Master the Simple Inside Bar Pattern
hey guys,
on WTI we have a perfect example of Inside Bar candlestick pattern on a daily chart.
An inside bar is a series of bars or sometimes just one bar that is contained within the range of the preceding bar (mother bar).
The first rule that we should take into account is that inside bars must have a higher low and lower high than the mother bar.
The second rule is that we trade this pattern only after bearish or bullish breakout of a mother bar trading range.
The logic behind inside bar is simple. It indicates a time of indecision and market consolidation. Inside bars typically occur as a market consolidates after making a large directional move (bearish on WTI), you also can see this pattern at key decision points like major support or resistance levels.
For WTI our plan is to wait until a violation of a trading range.
Remember that the candle MUST close below or above the range before we take any action!
Commodities
Buy GOLD using as timing signal VIX Volatility S&P 500 (SPX)Buy GOLD using as timing signal VIX Volatility SP500 $SPX. Mark 1st month 20 MA turns up. Mark month when SPX bar red. Mark same when GOLD above is red too (only been six occassions since 2000) - purple horizontal is stop loss & break above WHITE horizontal (previous Williams Fractal - could try pivot H & L as well) purple vertical confirms buy. NOT ADVICE. DYOR
US Oil: A big challengeUS Oil presents some serious challenges for those looking to short this market.
This analysis is time frame dependent. Which way you might want to go depends entirely on trends in respective time frames.
DAILY PICTURE
1. On the daily time frame this is very much a bull market. We can see that in the ATR (amber trendline) and the green Guppy investor zone.
2. On the daily price has made a temporary retreat to near ATR support, in a parabolic limb of the curve.
3. If anything this is usually a place to go long (on this time frame).
4H - FOUR HOURLY PICTURE
1. There is an early trend switch for the south.
2. This is seen on the ATR and SQM (Squeeze momentum).
3. But it isn't as yet a Grade A or Grade B switch.
DECISION-MAKING (Speculative issues)
1. Finding appropriate entry point on a chosen time frame.
2. For a limited hit going long (north) on the 4H, taking a reasonable stop loss and taking only about a 26 or 38.2 Fib retracement of the most recent daily candle.
3. For a limited hit going short (south) on the 4H, a larger stop-loss is required.
4. Possibly going long on the daily and hold out.
As usual before starting any trade on any time frame common things need to be decided:
1. Time frame one will stick to (1D, 4H or something else).
2. Entry position.
3. Stop-loss.
4. Exit position.
Stop-losses on 4H and less need to cater for short spikes in price. So simply saying 2.5 times ATR may not be enough.
Based on experience only of US Oil, I can expect a recoil up on the 4H but of course, I can't predict how much. As mentioned above I can expect at least a 26% Fib on the length of the last daily candle. Expectation is not prediction.
Declaration : This post is for educational purposes only. Nothing here is intended as advice. Your losses are your own should you still construe this as advice, act on it, and lose money.
My TOP 10 Posts! Must Reads for Beginner Traders!I wrote more than 1200 posts in TradingView. The majority of them are trading ideas and market overviews. Even if they helped you to make tons of profit, I think their value is much lower than the few educational posts I published.
I am a person who believes that knowledge and experience are the main elements of success. No matter in which field, if you know what to do and if you have experience - one day you will reach your goal.
Trading signals are just one tool which can't make you a successful trader if you don't have knowledge and experience.
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This is Why Beginner Traders Lose Their Capital – 1. No Strategy
This is Why Beginner Traders Lose Their Capital – 2. Risk/Reward
This is Why Beginner Traders Lose Their Capital – 3.Trade Volume
This is Why Beginner Traders Lose Their Capital – 4.Overactivity
WHEN CAN YOU START TRADING FOR A LIVING?
90% of Traders Lose Their Money! Do You Really Want to Succeed?
The Key Elements to Succeed in The Financial Markets
Trading Signals Won’t Make You Rich!
Trading Signals Won’t Make You Rich!
Spoiled Community and How to Become Successful
Good luck in your journey in the financial markets!
Trading styles. Part 1/5. The 4 different kinds of bottoms.I see 4 types of bottoms. Most retail try to buy at the bottom and lose, this might indicate that it is a fool's game and best avoided, but if it is used intelligently, within the correct bias, or going with the higher timeframe trend, or just to put it generally, inside of a smart positive expectancy strategy, THEN it can be a powerful tool. I still think this is dangerous and requires plenty of experience and understanding markets in general, as well as the specific market very well.
