash and bonds, so it's important to invest in assets that hold their value or even increase in value over time. One great way to do this is to invest in yourself through education or job training that will make you more valuable in the workforce.
Stay disciplined with your spending. When prices start rising, it's tempting to spend more freely since "everything is going up." But if you want to stay ahead of inflation, it's important to keep your spending under control and focus on essential purchases only
What is Inflation?
Inflation is the rate of increase in the price of goods and services over time. It is measured as the percentage change in the consumer price index (CPI) or producer price index (PPI).
Inflation can be caused by a variety of factors, including excess money supply, government spending, and global factors such as commodity prices.
Excess money supply is when there is more money in circulation than there are goods and services to purchase. This can happen when the Federal Reserve prints more money or banks lend out more money than they have on deposit.
Government spending can also cause inflation if it exceeds tax revenue. When the government spends more than it takes in through taxes, it has to print more money to cover the deficit. This increases the money supply and can lead to inflation.
Global factors such as commodity prices can also affect inflation. For example, if the price of oil rises, this will likely lead to higher prices for gas and other products that use oil as an input.
How Do Inflation Rates Affect Prices?
Inflation rates can have a significant effect on prices, particularly over the long term. When inflation is high, prices tend to rise, and when inflation is low, prices tend to fall. In general, higher inflation rates mean that consumers will pay more for goods and services, while lower inflation rates mean that they will pay less.
How Does Inflation Affect Prices?
Inflation is the rate at which the prices of goods and services in an economy increase over time. The main drivers of inflation are changes in the demand for goods and services, and changes in the supply of money. When there is more money chasing after fewer goods and services, prices go up. The opposite happens when there is less money chasing after more goods and services; prices go down.
What Does This Mean for Consumers?
For consumers, inflation can have both positive and negative effects. On the one hand, rising prices can erode the purchasing power of their incomes, making it difficult to afford basic necessities or maintain their standard of living. On the other hand, inflation can be beneficial if it leads to higher wages and salaries; as long as wages grow at a faster rate than prices, consumers will be better off.
What Does This Mean for Investors?
Investors need to be aware of how changes in inflation might affect their portfolios. For example, investments in Treasury bonds become less attractive when inflation is high because the fixed payments on these bonds lose value relative to other investments that offer higher
Rising Costs: Why are They Happening Now?
There are a number of factors that are causing prices to rise in the United States. The most significant factor is the increasing cost of labor. Wages have been rising steadily for the past few years, and this is putting pressure on businesses to raise prices in order to cover their increased costs.
Other factors that are contributing to rising prices include the increasing cost of raw materials, such as oil and gas, as well as transportation costs. These costs are being passed on to consumers in the form of higher prices for goods and services.
inflation is also playing a role in driving up prices. The Federal Reserve has been keeping interest rates low in an effort to stimulate economic growth, but this has led to higher inflationary pressures. As prices start to increase, Americans will have less purchasing power and will be forced to cut back on spending.
The rising costs of health care are also putting upward pressure on prices. The Affordable Care Act has led to increased demand for health care services, which has driven up prices. In addition, the aging population is requiring more medical care, which is also contributing to higher costs.
All of these factors are leading to rising prices across the economy. American consumers will need to brace themselves for higher prices for goods and services in the months and years ahead.
How Everyday Consumers Can Best Prepare for the Potential Impact
There are a few things that everyday consumers can do to best prepare for the potential impact of rising prices in the U.S. First, it’s important to be aware of what’s happening in the economy and how it might affect your finances. Second, make sure you have an emergency fund in place in case prices go up unexpectedly or you lose your job. Third, consider ways to cut costs so you can save money. Finally, invest in yourself and your career so you’re prepared for any changes that might come.
