Commodities
XAUUSD ANALYSISI think XAUUSD is about to make a move soon as the price is moving in a tighter and tighter range. Given the fundamentals and the current trend of gold I expect gold to make a move upwards but I will wait and see how the price reacts.
Also I am trying the Heikin Ashi charting technique.
WHAT TOPICS WOULD YOU LIKE ME TO COVER?Hi Guys - all my followers and non followers..
I am getting back to releasing weekly episode/episodes of the ' Art of trading Psychology' in the aim of helping traders get in the 'zone' when trading. Mastering trading psychology is by far one of the hardest aspects in trading yet it is also the one that will drive you to you success as a trader if mastered.
I would truly love to cater this podcast to you guys and in order to do so, i need to understand what it is you're struggling with and what you would like to cover i.e
- finding taking profit hard?
- being consistent
- scared to take a trade or uneasy when you're in a trade?
- Losing too much?
Anything you think of, drop it in the comments below or message me!!
PETER SCHIFF VS JEFF SNIDER!THIS POST WILL HELP YOU UNDERSTAND THE COMPETING VIEW POINTS ON THE FUTURE PERFORMANCE OF THE U.S. DOLLAR RELATIVE TO OTHER CURRENCIES!
JEFF SNIDER'S POSITION ON THE DOLLAR:
THE U.S. DOLLAR IS STRONG BECAUSE OF A SHORTAGE OF DOLLARS WORLDWIDE TO CONDUCT GLOBAL TRADE IN, DUE TO TO FED'S INABILITY TO TRULY SATISFY DEMAND FOR U$Ds, AND WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AS LONG AS FOREIGN CURRENCIES ARE SOLD TO BUY U$Ds.
PETER SCHIFF'S POSITION ON THE DOLLAR:
THE U.S. DOLLAR IS STRONG BECAUSE OF AN IRRATIONAL FAITH IN THE U.S. ECONOMY BY FOREIGNERS AND THE WILLINGNESS OF PRODUCTIVE ECONOMIES WORLDWIDE TO USE AND ACCEPT PRINTED U.S. DOLLARS IN GLOBAL TRADE, SUBSIDIZING THE CONSUMPTION AND TRADE DEFICIT OF THE U.S.
JEFF SNIDER'S POSITION ON U.S. TREASURIES:
THE U.S. GOVERNMENT BOND MARKET HAS BEEN BID HIGHER FOR DECADES AS U.S. TREASURIES PROVIDE THE SAFEST SOURCE OF U$Ds AND ARE THE MOST ACCEPTED FORM OF COLLATERAL FOR U$D LEVERAGE. IF U$D LIQUIDITY BECOMES CONSTRAINED ENOUGH WORLDWIDE, A SELL-OFF IN THE GLOBAL U.S. TREASURY MARKET CAN OCCUR AS AS THEY ARE SOLD FOR THE IMMEDIATELY NEEDED U$Ds, RAISING INTEREST RATES THROUGHOUT THE FINANCIAL SYSTEM AND THE ECONOMY.
PETER SCHFF'S POSITION ON U.S. TREASURIES:
THE FEDERAL RESERVE'S ARTIFICIAL SUPPRESSION OF INTEREST RATES SINCE THE 1990's THROUGH QE, COUPLED WITH THE USE OF U$Ds IN GLOBAL TRADE AND THE IRRATIONAL FAITH BY FOREIGNERS THAT THE FEDERAL RESERVE COULD SHRINK ITS BALANCE SHEET AND NORMALIZE INTEREST RATES HAS LED TO FOREIGN CAPITAL BIDDING UP THE PRICE OF U.S. GOVERNMENT BONDS. ONCE THAT FAITH IN THE DOLLAR'S SCARCITY IS DIMINISHED AND PRODUCTIVE ECONOMIES WORLDWIDE REFUSE TO HOLD/ACCEPT U$Ds AND SUBSIDIZE AMERICAN CONSUMPTION, U.S. TREASURIES WILL BE SOLD-OFF, RAISING INTEREST RATES THROUGHOUT THE FINANCIAL SYSTEM AND THE ECONOMY.
