Commodities
Here are a few tips every one should knowHere's a couple of tips from me that might help in your trading. Those are just my opinions and all are belong to me.
Practice think practice think review old ones repeat repeat repeat. It takes a whole lot of thinking and a whole lot of practicing to be good.
Give your brain practice all the time like a muscle, and just repeat over and over. Look at examples, past trades, re-read what to do and what not to, re-read all your rules over and over, not until you know them, until forever or they'll just fade away. The more you hammer it in the better you get.
Be logical DO NOT FOMO AND INSIST (or enjoy lose lose lose and then miss the final move that is a winner).
Mistakes are really expensive. Best to miss out and not force and go look at something else, possibly analyse that one you missed and understand why you missed it, and how to fix, maybe by simplifying the way you detect those.
Spend a whole lot of time analysing markets... Try really hard to really think every trade through... do not waste time on "meh" setups.
Missing out is not that big of a deal imagine you get 10 of those a month, that's 120/year, now imagine you miss out 2/month you still get to 96/year and you had more time to spend on the 96. And you can still learn something from what you missed out on. Better than losing sanity from looking at charts hunting for setups all the time (and ending up forcing trades and bleeding capital).
Price action is not physics.
A "weak uptrend" is really what they call a long bull market that ran over countless bears that are all underwater in much pain, and often it ends up with bears giving up and a massive green candle up.
And same, a "strong uptrend" is what they call price action with no bears. They did not vanish into another dimension, they just are not present in the market right now. But they are around. Which means they could be just around the corner and all jump in at the same time and reverse the price.
In general I think the best is to not go against a "weak" trend ever. What is weak and what is strong enough? That's for you to find out.
If you want to go against a pullback it is generally better to enter on vertical price action.
People when they see violent price action get scared and remove their orders. The opposite is the right thing to do.
Slow price => remove order. Violent price => GOOD, bring it on. Of course you will get run over from time to time.
This is your job as a speculator.
Speaking of weak trends, do not just use a price stop, but also a time stop:
Price just goes nowhere for a long while => Get out.
There is no reason for risk ever to be over 2% , and those are reserved for top stuff. Usually around half a percent is good especially when starting, then it can be scaled as the acc grows and even increased progressively to 1% to get a decent sized account.
If you really are very certain of your strategy and want to go fast and cannot contain yourself then it is perfectly fine ok I understand you can risk more than a small 2% that barely will make you any money who wants to be spending hundreds of hours to make $50 :)
Go for it. Make sure you can not lose more than all of your money, such as with using options or stocks that can only go to zero.
At that point the strategy does not even matter. Also make sure you use alot of money, that you spent years to save up.
And then keep taking trades until you lose everything. You really have to make sure it is very painful and you go into despair and lose all hope.
Trust me when I say with 99% certainty you will really learn your lesson and won't require to learn it again.
You will then not ever want to "go quick" again. 99% efficiency guarenteed. You won't have these stupid urges to risk big.
If your spouse leaves you it is even better. Leaves a scar that won't heal as a permanent reminder.
And consider yourself lucky that you only lost everything.
Gold -- Upgrade Your Trading To Higher level By Following This🗒 Just browsing through my analysis means a lot to me.
➡️ Please follow the analysis very carefully and every detail of the chart means a lot. And always entry depends on many reasons carefully studied
Always enter into deals when there are more than 5 reasons
combined
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How To Trade Like big Boy's - and Have Full Vision To Compete The Market
By Using Gann Square Fixed
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First Step -- Chose Good Low Far From Current Price Area --
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Second Step - First Vertical line Should be on Next Bottom
That before the Sharp Movement
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Step 3
Reversal Zone Here as we Can See
----- Price Sharp Movement when Enter this
Time Zone + Support line + Square line
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Step 4 We Can Easly See a Very Good Support line
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Step 5 We Can Easly See a Very Good Support line
With Time Zone Here - So Good Reversal
this mean Reversal Zone ..
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you Can Mix this Strategy with Trend analysis and your own Style to maximum your Earning's
Why chasing % should be your focus and not pips!Here we look at 3 traders, all claiming to have a winning trade with 100 pips - however, with very different % gains on their accounts.
The main part of trading is profitability, you can not pay your bills with pips.
This explains what you need to focus on and be aware of!
Hope it helps,
Regards
Darren
Win rate. How to stay if profit zone...This painting is quite simple, but many novices can't use it because they don't have the patience.
So, they close their profitable positions with 1/1 or 1/2 risk/reward ratio.
But hold losses for a long time.
Hope this post will save your money and time.
You can be in profits even with low persentage of successfull trades but as you see only with 1/5 ratio!
Keep calm! Use predictable ratio! Become better every day!
Push like and write your comments.
Thanks for your support!