The Ramifications of Higher Unemployment and Lower Employment Rates
Unemployment and lower employment rates have a number of ramifications. Perhaps the most obvious is that fewer people are employed and earning an income. This can lead to less spending, which can in turn lead to less economic activity and slower growth. Additionally, when people are unemployed or underemployed, they may have difficulty meeting their basic needs, which can lead to increased stress and anxiety levels. This can also result in social problems such as crime. Additionally, unemployment can have a ripple effect on businesses, as they may have to lay off workers or cut back on hours/wages. Lastly, high unemployment rates can lead to political instability.
Solutions to Fighting Inflation
Inflation is a major concern for Americans and it is on the rise. Luckily, there are steps that you can take to prepare for rising prices and protect your finances.
One of the best ways to fight inflation is to invest in assets that will hold their value or appreciate over time. This includes investing in stocks, real estate, and precious metals. These investments will increase in value as the cost of living goes up, giving you a buffer against inflation.
Another solution to fighting inflation is to create a budget and stick to it. This will help you keep track of your spending and make sure that you are not overspending on items that are likely to increase in price. Additionally, saving money each month will give you a cushion to fall back on if prices do start to rise rapidly.
There are many other solutions to fighting inflation, but these are two of the most effective. If you are concerned about rising prices, take action now and start preparing for the future.
Conclusion
If you're worried about rising prices in the United States, there are a few things you can do to prepare. First, start by evaluating your spending and see where you can cut back. Then, make sure you have an emergency fund in place so that unexpected expenses don't throw off your budget. Finally, keep an eye on inflation rates and invest in assets that will hold their value over time. By following these steps, you can protect yourself from rising prices and maintain your financial stability.
GOLD | Elliot Wave | A Text Book Example?GOLD | Elliot Wave | A Text Book Example?
It is extremely rare that in reality, we find patterns in textbook examples.
Gold is currently presenting such an opportunity which I will explain in detail.
According to Elliot's Wave theory, an impulsive wave is created by 5 waves.
3 of these waves are impulsive (1,3 and 5)
2 waves are corrective (2 and 4)
According to the books, each impulsive wave is composed of 5 waves of the lower degree that can be seen in the lower chart time frames.
In our real-time example, the price has created the 3rd wave of a daily chart (in red). So it should be ready for the 4th wave correction.
If we look at the 4-hour chart, we can see that the 3rd wave can be broken down into 5 other waves (in blue)
And the 5th wave of the third wave (in blue) seems to be completed by 5 other waves (in black)
Maybe this is the moment we can see an ABC correction before the price goes up again for the 5th wave (in red).
The price correction zone is expected to be 1748 - 1730 in order for the price to rise again.
Thank you and Good Luck!
Daily Chart!
4-Hour chart:
XLE Energy sector FAANG of 2022Energy sector perform well in 2022 almost 46.6% till to date. Russian invasion boost it well and Energy and Oil stocks big profits, but these stocks and sector can not trend for long connected with supply and demand. Winter running in Europe and it's almost on peak or little more gap to upside.
Endless Debate Among Investors & Traders: Which One is Better?Have you ever seen the debate on any social media platforms between traders and investors?
On each side, Investors or Traders Claimed their techniques were far superior to the other because of the capability of earning more profit and a High Win Rate.
Endless Debate Between Investors and Traders never stops to this day. They are blinded by their false sense of superiority. They failed to recognize the similarity between them. Both were waiting for the ideal price level before buying stocks to get a capital gain or dividend (Money) with a bit different approach. The Investors determine the ideal price level to buy the stock by analyzing the Intrinsic value of the company and then buying the company below its Intrinsic Value (buying a Cheap Company and Selling it at its fair price). On the other hand, Traders will analyze the historical price movement and look for repeating patterns that may indicate a potential upside movement before buying the stock at the determined price level.
We have some similarities in method and purpose. If both sides could prove themselves profitable in the long run, why are we wasting our time to win the debate?
It would be best if we use your time wisely to improve your strategy than debating on Social Media Platforms.
Improving your strategy can make you more money!
*Disclaimer On: The Article is for Educational Purposes Only.
FOREX & COMMODITIES CORRELATIONHello everyone!
Today we will discuss the correlation for some currencies and commodities.
