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Commodities

USOIL: #stayhome effect Oil prices have dropped more than 50% in March (yearly performance is around-62,1%). Is it the end or are we going to see more downside movement? Let's assume this is another opportunity for joining bears, based on technical analysis (thoughts) you can see on the chart. How much lower can the price go? Can it reach the lows of 1999? My answer is: why not? Most of developed countries are on quarantine #stayhome and the supply wasn't cut by OPEC. The major US indices, including DJI, S&P500 and Nasdaq, have fallen in the following order: 35%, 30% and 25%. While different sectors and industries in the US have the following yearly performance so far: 1. Energy minerals sector (931,2B MKT CAP): -58,04%, out of which e.g.: -Coal Industry: -69,17% -Oil & Gas production Industry: -62,67% -Integrated oil Industry: -57,05% -Oil Refining/Marketing: - 55,7% 2. Industrial Services Sector (515,96B MKT CAP): -36,09%, out of which e.g.: -Oilfield Services/Equipment Industry: -60,01% -Oil&Gas Pipelines Industry: -42,93% 3. Process Industries Sector (681,34B MKT CAP):-27,36%, out of which e.g.: -Pulp&Paper Industry: -50,05% -Chemicals: Major Diversified Industry: -49,87% -Agricultural Commodities/Milling: -41,45% 4. Non-Energy Minerals Sector (476,43B MKT CAP): -25,73%, out of which e.g.: -Steel Industry: -48,32% -Other Metals/Minerals: -40,16% -Aluminium: -39,87% 5. Transportation sector (569,48B MKT CAP): -23,84%, out of which e.g.: -Airlines industy: -49,2% 6. Finance sector (6038,64B MKT CAP): -23,12%, out of which e.g.: -Life/Health Insurance Industry: -37,69% -Real Estate Development Industry: -37,64% -Financial Conglomerates Industry: -34,83% -Major Banks Industry: -31,13% 7. Consumer Services sector (1481,09B MKT CAP): -21,53%, out of which e.g.: -Hotels/Resorts/Cruise Lines Industry: -43,78% -Casinos/Gaming Industry: -34,22% 8. Producer Manufacturing sector (1030,45B MKT CAP): -21,02%, out of which e.g.: -Auto Parts: OEM Industry: -34.64% -Metal Fabrication Industry: -33,09% -Industrial Conglomerates Industry: -31,72% It's quite interesting when and how these industries will be able to recover, but I am quite sure it's a great opportunity to start analyzing particular companies and building portfolio with these businesses. This is going to be my next step... // I would very much appreciate if you would support my work by hitting like.) Feel free to share your opinion/position via comment and follow me to stay updated.
FX:USOILEducation
by GIgor_021
review3.17.20 GOLD SILVER DXY COPPER ENPH OIL: I think it's important to know why the dollars going higher, and gold is going higher. when markets have very large corrections lower this forces commercial funds and other traders to sell the good and the bad to meet margin requirements. In 2007 or eight when the market took a nosedive gold went lower and the dollar went lower. The reason for this is that large funds will sell their goal position, and countries will sell their gold position to meet margin requirements or other requirements that are transacted in the dollar. So you may want to buy gold when the markets correcting from a high in the markets moving catastrophically lower, but you may be perplexed why the gold is going lower when everything appears to be so unstable. I misstated the description that you could hear from the fund manager of Brent Johnson of Santiago fund. if oil is in a bear flag and makes a new low, I would be looking for a buying tail to get long. I think silver will reverse and go higher and that this is a capitulation move even though it has not impressively moved off the recent bottom. I believe the price of silver is near or below the production cost for many of the silver mines, it is ridiculously low, and gold retested at 382 and bounced off of that and looks like it might be heading higher to me. When in doubt, stay out... but you can follow the market anyway. Copper traded the pattern beautifully and came to the support; I think of Copper is one of those markets you don't have to trade frequently which means you don't have to spend all day looking at it. I think ENPH is going to move higher from here.
TVC:GOLDEducation
by ScottBogatin
4H stochastic analysis + full 5 wave count of Elliott WaveI made this chart to show the example of using stochastic to help determine the wave Of Course, this is not perfect... 1. need to use fib 2. trend line needed (black arrow) 3. the knowledge of high volatility , when fib exceed 168% 4. the case when gold retrace too small (like 0.27 retracement instead of 0.382) 5. when the fractal (small time frame movement really weird and does not add up) 6. THATS WHY MINIMUM 1 H TIME FRAME NEEDED 7. DON'T USE THIS TECHNIQUE ON 5 minutes and 15 minutes time frame, gold like to SL hunt at those timeframe
TVC:GOLDEducation
by salvanost