JEFF SNIDER'S VIEW ON THE FUTURE OF THE DOLLAR:
AS LONG AS THE FEDERAL RESERVE FAILS TO ADDRESS THE COMPLEX NEED FOR U$Ds AND AS LONG AS THE U$D REMAINS THE WORLD RESERVE CURRENCY, DEMAND WILL OUTPACE SUPPLY, AND THE U$D WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AGAINST OTHER CURRENCIES UNTIL A CULMINATION OF DEFAULTS AND RESTRUCTURING RAVAGES THE COUNTRIES WITH THE MOST SEVERE LACK OF U$Ds, SENDING THE U$D SKY HIGH, LEADING TO AN ABANDONMENT OF THE U$D AS WORLD RESERVE CURRENCY.
PETER SCHIFF'S VIEW ON THE FUTURE OF THE DOLLAR:
ONCE PRODUCTIVE COUNTRIES WORLDWIDE BECOME DISILLUSIONED WITH THE AMOUNT OF EASILY CREATED U$Ds CHASING PRICES, THE APPETITE TO ACCEPT THOSE U$Ds IN EXCHANGE FOR GOODS/SERVICES AT CURRENT PRICES WILL DIMINISH, ALONG WITH THE DESIRE TO HOLD U$Ds, U.S. ASSETS AND U.S. TREASURIES. ONCE U$Ds AND U$Ds OBTAINED THROUGH THE SALE OF U.S. ASSETS AND U.S. TREASURIES ARE SOLD FOR OTHER CURRENCIES, THE U$D WILL WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY, FURTHER INCREASING THE PRICES OF IMPORTED GOODS/SERVICES, SENDING THE U$D INTO AN INFLATIONARY SPIRAL, MARKING ITS END AS THE WORLD RESERVE CURRENCY. IN THIS CASE, IF THE FEDERAL RESERVE MONETIZED THE SOLD U.S. TREASURIES TO PREVENT INTEREST RATES FROM RISING, THIS COULD EASILY LEAD TO HYPERINFLATION.
-IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT THE 0% YIELD ON U.S. 10 YEAR GOVERNMENT BOND IS A DANGER ZONE IN EITHER CASE, AS FOREIGN ENTITIES WILL NO LONGER HAVE AN INCENTIVE TO HOLD U.S. TREASURIES, PREFERRING CASH, GOLD OR OTHER ASSETS OVER A NEGATIVE YIELDING BOND.
-THE NOTES ON THE CHART OFFER CONTRIBUTING FACTORS AS TO WHY YIELDS BOTTOMED OR PEAKED AT VARIOUS POINTS DURING THIS BOND BULL MARKET.
Zinc Mcx Short at 154.5 with SL 157.3We are doing Analysis of ZINC MCX on 1 Hour Timeframe.
The projected target from the breakout is usually the vertical distance from the high to the bottom .
Note: This is only for Educational Purpose this is not an Investment advice.
Please support the setup with your likes, comments and by following on Trading View.
Thankyou
Ankur Verma
Twitter : Ankurverma3838
SILVER (XAGUSD) Key Levels
a lot of questions about silver!
currently, I don't have any active positions.
I have alerts placed on key levels, I will look at the reaction of the market to the underlined levels on the lower timeframe.
here are the key levels:
16.7 is our current strong support
17.55 is our current resistance (due to a strong bullish rally it can just easily be broken, so don't jump in aggressively)
18.55 is resistance 2
19.55 is resistance 3
trade key levels only with a confirmation.
let me know if you want to see more structure analysis!
Update - My post April 2, 2020, "Bitcoin & Big Oil" Update - My post April 2, 2020, "Bitcoin & Big Oil" . First point of interest - Using MACD of USOIL (WTI) point before precipitous decline. See what happened when bitcoin closed month end above $365 NOV 2015 and thereafter. Notice in each case c.55% drop before rise. Bitcoin has yet to close out month above $9084.7. Second point of interest - Monthly Dollar Index if close below 98.82 (Mid point of volatility Mar 2020) see what happened to SPX when closed below 95.48 (Mid point of volatility Aug 2015) March 2016. NOT ADVICE. DYOR.