GOLD GROWTH
Recently, gold has risen sharply.
Not everyone knows why and what may happen next.
But if you disassemble gold, then historically, it turned out that in difficult economic moments or in a crisis, dollars are exchanged for gold, since GOLD has historically been considered a rescue tool from inflation.
As you know, inflation eats up the value of the dollar and gold is an excellent tool for saving money.
According to the above, the DOLLAR and GOLD have an inverse correlation, that is, when the DOLLAR falls, GOLD rises and vice versa.
In addition, gold can be an indicator of the future crisis and or acceleration of inflation.
Maybe that's why GOLD is growing now?
CANADIAN DOLLAR AND OIL
Canada occupies one of the first places in the world in oil production.
And, of course, oil plays an important role in the country's economy.
As soon as oil prices rise, the CANADIAN DOLLAR becomes stronger.
Conversely, the fall in the cost of oil has a bad effect on the currency.
SWISS FRANC
Switzerland is historically famous for its economy and its banks.
Trillions of dollars are stored in Swiss bank accounts.
We will not talk about how they get there, where and why, but the main thing is that everyone knows that many people keep money there.
Switzerland is a time-tested country, people trust their country and consider it very reliable.
Do not forget that 25% of Switzerland's reserves are secured by gold.
The currency is very strongly linked to gold and therefore when gold falls, the currency falls too, and when gold grows, the currency grows.
Everything is simple.
There are many correlations of currencies with other assets in the world.
There is also a correlation between currencies.
An attentive trader will be able to identify a pattern and make money on it.
Thanks!
Traders, if you liked this idea or if you have your own opinion about it, write in the comments. I will be glad 👩💻
It’s trading wheaty (pretty) high now...Continuing the topic of spreads between related commodities, the Hard Red Winter Wheat – Soft Red Winter Wheat spread is another one trading at an extreme level now.
A brief explanation on the different types of wheat we are referring to here:
1) The Hard Red Winter Wheat (HRW) is the most widely grown class of wheat. A high protein product, used for breads, some types of Asian noodles and general-purpose flour.
2) The Soft Red Winter Wheat (SRW) is the third largest class of wheat variety grown in the US, lower protein wheat used in producing confectionary products such as cookies, crackers, and other bread products.
Generally, the HRW Wheat Futures (KE) trades at a premium to the SRW Wheat Futures (ZW) due to the higher protein content, however other factors such as production levels and supply demand dynamics may disrupt this spread, as seen from the wide range it has been trading since 1977.
Currently, this spread is trading close to 132 cents, with only one instance where it has traded higher, which was in March 2011 when this spread reached an all-time high of 164.
We attribute the spread trading at a high now due to the following 2 reasons:
1) The 2022 HRW production is currently the lowest on record since 1963, due to widespread droughts across many of the HRW production regions.
2) The average protein content of the 2022 yield is higher than last year, as well as the average of the past 5 years, resulting in a higher quality crop.
As a result, HRW is trading at a premium as supply shortage and a higher quality product pushes the price higher, while SRW sees average production and quality.
While it is challenging to assess the production levels and quality for the next season, from a risk reward perspective, we see an opportunity here. The past few spread peaks have been clearly marked out by Relative Strength Index (RSI) pointing oversold. With the 10-year average for the spread at 6.3 cents and the RSI now oversold, we lean bearish on the spread.
Referencing the average of the past 3 declines at 150 cents and lasting 511 days, we could set out trade levels.
If the historical pattern holds this time, a conservative target of 120 cents and a trade length of 500 days points us to the 15-cent level. We see the current set-up as an opportunistic one, with similar episodes in the past pointing lower. CME also has the synthetic KC HRW Wheat-Wheat Intercommodity Spread, which can be used to express the same view and is financially settled.
The charts above were generated using CME’s Real-Time data available on TradingView. Inspirante Trading Solutions is subscribed to both TradingView Premium and CME Real-time Market Data which allows us to identify trading set-ups in real-time and express our market opinions. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
Disclaimer:
The contents in this Idea are intended for information purpose only and do not constitute investment recommendation or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products or services. They serve as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate fundamental concepts in risk management under given market scenarios.