Basic explanation of elliot wave using GOLD Here's a short video for any new traders who want to learn the basics of elliot wave analysis. I made this for a friend but thought I'd just post it on a public platform so it could help others as well.
Pardon the quality! I've never made a video before so shall continue to improve in the future :)
Your guide to success [Beginners start here]***************************
Getting started as a Padawan
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Learn about investing
When you start you should be interested.
There are many ways to learn about investing:
Books/videos/the internet/Losing money trading for the first time.
My first trades (both speculative and not) were Forex, but I really got started "full time" (still had a job at first but spent a good 12 hours a day in this) in Q4 2017 with the crypto bubble. I looked at charts by myself, I also watched hundreds of hours of videos on crypto, technical analysis, price action, markets, I read articles on the internet, I looked at alot of tradingview ideas (where I started to notice herd patterns just like in real life). Being able to filter out the garbage is on you, and you have to check by yourself every thing you learn.
If you can't bother reading or hearing about monetary policies, the economy, charts, risk to reward, probabilities, now is a good time to quit.
Pick markets you like more
The "retail" markets are usually: Indices, stocks (especially us), forex, crypto, hard commodities.
It's ok to go back and forth, and even when you pick say 1 or 2 main markets to look at, you can still take a peak from time to time at other ones, but careful, you only have 1 brain, and you might just end up losing money.
My own experience: Forex (usd, eur, gbp, jpy, mxn, sek, aud, cad, nzd, chf), Commodities (Gold, Oil, NatGas, Copper).
I sometimes look at other markets there might be something interesting and I might get something out: Bitcoin, Ethereum, Silver, Grains.
I am a consistent loser in stocks and indices yikes. Not like slightly below breakeven. No, like 100% losing rate. Hey I got the holy grail.
I dislike USDJPY, I love EURJPY, not sure about some trashpairs such as EURNZD. I like all USD pairs except USDJPY. In the crosses I like AUDCAD EURSEK GBPAUD GBPCAD GBPJPY EURJPY. Some interest in USDCNH sometimes. I look at USDZAR and USDTRY but never touch them.
With time you get your favorites, your best and worse performers.
Learn about that market specifics
You may be shocked but different markets work differently. First of all different hours (fx = 24 hours a day 5 days a week, oil is open 23 hours a day, most cme agri have 2 trading sessions with 3 per-market, stocks trade 8 hours a day with a pre and post market, crypto is 247...).
And then unlike what some people that have never made money say, sorry but they just behave differently. When you learn to trade penny stocks you can't be an all around jack of all trades that will be able to trade dirt in Kyrgyzstan.
As I said I like (certain) forex pairs & commodities, and do best with those, one reason is because they trend on the timeframes I'm best at and prefer. FX trends for days, Stocks trend for months, and so on. The patterns are different, the trends are different, the valuation is different etc. Bitcoin had 3 bull markets, and they all lasted 1-2 years, going straight up, why would anyway look at a 4 hour chart? There is only 1 way to trade Bitcoin in those situation and this is buy and hold. You might have wanted to buy pullbacks and hold for each wave within the bull market in 2017, but that's still several months of holding. First 2 corrections were ok, maybe some multi day or week buy/sell there, the current one is absolutely disgusting except from a straight down in 2018 and straight up in 2019.
Pick a timeframe
I swear every one wants to either be:
- A (lazy) passive investor that will get rich doing nothing, because people told them this is what works and always will (cough cough)
- A (gambler) day trader that will get rich quick making 2% every day (hahaha), because this is how brokers make the most money the fastest
90/90/90 => 90% of traders lose 90% of their money in 90 days. This might be a little exagerated but that's the idea.
Brokers know they'll all be gone in a few months so they push to day trade so these losses are as much as possible made via commission, rather than a few big bagholding losers that evaporate into the market in a few weeks.
And as I said, different markets really work on different timeframes. FX (& Gold & Oil & so on) I think the best timeframes are H1 H4 D1, Bitcoin that would be the daily and weekly (during trends), stocks weekly and monthly I suppose (and daily during crashes).
Keep in mind the lower the timeframe, the bigger the spread. If you want to day trade FX well I hope you enjoy having your reward to risk divided by 2. Other than the Dow Jones and Dax indices (and cryptos especially as MM on Bitmex) everything is really expensive to speculate on on very low timeframes.
An exception: Ending markets. Gold in July 2020 when it went parabolic, Oil when it went negative, that sort of things. But why would you want to close a mighty winner at 5 pm and go watch tv when you should be staying in as long as the price is skyrocketing? A few more hours = a few more R.
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Getting ready to make money
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Have fun spending hours on statistics (backtesting)
You heard people tell you what works and what does not. The stuff I hear... It's up to you to check if that 🎪 oversold RSI strategy works, and by looking at charts and taking notes, you will find out that it overwhelmingly does not.