Type A: The rock solid bottom.
The price hit a wall and buyers stopped sellers, that are unable to push the price to new lows, even thought they are trying.
What looks exactly the same but is not it:
I enter inside of the consolidation, more in the middle, once it is perfectly clear.
Trying to buy at the bottom of it is plain stupid. 100% of those that try lose.
Type B: A bis. Less clear, quicker one.
The buyers have stopped the sellers (and vice versa) for a few candles, and then manage to reverse the price!
What looks exactly the same but is not it:
Here I think it is more interesting to enter at the low. Or once we break above the high of the consolidation.
And better have strong reasons to think this is a reversal point.
Type C: Opposite forces started showing themselves.
Also know as "the divergence bottom". I assume 90% of the time or more there is going to be RSI / MACD divergence here, but it does not bring any info we don't already know.
Here is that copper trade I posted 2 months ago:
There also was a hammer candle on the daily chart.
What looks exactly the same but is not it (oh my there are plenty. Biggest trap ever):
Really important to let these continue and not enter too early. How far well that depends, it's not an exact science anyway.
Type D: The V shape recovery. Or the idiot's game.
Buy the dip!
Now I'm sure some people are letting every one know how they make money being lucky - er I mean catching falling knives at the bottom, and there might be very very few that get lucky over long periods - eeer I mean manage to consitently make profit for a certain amount of time.
I did try this myself because I wanted to try every thing, I stayed really small. The kind of people that try this 99% of the time have a few things in common. Little experience (newbs), do not understand odds risk to reward, do not understand risk, have no idea how to make money, think you have to be right all the time and "buy cheap" and follow the idiots calling them super legends or some dumb names. They also all always have a completely flawed logic that leaves no doubt as to how smart they are.
I estimate the average IQ of people that "buy dips" is around 60.
Just going to show a few examples here:
Here is how I would trade those: not. Let fools take one for the team and create an A B C. Let them not miss out on all the juicy losers tell you what an idiot you are for missing out, and in 6-12 months go check their profile on tv (or any other similar site) and notice how they have been inactive for the past 3+ months :D
If you have insider info or are value investing and have big bags to fill, then this is the best I would say. Just soak up all the tremendous momentum miam miam miam goble goble goble.
A personal favorite:
I must admit, that Helios & Matheson situation makes me soooo happy. I am so glad they got their faces smashed to the ground. Crushed. I just want to lick their tears à la Cartman. A harsh but important lesson was learned.
I really really would love to see the cocky absolute morons - that think they're smarter than every one why is this a recurring theme among idiots? - of Tesla and Bitcoin get DESTROYED.
Not just down 90%. Noooooo I want to see them down HMNY% *cruel evil laugh*
Ye don't catch falling knives, especially blindly, and use stop losses that make sense.
Reading NEWS Daily would make you a BETTER Trader Overall!Well, there are three types of traders we can come across and all of them believe their method of trading yields them profits, be it using only indicators and price action (Technical analyst) or reacting to news whilst trading (fundamental analyst) or trading according to market sentiment (sentimental Analyst)!
In most circumstances we can only see that some traders lets take for instance technical analysis traders, they only perform their trades based on analysis of the charts by using patterns and indicators!. While there may be few traders who combine Both fundamental and technical analysis to execute their trades, most of them do NOT prefer to do this method particularly as they believe "its take a lot of effort to combine these two techniques which would eventually result in executing less trades when compared to using single method!"
Whereas the above statement holds true, it can also be fairly said that the combination of the three techniques (technical, fundamental and sentimental analysis) gives a trader more confidence and trust in his/her analysis!. Take for example myself, i used to execute around 2 trades daily when i was basing my analysis solely on technical perspective. These days i only execute around 5 trades a MONTH due to i combine all these 3 techniques which gives me more confidence and trust in executing my trades! I also noticed that since my trades are high probability setups, my win rate is way better when i was using on technical analysis alone. These days i hardly do DAY trading as i spend most of the time reading news and chart analysis to find high probability trades on higher time frames (DAILY, WEEKLY & RARELY 4HR). What i have come to realize in all these years is that SWING trading gives me more accurate results and high win percentage. I do NOT expect to double my account in a month's time, but i trade using risk management and just execute enough trades to make what i can without being stress and blowing up my account!