Sources:
www.uswheat.org
www.cmegroup.com
www.cmegroup.com
www.usda.gov
📖 5 Books On Trading That Everyone Should Know 📖📖 5 Books On Trading That Everyone Should Know 📖
📖 1. Reminiscences of a Stock Operator - Edwin Lefèvre.
📖 Reminiscences of a Stock Operator is a fabularized biography of the most famous speculator of all time Jesse Livermoore. Jesse Livermoore operated in the stock and commodity markets in the early 20th century in the 1920s to be exact. He was one of those speculators who made an astronomical fortune almost from scratch. He made and lost fortunes. His wins and losses as of today could be counted in the hundreds of millions of dollars. His speculative concepts and brilliant remarks on the markets, inspired and still inspire speculators around the world today. Despite the passage of 100 years since those events, the strategies and trading approach have not lost their value, I would even say they have gained. The book reads very well, it is written in accessible language, everyone will be able to understand it and take something for themselves. A must-have item on the shelf at every trader's home.
📖 2.The Disciplined Trader - Mark Douglas
📖 The Disciplined Trader. One of the first books that on such a scale spread interest in psychological elements in trading. Mark Douglas, after working with many traders in his career, noticed that mental elements are one of the main barriers to success in trading. He presents in his book the principles and mental attitudes that are necessary for success in this industry, it is worth mentioning that these attitudes are fundamentally different to what we have been taught to live in society. An ideal book for people who feel that the technical aspect has been mastered, but still feel that they have some internal blockages that block them from achieving systematic results in trading.
📖 3. Market Wizards - Jack D. Schwager
📖 Market Wizards. Book-talk. This is the first, and considered by many to be the most important, part of Jack Schwager's conversations with prominent traders. In it we can hear their stories and thoughts on trading of such people as: Jim Rogers, Paul Tudor Jones, Larry Hite, William O'Neil.
In the book we can read a lot of conversations in which each trader brings something from himself and presents his specific view of the market. We will learn a lot about technical analysis, as well as fundamental analysis, risk management and many other aspects related to trading. Everyone can find something for themselves. It is not a book to be read from cover to cover.
📖 4. The Intelligent Investor - Benjamin Graham
📖 A book of investing legends. The most prominent investment advisor of the 20th century. Since its publication, the book has become, so to speak, a holy book of the stock market and the philosophy of "value investing" with which every investor must become familiar. Its philosophy and the principles it recommends to follow teach and inspire investors around the world to this day. It is worth mentioning that Warren Buffett was one of Graham's disciples and repeatedly mentions how great an influence he had on him. A must-have item for any aspiring long-term investor
📖 5. Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets - John J. Murphy
📖 Another holy book this time on technical analysis. This book is a comprehensive expedition presenting the vast majority of technical analysis concepts. John J. Murphy, thanks to his 30 years of experience working in financial institutions, takes the reader through all the topics that are key to understanding technical analysis. It is an excellent primer, which allows for an accessible and understandable introduction to the world of technical analysis. The book lays a solid foundation, thanks to which you will be able to expand your analytical skills. Everything we need to know about charts can be found in this book. It is no wonder that to this day it is a worldwide bestseller and the most popular book on the technical aspects of market analysis.
📖 Have you read any of the books mentioned? share your opinion in the comments.
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Educational Series - Smart Money Concepts ( Liquidity )Hi there guys!
I will be doing a short tutorial on Smart Money Concept's liquidity.
What is it?
- Liquidity acts as a driver to move the market in a specific price range.
- We can find liquidity in areas where many people place stop losses and buy/sell stops.
- Market makers will manipulate the price in order to break through these obvious zones and seize the liquidity.
How to look for them
- You will be looking for areas where price are of relative equal highs/lows.
- Areas where price has not gone to swept the "stop losses"
Why is it useful?