GOLD (XAUUSD) Key HISTORICAL Level AHEAD!
hey guys,
bullish rally continues on gold.
the next goal for buyers is 1775 - 1802 resistance area.
it is a historical structure zone based on 2012's market highs and 2011's key resistance.
be prepared for a pullback based on the underlined structure.
also, remember that if you missed this bullish movement,
it is too risky and too late to jump in.
be patient and wait for a pullback for a safe entry.
good luck!
High time frame review and how to use the Strategy TesterHi All
Here we demonstrate the effectiveness again of the H4 timeframe - and also the Daily TF.
We also explain the 'Strategy Tester' Function - something that we are now working on for V3 based on ATR settings for SL and TP targets.
Regards
Darren
Forex Weekly Forecast 18th-22nd May 2020 (FX Pairs and Gold)Welcome to Profitlio Trading!
What's up traders! Thanks for Jumping back on my Analysis, Traderchamp is here on your Service, Also hit thumbs up and support the work.
Take a look on my Weekly Forecast and How I planned my added watchlist for the week ahead! Feel free to drop in your comments right down below and share this with your friends! But still Sketch up your own trade setup before you take off. Good Luck!
Profitlio Trading ( Since 2014 in Financial Markets )
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Traders Disclaimer: Non of our analysis or trade setups being shared here on tradingview is a trading advice. As we keep on weekly updates with our predictions and expectations. We may take them as a trade only if trade setup meets the required criteria ( Confirmations ). Unless we will never take them as a trade if it never reach our trading requirements.
Take them at your own risk as trading is highly risky and you may loss your investments. Our trades are based on Swinging and Mid to long term approaches. All trades executed will be handled under the name of Profitlio Trading only.
Gold Silver5.15.20 Gold Silver this is not just about gold and silver, it is about your priorities as a traitor, and whether you are predominantly a pattern traitor or a price action traitor. You can be a little bit of both, but you still need to know your priorities for making an actual trade decision. When I do these videos I know that I seen to be talking all over the place, and part of the reason for this is that many traders will be predominantly pattern traders, and other traders will be dominantly price action. My trade entry is triggered by price action... the way I look at price action. Most of my charting shows structure and line patterns, and then I look through that to analyze the price action. It is very important to understand the type of trader you are and recognize that you can have everything... and once you have that understanding and acceptance, it makes trading much easier. I am perfectly fine if a market doesn't meet my criteria even though I believe it's going to move in a certain direction... and yet I don't like that trade because of the price action, or the risk, or the profit potential. The difference with this kind of thinking is that the market is giving mixed signals for my way of thinking... but I'm not confused, I'm simply not convinced that I should risk capital... and that is much different from feeling the pressure to take a trade when there is no clear clarity for me... and then decide whether or not I'm going to make a a decision between an impulse trade for fear of missing opportunity, or making a decision to not trade wondering if I will suffer from remorse because I lacked conviction for reasons that weren't entirely clear for me.
WTI updated map - could be ending diagonal 5 of (C)The wave 4 that I was looking to unfold before could be over long ago as simple flat.
The further seesaw structure that already distracted so many traders from the crude could be an ending diagonal wave 5 of (5) of ((C)).
After it gets finished we could see a drop in 3 waves retracement.
Still think USO is a great way to invest in Oil?An Interactive Broker trader with a $77,000 account thought he would outsmart every institution and every big Oil trader, the result? A $9 million loss.
Well done.
IB normally doesn't take beginners, you need 2 years experience to trade FX with them (haven't checked futures so I don't know what the rule is for those), and the min account size is 10,000.
This day trader (go figure) thought he was smarter than every one, and he went all in, he bet the farm. This alone is stupid, but he went all in without doing his research!
Probably a "technical analyst". Weird, I thought magical esoteric TA told you everything you need to know, that everything was built in the chart and info not in the chart was useless noise. Didn't his magical TA tools tell him it would go negative? Well actually if he looked at the ATR / implied volatility he would have seen....
Even I, that has negative balance protection and guaranteed stops, went on the CME site to check announcements.
They don't exactly talk about negative prices nor clearly about limit up limit down, but here, with Oil massive volatility, they did confirm that yes indeed they were prepared for negative prices.