So my advice to all you guys would be to try to combine both fundamental and technical analysis to execute your trades. Here is a big TIP for those that only use technical analysis to execute their trades: TRY TO SPEND 1-2 HOURS A DAY READING NEWS ON APPS SUCH AS INVESTING.COM (BOTH ANALYSIS AND NEWS SECTION), MYFXBOOK NEWS SECTION AND TRADER SENTIMENT SECTION, HAVE A LOOK AT SOMEONES ELSE IDEAS ON TRADINGVIEW.COM If you keep this a habit of reading news and analysis together whilst performing your own too, you will develop a GUT feeling technique that is unique and which will likely tell you where the market is headed prior to you even performing your technical analysis! Its a very special technique but it takes time and habit to develop.
Here we see the main of GOLD (XAUUSD) pair i has a gut feeling would reverse and dip slightly because markets were in RISK ON mood. Now this pair is on its way to form HEAD AND SHOULDERS PAttern which is on the verge of breaking the neckline. Now the pattern is not yet complete because the technically the neckline has not broken, but i have a GUT feeling that it would break soon enough and target the ascending trendline beneath at 1260.000 level.
its a very special technique and i hope some of you could combine them and use it to your greater advantage! Cheers
Gold - Let's wait for a better entry! #gold #wealth $NUGT $XAUU
--Bearish Indicators--
Weekly STOCH
Weekly RSI
Weekly CMF
--Bearish Indicators--
Daily McGinley
--Bearish Indicators--
Weekly/Daily Coppock Curve
CMF - Bearish
--Bearish Indicators--
Ich - Broke through support, moving averages bearish
Traders on TV were longing based strictly off Ich support..
Bollingers - Mixed Signals because 1300 will be a point of resistance due to it being the 20dSMA for the bollingers
MACD - Bearish
Good Luck trading gold guys, I say be patient and look for a better place to long.
Still bullish on gold long term, think we can get a better buying to swing here though. #Notwillingtoshort
MY LEADING INDICATORS IN USE!Made this for someone in the chatbox, but thought newbies or so may find it helpful to try out themselves too, so bon apetite all.
P.S. if i ignore any questions after today then it is because today is my last day off work. After this, it is back to being a slave to the system lol.
Evening Star Pattern TechniquesIn this example, you will see an evening star signal who’s third candlestick engulfs the first and second candlestick in the pattern. This is a high probability signal , although it usually does not make for a very good risk to reward scenario.Trading the Morning Star Candlestick Pattern, I mentioned that I prefer to wait for a pullback on signals that have an engulfing third candle. That’s exactly how I would have played the signal below.
By waiting for a pullback in price to the 50% mark of the large, third candlestick in this pattern, you either
create a more favorable risk to reward scenario, or you avoid the trade altogether.
In our example,we would have stayed out of the trade using this technique.
Discipline management is one of the hardest things to master. Discipline management is one of the hardest things to master . At the same time, it is the most important element
of successful trading.
It is up to every trader to establish a pre-market routine and build strong trading habits.
You should strive to attain discipline if you ever hope to achieve any level of trading success.
Trading discipline is practised 100 percent of the time, in every trade, each and every day.
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XAU/USDGold is following the above channel so time your entry right. Also be prepare for a break in channel at some point, which will break to the downside. At the moment current movement is consolidation, so a big move to follow.
Warning; trading comes with risks, trade safely and within reason. All charts to be used for guideline purposes only.
GOLD - Weekly - Multi-Timeframe Analysis Series 1GOLD has a correlation to the strength of USD, as a risk-off asset investors seek haven in the event of Dollar weakness (USD falls > GOLD rises). I'm sure there's more to it than that, be sure to check it out online for yourself.
Comments
As anticipated during the breakdown of the Monthly timeframe, looking at the Weekly you can see how we respected the 20/50 EMA wave and bounced to the upside. Considering the amount of deceleration looking left when we previously approached the upper level of the zone, and comparing that current price conditions, I foresee more upwards pressure this week in the form of consolidation. Monthly swings take much longer to develop and turn around than that say on of the Daily time horizon.
If I am to get short on GOLD it will be after a push to the upside into the 1330 region, or below the 1280 level. The only problem with getting short below 1280 is we'd be trading directly into the 20/50 EMA wave (which is a big negative trade confluence). This is an unnecessary risk in my opinion.
Key Note
Taking a short at the top of the range has less risk than shorting closer to the median / Weekly mid-level of the range.
GOLD - Monthly - Multi-Timeframe Analysis Series 1GOLD has a correlation to the strength of USD, as a risk-off asset investors seek haven in the event of Dollar weakness (USD falls > GOLD rises). I'm sure there's more to it than that, be sure to check it out online for yourself.