- Helps to forecast where price might potentially head to
- Potential areas for take profits upon clearing of liquidity
- Avoid placing your stop loss at liquidity areas
It takes some time to learn how to spot liquidity.
If you do enjoy this tutorial, feel free to follow me and boost this post! :)
Regards,
Chen Yongjin
Learn Paralysis By Analysis | Trading Psychology
Hey traders,
In this article, we will discuss a very important term in trading psychology - paralysis by analysis.
Paralysis by analysis occurs when the trader is overwhelmed by a complexity of the data that he is working with. Most of the time, it happens when one is relying on wide spectra of non correlated metrics. That can be various trading indicators, different news outlets and analytical articles and multiple technical tools.
Relying on such a mixed basket, one will inevitably be stuck with the contradictory data.
For example, the technical indicators may show very bearish clues while the fundamental data is very bullish. Or it can be even worse, when the traders have dozens of indicators on his chart and half of them dictates to open a long position, while another half dictates to sell.
As a result, the one becomes paralyzed, not being able to make a decision. Moreover, each attempt to comprehend the data leads to deeper and deeper overthinking, driving into a vicious circle.
The paralysis breeds the inaction that necessarily means the missed trading opportunities and profits.
How to deal with that?
The best option is to limit the number of data sources used for a decision-making. The rule here is simple - the fewer indicators you use, the easier it is to make a decision.
There is a common fallacy among traders, that complexity breeds the profit. With so many years of trading, I realized, however, that the opposite is true...
Keep the things simple, and you will be impressed how accurate your predictions will become.
❤️If you have any questions, please, ask me in the comment section.
Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
Trading Psychology (Part 1)A philosophy I engage in when trading the markets
- I am not self-employed as a trader.
- The market is my boss and my trades are my employees.
- I merely manage those employees.
Traders often have to think fast and make quick decisions, darting in and out of positions on short notice.
To accomplish this, you need a certain presence of mind. You need the discipline to stick with your own trading plans and know when to book profits and losses. Emotions simply can't get in the way.
It’s NOT that winning traders formulate better trading strategies
It’s NOT that winning traders are smarter
It’s NOT that winning traders do better market analysis
One personal characteristic that almost all winning traders share is that of self-confidence .
Winning traders possess a firm, basic belief in their ability to BE winning traders.
GOLD MTF Wave stochastic example for trend reverseSometimes you don't need to count all of the Elliott Waves and pinpointing where the last Impulse started is enough to located the proper Time frame to look for that wave ending on the MTF. in this case the 1 month chart was the relative Time frame for the last impulse upwards (see where I wrote MTF stoch wave start) and you can see that from the Stoch being oversold on all time frames. then notice how the green (HTF) starts curving down at the end with a tap from blue and gray as a potential local top to exit at.. this is often all you need to trade a simple wave without too much complication. Please do not hesitate to ask any questions
Gold Order Flow - Bears Rule The MarketHey traders,
Yet again, the OFA script clearly show we should not be meddling with the affairs of the bears, side fully in control of the price action in the Gold market.
Let the flows, identified via the formation of fractal-based structures, determine the path of least resistance. As usual, credit where is due (Bill Williams). The script simply makes it visually easier to call these trend, which otherwise would be seemingly hard to continuously identify through manual analysis.
Be reminded, when applying the OFA script , it has 2 main components to study:
Magnitude: A major clue that will help determine the health of a trend is the type of progress by the dominant side in control of the trend. We need to ask the following question: Are the new legs in the active buy-sell side campaign as identified by the script increasing or decreasing in magnitude?
Velocity: When it comes to the distance the price moves, the magnitude is only ½ the equation. The other ½ has to do with the velocity of the move or the speed. Was the new leg created after a fast and impulsive move? Or did price make a new low or high with the movement being sluggish, compressive and taking too long to form? A good rule of thumb is to count the number of candles it took to achieve a new leg.