Thomas Peterffy (the hungarian market billionaire that is not George Soros) said 5 days wasn't enough for IB to update their platform and that's obviously true.
Now maybe they should have warned people with messages on the interface, e-mails, maybe set some hard limit to what their clients can do.
Maybe they should have had code ready at all time in case this happens. Maybe they share the fault, maybe not.
But anyway, being a customer friendly broker, they absorbed losses over 100 million.
Meanwhile I did my research, I shorted June contract and made money, and I'm fighting with my shady broker to withdraw some of my gains...
They have been condemned by the french regulators years ago for shady business practices go figure, but every retail broker has!
And the vast majority of their clients are retail. I'm waiting and waiting and waiting... I have resisted insulting them or calling the regulator for now.
The only other broker to give me a hard time was Kraken. They mention anti laundering laws and more, and I understand, but why be so unclear, and ask for documents 5 times rather than all at once, and why ask for the same documents several time, and why be so difficult, only when someone made money?
Short Bitcoin on Kraken which was clearly very pro bull, short Oil on *** which had a massive number of retail short sellers (they were on the June contract thought), and then it's an issue. Never had a single problem buying Bitcoin and sending it to a wallet, never a problem when losing money, extreme ease to deposit and start paying commissions, without any warning "getting it out will be very hard". "It's quick instant easy" ye sure, no it's not.
The fund running USO clearly said it was a tool for short term bets. It's not made for massive hoardes of dumb money to buy and hold.
They have spread over several months to be more nimble, ye looks like its working great!
I heard reverse splits were a good sign, that it was smart to invest in a stock after it made a reverse split.
Once again, retail that never in their lives made money consistently, thought they knew better than every one else, and that they would get rich quick.
Once again, I warned people with what little visibility I had.
Once again I was right and retail is getting wiped out.
Bagholders are going to argue, they are going to say "just wait", and any spike up will be their celebration and "told you so" "this is it".
Same old story. They'll keep arguing, they'll keep bagholding, they'll keep losing.
Dumb money at its finest: never understand when you lost. You can never tell them "told you so" because in their mind it's always just a matter of time.
When it gets delisted they'll have no choice but to understand they lost, and still then they'll go full lawsuit and dream of getting their money back.
How long for this? 5 years? 10 years? Apple Sapphire screen bagholders as I posted recently have gotten like 4% of their money back on average.
An average smart (average of the ones in the top) investor or speculator in 10 years will be up 15% compounded, so +300% (turn the total into 400%), and dumb bagholders that wanted to get rich quick "15% a year looool that's pathetic" will be spending their time in courts and dreaming of getting 4% back (turn the total into 4%).
Delusion at its finest. There is no free lunch...
If Oil was priced at $0.01 there was a very good reason for it.
Oil traders weren't just selling at this price because "emotions" "rsi very oversold".
It's so risible that some complete noobs that don't understand anything they are doing thought they are just so much smarter than the market, and that whales were just "being emotional" and selling a barrel of Oil at $5, $3, etc just because they were "scaaaaared".
Homer Simpson really thought "Aha! Whales are selling Oil at $1 a barrel but they are scared. I, Homer J Simpson, know something they don't! Oil is worth more. I am a visionary!"
It's like when Homer went hunting for a Turkey, he just put a nice plate down with rice and other food in, then shouted "Come on Turkey come join your friends" and pointed the gun towards the plate with a big smile on his face, fully convinced a Turkey would jump in his plate.
I thought the Simpsons were ridiculous and overly exagerated when I was a kid. How wrong I was.
My broker lets me set an order to short USO. Oh my, I sure know what I'm going to do! 2 possibilities actually.
The Difference Between Stupidity and Genius Is That Genius Has Its Limits.
XAUUSD - M Dears,
I know most of the traders think about this chart it is a new chart, but as you can see with the attached chart you can see the old one it was 21 July 2019.
and we have mentioned the gold from that date it is bullish, and it will not be bearish till touching the resistant, and that time we want to get the confirmation of the bearish with price action.
Note: we believe the coronaviruses will start to begin to weaken, and all the markets, economies, and life will working and life gradually returns to normal.
take care and be in save.