Forget about your dreams of building the perfect mecanical holy grail. You need to know what you are interested in at first (reversals, pullbacks, powerful breaks, buying highs & lows in sideways choppy markets and losing money...) and then look at that, have to start somewhere.
If you try looking at everything then see you in the mental ward in 2 months.
Just find what works, what does not. At least you should have a vague idea of where to enter, odds, etc.
You can't just jump in blindly in anything because CNBC, because "cheap" and then as soon as it goes against you go "wow I have no idea what to expect and what to do" 😆. So typical.
Pick a charting provider
Most frustrate me to no end. I hate them with a passion. Is it that hard to let me freely scale and move my chart around? Really? You can put all those idiotic indicators to make sure day traders are as active as possible and lose as much as possible, but you cannot give us a simple measuring tool? Wow, just wow.
TradingView is really good. I don't see what people could want more. Unless they miss a market idk the Kyrgyzstan stock market maybe, then I would say they have everything on the charting side.
Use good news services
Don't be a Scrooge McDuck and dish out that $24,000 for a yearly bloomberg terminal sub. Did you know they have 325,000 subscribers worldwide?
We're obviously all poor and need to use what little money we have for essentials & risk capital. Under $2.5 million of risk capital I would not even consider it.
You might think "oh no, I want to isolate from the news because hype because I want to not be emotional" or whatever.
Now first of all you're crazy if you do because the hype & emotions are the best part and you are missing out on all the fun.
And as we have seen I myself have a watchlist of 25 fx pairs (10 currencies), 4 commodities, plus a dozen or more other tickers I may be interested in.
You want to only trade the price action, ok. You're actually going to carefully check 30 charts every single day? Wow. And not forget to check several dozen stocks indices etc from other markets regularly and be ready for a big move? Well congratulations rain man.
The media & investor hype tells you what is interesting to watch. And I'm sure it helps your opinion and subconscious mind.
In July the dollar crashed as it should, and accelerated in the second part of the month and then I kept looking for shorts and guess what I kept winning and had a monster month. Gold & silver went up back then but I was too busy, and I did join gold in August when it was past ath and there was some hype and the laggards were starting to buy.
Deposit with a regulated decent broker that suits you
You're all ready. Time to deposit on a good broker and promise yourself this time you won't blow your account. This time it'll work out.
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What you'll be doing for the rest of your life
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Look for ideas, "inspiration"
That's when you look at charts and remember or tag or set an alert on the ones that seem interesting to you.
And that's when the news in general can come in handy. "K what is undervalued" "K what is exploding up I want to join - er I mean fight the trend and get decimated".
Price action or no price action, there is more to this business than just drawing lines on a chart and placing an order based on price action. Much more.
Decide on what you want to see
Say you have an interest in Oil, Gold, and the USDollar. It is required you see something to take action. A strong break followed by a small pullback?
A double top accompanied by mainstreet euphoria, signaling a top?
You are a sniper and you do not just rush to a rooftop and shoot at random passerbys hoping to get your target.
This is what the USA did in the Obama era in Yemen with drones. You are not the USA.
Have a plan before setting an order
You shall NOT jump into something without a plan first, you are not Bud Spencer that punches first asks questions later. This is an order.
The number of times I heard people go "Ok so I bought x. Price is going down. What should I do I have no idea? Please fast!".
I heard, not from personal experience but from others, that even "pros" with at least months in a company, have been spotted asking those questions.
You know who you are. Please don't do this. Hahaha I nearly cry when I think of this, is this a casino "Oh well I just went all in let's see what happens yolo".
Trail your stop, at least bare min
You're at 99% of your target, you're actually going to risk everything for that last little percent?
Even if you don't care about missing out on additional gains, I do not get it. Why?
At least move your stop 1/3 towards target when the price goes past 2/3.
Myself I prefer to have something more evolved, where based on experience and backtested data I know approximately how much it should retrace and how much is 1- too much loss of my gains I am not willing to give away, 2- high probability or sideways or reversal.
Log your last operation (in excel)
Note everything you buy & sell in excel (or you can use something else I don't care I am a libertarian do what you want, except jump in with no plan, I am a german dictator for this, you are not allowed to do this).
This will be very useful. Going to share my own "method", I now have an excel with 3 tabs (alot more with all kinds of stuff in, but let's focus on the 3). 1 Tabs is for "Trends" and I have 8 columns: Date, Ticker, Thing, useless, useless, R, Result (Win Lose Breakeven), Comment. So actually it is 6 not 8. I used to have over a dozen tabs but I gave up, they're not that useful and they're a pain to maintain. In "Thing" I write the "strategy" I used, for the tab "trends" I got 4 choices: Pullback, Pump (actually it's pullback in a pump), FOMO, Downtrend/UptrendFeeling (when I just go in without a clean rule because I want to). Pullback and Pump are the main ones.