DISCLAIMER: This post contains commentary published solely for educational and informational purposes. This post's content (and any content available through links in this post) and its views do not constitute financial advice or an investment or trading recommendation, and they do not account for readers' personal financial circumstances, or their investing or trading objectives, time frame, and risk tolerance. Readers should perform their own due diligence, and consult a qualified financial adviser or other investment / financial professional before entering any trade, investment or other transaction.
A little peek into how I catch sniper trades with zero drawdownSorry guys, I didn't post today, but caught a cracker gold sell. I would like to give a small insight to how I look for sniper trades, especially in London open.
If you look at the 2 red arrows, you will see that during New York yesterday, price made a high of the day at the 200ema, which acts as a resistance/support, in this case it is a resistance for obvious reasons. The Asian session High came up to test this same zone, as seen on the second red arrow. Effectively making a double top in the higher time frame, that is the 1hr chart.
Price then broke below the 200ema, as well as the 50ema(red) in the Asian/London changeover, when price broke below the 50 ema, that ema became resistance and not support, price came back up to retest that resistance as indicated with the yellow arrow. When the price could not break that ema, and instead ended with an engulfing going short, that was my perfect entry for the morning. 140pips have never been easier. Patience and confirmation are key.
This is the simplest form of my strategy, there are obviously more components to how I trade, but this is the simplest and most fundamental way for catching great entries.
Boost if you like what you see. Safe Trading
P.S. GJ is Bae!!
Smart Money Concepts versus Long Money ConceptsFor the past 2 years I'd say I endowed myself in the study of a few technical approaches, and I have to say the most flawed is using smart money concept annotations to build a trade bias, as each annotation from a BOS, to order block can be subjective on every time frame.
I feel the overlying goal for any trader is to first align themself with the trend.
As you see on this chart, I have a refined, untapped order block on this 15 minute chart succeeding a bleed off in the previous session followed by what most traders perceive as a dead range but it isn't. I've come to notice in these ranges, price tends to scatter interest using a series of corrections
on lower timeframes. Flats, Running Flats, and Diagonals are scattering price movements, but nowadays they call them complex pullbacks. Shaking my head. It's complex because the language you are trying to codify the price movements with does not align with the environment.
Now order blocks in line with the trend are high probability, but is usually succeeding a correction.
I think ever since liquidity became a focal point of most traders as now it is a buzzword, most traders only look for nuances such as CHOCH, which is simply an ABC, with order flow being extending and clear intentions made in the C leg.
I mean it sounds cool, but its all buzzwords, and have no relation to the true nature of pricing.
Price does not just move, reverse, or stop. It fluctuates in what may seem as unpredictive nature but in all reality its all mathematical and involves keeping a study of price action and the models you build using the same predictive format. Of course with the addition of granularity into the lower timeframes,
trying to trade order blocks may seem incomprehensible, because at most times it is.
Understanding Price cannot be done with SMC alone, and I feel most traders who do employ the idea of SMC are looking for marketability factors for their trading and more or less uses ICT concepts to overlay their own trading understanding,
ICT even said himself that Order blocks are just visual representations. Visual representations of price activity at specific point in time. But what did the order block accomplish? Why are you positioned within the order block itself?
This is why I don't trade SMC and removed it from my trading understanding and rather I u
It doesn't build enough context.
Now lets add context to this bearish order block at (C)5 on the 15M.
We can make assumption that the strong order flow in the sell to buy includes the 3rd wave extension as price made a sub minor correction in the 47 percent area of the sub impulse (C)5, which is the (A) wave.
At the print of the A wave, the bullish sub impulse was so weak, it didn't shift any order flow on the 4H chart, but in contrast, the correction back into order flow gave print to wider range bear candles in comparison to the previous bullish order flow.
Although corrective, price made clear objective to extend price downward over time with a definable 3rd wave extension and impulse back into the untapped supply to demand flip which is another SMC concept. This if course brought in many traders of this concept, and with it trade stops just below the order block which was eventually ran as you can see.
Now for everything else. Ill just update the idea if requested. Im tired of typing at this point. Thank you though and feel free to comment.