So ye, pretty simple. And the specific relevant details I want to note, I note them in Comment. Such as "got stopped at the top and then missed 25R" 😃.
Well in that case it might cause some depression so I'm not sure this is the best idea, but you do not want that happening consistently.
Important: Log the ones you did not take because you were a terrified little coward, and ended up going like a rocket in your direction. Thank me later.
Analyse your past trades
You'd better spend time looking at your past trades. I like to screenshot mine, I got a 25 GB HDD allocated to that. I already used up 10 GB but I also have some backtesting ones.
Check your average R, winrate, look at comments (maybe put the most important ones in red).
You can also on top of this use a broker service some provide analysis data, and also MOAR you can use tradingview where you posted ideas (public or pvt) and see what your thoughts were, and more.
If you took some screenshots with your thoughts at the time, go look at this and wonder what was in your mind to take such a stupid trade amirite?
Do stats on your operations & backtest to confirm
1 step further: After checking your history, and getting an idea of what you were great at and sucked up.
There are 2 reasons you might be good or bad at something: You actually being good or bad at it, and secondly luck.
You want to go backtest dozens of cases to check "ok is this typically good or bad", "wow this pattern sure appears often in this situation".
And then go even further, as we like to say in France "above it is the sun", you are such a natural born speculator that you take all of your worse trades, and go "ok then, I will do the exact opposite".
Revenge trading and fomoing has done so much for me. It made me immensly more profitable (because of so much more opportuinites).
I could not believe my eyes at how often I won and how much R I got through revenge trading and fomoing...
I did it intelligently thought, not a recommendation to go double down on a lousy trade and risk 10% at once.
By revenge trading I hear "taking the opposite side with reasonable size after getting stopped twice". "While cursing".
Combat your addiction to stats
Ye at that point you'll always need validation from the charts & the stats. Feel down? Go make yourself feel good with some stats. Feel good? Go get a high by looking at some good stats. Worried a trade might not work out? Go spend a few hours on stats to reassure yourself.
It can get pretty bad. It can take over. You sometimes might run home in a hurry to get your chart fix. At your job or someone house you will break at the urge and just jump on your phone "just to check that pattern a little bit". Oh wow I just realized I'm not even really joking.
Well at least it is a useful addiction, and you do need to have the most information as possible. But know that you cannot know everything, and if you get paralysis from not being 100% sure then... I guess you are a coward and better quit :D
Mental health is important, as well as being a winner and wanting to do MOAR WHATEVER IT TAKES TO WIN.
This ain't a wagecucking 9 to 5 sit on your *** job. It is one of the most competitive activities in the world and you have to WANT to be the best, to be the best.
You don't even care about the money, you just want to crush the competition and you are unhealthy-ly obssessed with it.
But just as with lifting, sports at pro level, esports (lol), you do not want to suffer overtraining, burnout (lol what is burnout? Sounds like a loser word), or emm going completely bananas (too late for me :/).
With speculative investing, every day is chart day. And news day. And monetary day. And economic lesson day. And...
How about rest days? Yes it is important to know when to rest. Know when you'll get plenty of refreshing rest? WHEN YOU DIE.
Oh well this paragraph did not turn out how I intended it to.
Improve your strats rr or build a new one even
In my opinion the easiest best way to improve performance is to improve the risk to reward.
Prices bounce on levels a certain % of the time. You cannot change that. You cannot make the trend go further more often.
But you can learn what the best areas are, allowing you to slightly improve your stop and enormously your payout.
Imagine you have a 0.25% SL, 1% tgt, and you notice the price always goes a little against you and not a single winner gets very close to your stop. You enter slightly later and have a slightly tighter stop, without being over greedy. SL is now 0.20%. You went from a RR of 4 to 5 with the same WR, this is huge! say with your wr you had an average payout per trade of 1.5 (winners*wr - losers*lr), now it is increased to 2.5! you are 2/3 more profitable. It is not that hard and you increase your profit by so much.
Do not be worried to give up a bit of winrate if it tremendously will increase your payout.
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Emm bonus or something
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Constantly accumulate knowledge
Every single day. In permanence. The more you know the better you'll be. Not to mistake with being drowned in information.
Heard of MOBAS? Over 100 playable character with several different abilities. You cannot know them all at first, but the big nerds that play 10 hours a day end up knowing not only all the abilities, but they also know what all abilities do under other abilities, their effects, the time they take, their mana cost, how the abilities work with different items & builds (these games have magic and physical damage which are different for example, as well as true damage, also magic and armor pen), the interaction with other champions and abilities. It quickly gets overwhelming, there is a huge amount of info, and that's just for 1 video game. If you know LOL you'll have to learn DOTA from scratch, it will go faster that if you were a complete noob, alot of things are similar, but you will have to relearn everything.
NOW IMAGINE THE MARKETS THAT ARE SEVERAL ORDERS OF MAGNITUDE MORE COMPLEX WITH MILLIONS OF PARTICIPANTS AND THE WHOLE WORLD INVOLVED MONETARY POLICIES GEOPOLITICS VARIOUS OPINIONS AND AGENDAS AND THE DOZENS OF MARKETS THE THOUSANDS OF STOCKS AND BONDS ALL HAVE SPECIAL INTERACTIONS AND INFLUENCE EACH OTHER AND IF YOU WANT TO HAVE DECENT OPPORTUNITIES YOU NEED A WATCHLIST OF MAYBE AT LEAST 10 GAMES (TICKERS) HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA 💥.
You don't have to be smart to do well they say, oh yes of course, memorising and understanding the thousands of patterns, the billions of interactions, the billions of trillions of variables, and DYNAMIC probabilities in a highly complex highly abstract activity with non stop conflicting info, dogmas every one believe in that go against the truth, disinformation, competing with the best in the world, does not require any intelligence at all, sure, makes a lot of sense.
Intelligence is far from being sufficient, yes this is very true. It does not mean it is not sufficient lol imagine not being able to tell the difference between necessary and sufficient conditions and trying to give advice to people we found out why these guys sell hopium courses to new traders 🤣
Work on psychological failures
Anger is a sign of weakness. Regret is a sign of weakness. Fear is a sign of weakness. And the weak shall fear the strong.
Obstacles are designed to make you stronger, only the weak avoid them. And the gods have no obstacles.
Jesse Livermore said: "If you cannot sleep because of your stock market position (you are weak), then you have gone too far. Reduce your positions to the sleeping level."
Man is oftentimes weak-minded enough to be caught in the snare of greed and heneyed words.
Listen to Gandhi, best warrior in India (am I allowed to say this was his caste or is it unwoke? xd), he won a war without fighting. Don't get greedy & keep a rational mind as opposed to trading throught feeling because someone said "the price will collapse" and it scared you.
Giving up is not a sign of weakness but a sign of strength.
To know that you can't win a particular battle is wisdom.
=> Very important. Are you a genius like Napoleon that retreated from Russia, or an idiot politician that thinks he knows warfare like Hitler that insisted and led to millions of dead and lost WW2?
Do not short Tesla you cannot win (well actually now shorts got wiped out maybe it is possible but I'd wait for a downtrend).
Cut your losses what is the point of holding bags? Swag?
Don't try to defeat the market and don't get married to any commodity or idea.
Fail, lose money, and quit
Hey this can happen too. How many is it? 90%?
Day traders are overrepresented here.
According to fxcm data traders that had a reward equal or greater than 1 times their risk were making money at 53% (over 1 year in 2014-2015), versus traders with a RR under 1 (but why? xd) of which only 17% were profitable.
The people that made most money were those the less leverages, while big size "get rich quick" clowns got absolutely wiped out.
They do not show data for day traders versus long term ones, they're a broker they make money off commissions so they won't show this UNLESS it shows day traders making more, so you just know they're the ones getting decimated the most and the longer term ones are the ones cleaning house. It is a certainty.
I've looked at plenty other data and you had such numbers, with over 1 year 83% people losing money, 88% over 2 years, 94% over 5 years, and so on (it tops logarithmically of course).
People smart enough to trade with high (but not greedy huge) reward to risk, and on higher timeframes, are the ones doing best.
So it's not all that bad, if you put in the hours and have a working brain (intelligence is important I said but you don't need to be an absolute genius to just be in the green).
It's clearly possible.
Making money does not mean making millions!
It does not even mean outperforming the SnP.
It does not even mean outperforming inflation.
Few people outperform the SnP.
Alot manage to make some money but not enough for it to be a viable business.
But even if people end up quitting they did not waste their time, they learned a valuable lesson: Do not try to stand up to MrRenev.
Nah I'm just messing around.
Even if one does not outperform the SnP, he can use what he learned to:
- Continue trading short term for diversification & to reduce portfolio volatility
- Not miss out on generational moves (USO, Oil contango, Gold, Bitcoin...)
- Use knowledge to manage risk or whatever
- Use a fraction of their net worth to speculate with large size (but not casino large) to have more volatility and more returns
- And plenty more... consolation prizes
What is Gold? Why Gold is deflationary and grow up in the time!!In this technical analysis, I'm enfocous in Gold.
It's simple. Gold is money, when in the pass Gold was used as money to keep in our hand to negotiate the object's value. But in the humanity history, the bankers are smart to create the paper money, now this paper money is called US Dollar, Euro, Sterling Pound, Australina Dollar. etc.... No matter what currency you have, because it's have risk to save your money in the bank.
So, guys, this analysis is for you if you want to invest in Gold. The problem of the situation is that people are poors because the bankers created money of any, it's mean that central banks print more money to pass hand to hand on the governmet and they have a national debt that the country need to pay, but it's not payable becuase while more money have in the circulation, the currency value is devaluated through the time, and then create risk for employers, bussiness and society, that they doesn't understand it and created poors in the society.
It's simple, Gold = Money and Money = Debt, while more money have, more debt have the world and we need to out to work to pay this national debt to been slave.
So, guys, for me it's important to know these concept, also if you're new here, I invited you to follow me for tradings, investments and more.
I add important links to see it my other analysis related.
I see a Gold in 10 years near of $8,000 USD
GOLD - Using price patterns to time reversals of trends.With the market watching out for Gold to hit the $2000 level, once this occurred and broke higher you have to always be cautious and take a step back before jumping into any longer term trend continuation plays.
When new record highs or lows get established in any market that is highly liquid, its good to keep your options open and try and look at the market with also a contrarian point of view as well.
To many new and novice traders will just expect prices to keep climbing and jump into the move with no account for strategy, analysis or more importantly a study of price.
Looking at Gold, we wanted to keep an open mind and read the price action especially when your looking for counter trend moves as this will lower the probability of a trade but when you are patient and follow the structure of price you can get some good nuggets of information that can really help you time your trade.
As you can see on the 1 Hour chart, price was moving up nicely until it formed a bearish 3 drive pattern in the process. This pattern can be a good indicator of price exhaustion especially when you can see these being formed on no less then a 1 Hour time frame.
Once we saw the pattern complete, that alone is not enough, we need to be patient and find a lower trend line, preferably with multiple hits registered on the line for if this breaks to the down side as well, this not only gives us good reason to enter the trade short but it allows for greater timing and accuracy of the trade.
We would look to place our stop just above the 3rd and final drive high to start with, as we are trading the pattern so there is no need to place it very far away.
What is Intvesting, how to? How to invest in gold?Interesting era. Everyone is just jumping into investing.
With brokers advertising how easy it is "just send a couple hundreds and get started right away", day trading instructors, central banks & regulators doing everything in their power so absentee afk passive investors that just randomly throw money at broad indexes do not lose money.
Anything but that!
Well that's not how it is supposed to be and the US are now experiencing a communist uprising so well done here.
The world is moving towards a new world order and the infinite free money bubble will end. Lazy bums born into wealth are going down.
Nothing is priced correctly, the rich get richer just because of how the system is built, and it is worse in the usa where they print money for the rich and export some of the inflation, of course all these blm & antifa clowns are too stupid to figure that one out but this is the reason why they are so angry.
Investors are supposed to add value and make their money via superior intuition and knowledge, they use their above average foresight and understanding of whatever they trade to allocate capital correctly.
The only day traders that make money are those that access to level 2 market data and what they do is front run participants, this does not make as much money.
I irritates me seing clueless people talk about FX & Futures day trading. This is not stocks. The markets are not open 8 hours a day what's wrong with you?
So there are 2 types (not counting all the ones that lose money):
-> Day traders that are like little aphids living on plants, tiny little parasites that cannot make lots of money
-> Passive investors that pat themselves on the back for buying random indexes or property, they're like big gross worm parasites that live in intestines
These passive investors are like renters of the 19th century that got very wealthy doing nothing, and gave Karl Marx & Engels their wonderful ideas.
So. The paradigm is changing, new world order, great reset, everything. Unlike anything we experienced in our lifetimes.
People should start getting used to NOT making money doing nothing, this paradigm is over. If crooked politicians try bailing out the banks with taxpayers money they'll get decapitated. It is possible the angry mobs even manage to figure out they do it indirectly, but even if they don't the party is over anyway it will all collapse like Zimbabwe.
George Soros which is one of the earliest macro/forex traders and the best performing one to this day, said that investors and speculators were the same, investors make money by finding cheap businesses or fair priced, that they believe will do well in the future, and if they are right they make a return for correctly speculating.
There is no "long term" trick. "Historically always go up". No. These people will learn a harsh lesson. Trying to find tricks to be lazy and cheat their way into wealth pssst.
Sure if you sacrifice your money today, place it somewhere rather than enjoy it, you should get something in return, but not 13% compounded a year.
I'm not going to make a whole investing guide nor a general introduction here, but let's look at the case of gold: what are the different approaches?
1- Wealth preservation
2- "Investing" long term speculation looking for 3k, 5k, or more
3- Trying to catch short term rallies inside of the bull market
This is what I do. Very short term I would say even. 2 weeks ago I even had several operations with gold where I stayed in only a few hours, I remember one of them I entered during the late afternoon and got out at 3 am.
"Why only take small bits if you see a big bull market rather than try to get all of it"
Idk I'm impatient. And more importantly I'm good at it, and some of these crazy moves are just so unidirectional you get both a high probability of success AND big risk to reward ratios.
I'm still (bag)holding my first speculative trade, you'll never guess what it is xd
4- Get rich quick
==> Either a delusional gambler or the greatest investor of all time
Enjoy losing everything
Ok that's enough. Either way, one should do their research (this means more than 30 minutes of watching youtube) and have a plan.
Silver is greatly outperforming gold now, I love it
Just so much stronger! I called it in my 07 August update in the idea below ("I would buy some silver on the pullback. Expecting gold to slow down and silver to go fast now.")
This is why I am very active and operate on short time frames. I'm rather bullish on metals compared to fiat in the long term but I am not going to predict targets, or which metal will go up most in the next years, but I will predict what will happen in the next days with good accuracy. And I'm too impatient with a atrophied attention span to look at years anyway. I have my big doubts on accurate long term prediction, with all the chaos that adds up over time.
🦶 If you want to be successful and rich-start with the book! 💰 "The richest man in Babylon" is one of my favorite and best books on Finance that I have ever read!
👉 First, it is simple and small. Stories from it can even be told to children in the form of fairy tales, and you can read the book for a couple of hours.
👉 Secondly, it is wise and practical. Everything is clear and simple-if you want to be rich, start with the first step and follow the advice from the book.
👉 third, it helped me personally and my environment. I can't remember many books that have influenced me and my way of thinking so much!
🌞 Briefly about the book itself.
It helps us explore aspects of personal success for each of us. Recipes for escape from poverty and lack of money can become the basis for understanding financial laws. Like the laws of nature, the laws of money have been around for a long time. And if your goal is to accumulate money, then the author, Samuel George Clayson, is ready to offer to penetrate the mystery of money in order to accumulate capital, save it and make it work for profit. The pages of the book will take you to Ancient Babylon — the cradle of basic financial laws that remain relevant to this day.
Author George Clayson was born in 1874. He was always concerned about the financial literacy of the population, so in 1926 he published a series of pamphlets written in the style of Babylonian parables. These pamphlets were distributed to banks and insurance companies, and then combined into the book "the richest man in Babylon", which was published in the same year. To date, more than 2 million copies have been sold worldwide.
✍ This is briefly about the history of books and what they teach.
1) the history of the arcade and its wealth mentor Aglamis. Wisdom - part of the money in the first place belongs to you.
2) King Sargon, and a request to teach Arkada residents the laws of money. Wisdom-start making simple rules of wealth, there are only 7 of them.
3) Temple of Knowledge and history arcade about luck and luck. Wisdom-luck favors people of business.
4) the Story of Nomazir, son of Arkad, 5 laws of wealth. Wisdom - your goals and desires have a powerful force, combine this energy with knowledge of the 5 laws of wealth - and huge treasures will become yours.
5) Rodan, 10 gold coins and the wisdom of the usurer Maton. Wisdom - a little caution is better than a big disappointment.
6) Banzar and the walls of great Babylon. Wisdom - without protection, we can't afford to stay.
7) a Cautionary tale of Dabazir's slavery for Tharkad. Wisdom - if you have determination, you will always achieve the goal.
The clay tablets in the book contain the records of dabazir, in which He shares his notes, such as 5 pieces published in the book. They contain many interesting wise tips on how to pay off your debts.
8) Sharru Nada, a merchant from Babylon, and a grandson of Arad Gula named hadan Gula. Wisdom-love to work and do your job with your soul.
💎 Briefly about the laws of wealth from the book:
Law 1. Start filling your wallet.
Save at least a tithe of your income. If you can save more, it's great. You may say that you are already poor, but you will be surprised that saving this 10% will not affect your standard of living in any way.
Law 2. Track your expenses.
The more you earn, the more you want to spend. But don't confuse immediate expenses with whims. Make a budget and write down a list of necessary expenses. When you have a desire to spend, think about whether this desire really needs to be quenched. And in no case do not spend more than 90% of your earnings. "Save more next month" is a road to nowhere.
Law 3. Multiply your fortune.
Money should not be a dead weight in your wallet. Wealth is not an accumulated fortune, but an income that is constantly growing. Put money at least on Deposit.
Law 4. Protect your fortune so that you don't lose it.
When you invest money, the principal amount should not be affected. Avoid too risky trades and promises of quick earnings. Be sure to consult with experts and think of ways to leave the "sinking ship".
Law 5. Housing can be a profitable investment.
The rental fee is sometimes the same as the loan payment for it. With the only difference that in 10 years you will not own the housing. And although Klayson did not live in modern Ukraine with constant financial crises, dreams of their own homes still warm the soul of most people.
The law 6. Provide income for the future.
Once there were no pensions at all, but now they do not guarantee a comfortable old age. Think about yourself and your family in advance, what will happen to you in 10, 20, 30 years. Insurance and deposits in land and real estate will be useful here.
The law 7. Learn to earn more.
Develop your abilities, learn new skills, and gain wisdom. Look for new markets, ask for advice, and invest in your training.
Advice if you are in debt.
If you not only live in zero, but also owe other people, in this case, too, there is a Babylonian story. On behalf of Dabasir, the camel trader, Clayson offers the following solution to the problem: first, make a list of all who you owe money to and exactly what amount. Divide your income into ten equal parts, spend seven out of ten on urgent needs and small joys, so that you can still enjoy life, and not sink into depression. Distribute another 20% monthly to pay off the debt. And tithe, as in rule # 1, save to increase your income later.
🧲The same Board with the "Golden rules" of attracting money:
1) Gold is drawn to those who save a tenth of their earnings, ensuring the future of themselves and their family.
2) Gold works in full force for the wise owner, who puts it profitably into the business.
3) Gold needs protection, and therefore prefers caution and advice from wise people.
4) Gold does not like to be forced to work in a field where a person is not knowledgeable.
5) Gold eludes those who invest it in adventurous or ill-conceived projects, embodying romantic dreams of wealth.
Be sure to read this book. You won't regret it!
PS: in 2010, when I first read this book, I was so impressed with its wisdom and prostate that I decided to buy 10 copies and give them to my friends and family. And what was my surprise when 10 years later I saw that their life had not only not changed, but also became harder and poorer! Now, if someone tells me that they want money or to be rich, I offer them the first step - to save for themselves for 45 days, first of all, 100 rubles! It's so easy! And when a person doesn't respond to me after 45 days, or says that they didn't learn from it, or comes up with any excuses why they didn't do it, I understand the power of the action and what they really want.
💸 I wish you health, wisdom, wealth and prosperity!
Question to those who have read this book. And what would you choose-a bag of gold (ten million rubles) or a clay tablet with wise and proven laws of money (the book "the richest man in Babylon")?
Fast Market Moves And FOMO - Don't Get TrappedWhen the market moves strongly in a direction, you might feel the need to jump in and chase the trade because of the Fear Of Missing Out (FOMO).
Don't do that.
In fact, if you spend some time looking at the charts, you will find that often with such sharp fast market moves, the potential for a trade in the same direction as the fast move is over by the time people start reacting out of fear of missing out. This is when trades get squeezed and people lose money fast.
When you listen to experienced traders talk about such fast moves, you will often hear comments like "Wow, XYZ has rocketed up, but it's too late to enter now, I'll rather wait for a good pull back and see if there is an opportunity to enter later". You might actually hear them say that the move has gone too far from the moving average (maybe the 9 EMA or even 20 EMA) and that it's more likely that it will cause a "rubber band" effect with the price action moving back closer to the average.
The market may continue to rocket up or down, but let it go, don't chase that move, wait for your turn to get a good entry spot.
This is true no matter what you trade, Forex, Crypto, Stocks or Commodities, they all exhibit this tendency to recover (often quickly) when the price has suddenly moved too far from the average price. New traders are often caught off-guard by this, and tend to jump into the trade exactly when others are exiting their positions, so don't give in to FOMO. The market will give you many trading opportunities during the day, be patient and don't trade out of fear or greed.
Golden Opportunities- lessons from the last two yearsIt all started with gold prices falling in 2018, and after a while, I started looking for potential opportunities in Gold. What followed was a long time friend by the same namesake suddenly popped up to ask for my opinion specifically about gold... and this was two years ago today, short of a few days, in mid-August 2018 (see chart by zooming out).
Since then, the gray arrows mark the theoretical ideal entry points and the white arrows are my real entry points. You can see a particular pattern here, which I spoke of previously, where it is more favorable a time for entry based on a set of rules that includes technicals and patterns, providing a higher probability of a good profit, be it for a trade, investment, or longer term holding.
Coming back to the last two weeks, I have had many people asking about gold, and my opinion about it, etc. many are ready to enter the gold market. You see, most of it was sparked off by the recent gold rush (as is always), and I noticed that often, there is a lack of rules from the beginning, for entry nor for exit.
So herein is a visual set of rules I have for entry in gold which were tested over the last two years...
1. Price must break above a down sloping trend line; and
2. MACD must cross the zero line; and
3. Price must be higher than the recent highs (of the last 11/13/21, whichever is preferred)
These rules work very well, particularly when two conditions are met:
1. Weekly chart is favorable in trend (this case, trending up); and
2. There is a strong fundamental reason (this case is very robust for Gold to be in favour)
So there you go... I hope everyone can see that to buy gold at the current time (or In recent weeks) is probably not as favorable as you would like it to be, notwithstanding that Gold may advance higher at some point, anyways. In fact, it is projected that gold should be topping out around 2100, next week perhaps (reference the white line).