Comments
The Monthly timeframe has a clear to identify trading zone from 1330 - 1180 region. Alone this isn't enough to form a thesis for the direction of GOLD in my opinion due to the level of acceleration into the resistance zone of 1330's. Looking left you can see a clean sell-off followed by a decisive buyers rally. This tells me there's interest in buying GOLD which could see prices near the highs before a fall back down to the bottom of the range.
Looking at the candlestick formation at the top of the zone, we have a nice high test candle which stands out from the rest of the price action looking left. I would like to see more deceleration though before trading GOLD to the downside.
The current month hasn't come to an end yet, so the most recent Monthly candle cannot be considered complete.
Key Note
During a ranging market, the EMA's will trade sideways and cannot be used with the same set of rules as during a trending market. If a range is formed on the Monthly timeframe however, a trend can exist on the lower timeframes. You need to be aware of your time horizons when considering confluences. Price always rules over indicators.
OIL TARGET REGIONS MAPPED OUTOil on the 1day view and possible targets outlined, trade within and/or watch out for a future break in trend.
If oil does stay within channel then expect a drop from around 60.90 - 61.30
If market breaks up then next big target region 67.60 - 68.00
Warning; trading comes with risks, trade safely and within reason. All charts to be used for guideline purposes only.
USOIL headed downWeekly chart shows price nearing the apex of the ascending wedge with a target of $45. RSI is hitting resistance and MACD's histogram is possibly printing hidden bearish divergence.
H4 chart shows RSI, and possibly MACD, printing bearish divergence. The nearby demand has already been tapped once making it much easier for the next drop into it to potentially fall further. I would watch for the demand below that at around $55 to provide some support. It also aligns with the ascending channel's support. If that support cannot hold then, based on the height of the ascending channel, we should be looking at $49.70/$50 for the next likely support. That target is a mere $5 away from the weekly breakdown target.
Gold is in a bubble - only traces inflation due to 'Reflexivity'Do not follow the financial advice of dinosaur gold shills, who are mostly over the age of 65 years and have weakened IQs and memory retention. Please study George Soros' Theory of Reflexivity (inb4 "Soros is evil, Qanon blah blah blah"). Gold only traces inflation because people 'believe' it should trace inflation. Gold has little to no utility in manufacturing especially given the discovery of synthetic substitutes ionised from copper particles. Gold is a great luxury asset used in the production of Jewellery which the world has an over abundance of already, that can easily be recycled. Like all asset bubbles such as real estate, stocks, bonds, etc Gold is also in a bubble. Gold has no future in a digital economy. The world has experienced the greatest reduction in poverty since the abolishment of the gold standard. This is due to the velocity of money, where the faster the exchange of value is in any given economy the more growth said economy experiences.
The world will never return to a 'gold standard' because the negotiation of trade and the rules of exchange can be much more efficiently coordinated and managed using computer networks and high tech communication systems. Gold is a barbarous relic, and has no inherent/intrinsic value since all words and perceptions of value are subjective and change rapidly over time. If value is subjective, and we live in a highly complicated matrix society that has vast computing resources at it's disposal then what purpose does gold actually have? Cryptocurrencies are in a bear market and due to the Theory of Reflexivity their value is underestimated by society at large. However their utility in terms of the velocity of money, where value can be exchanged in seconds, where consensus is regulated by a large distributed network, where security is guaranteed through various cryptographic algorithms such as SHA256, and where productive capacity is maintained by decentralised autonomous communities (which are virtually impossible to compete with) makes certain cryptocurrencies far greater investments than Gold and precious metals.
Do some research on XRP and Ripple. Do no fall for the doomsday fear porn that drives the sales of precious metals. Look to countries such as Turkey, Venezuela, Argentina etc and realise that cryptocurrencies best facilitate trade during periods of economic downturn. Those countries aren't turning to gold to facilitate trade, especially since Gold is extremely difficult to maintain security over. Will gold always have a place in society? Yes, of course it will. Will gold ever shift the paradigm of civilisation as we know it? Hell no. I'm not saying you shouldn't maintain holdings of precious metals, but you should reduce your exposure to them, since cryptocurrencies will dramatically shift the perception of value that we currently place on gold going into the future.
take a look at how a pin bar can indicate a possible downtrendIn the chart above,
we have a bullish pin bar that formed on the USDJPY weekly chart.
.This pin bar formed at a previous resistance level,
which is now acting as support.
This price action signal tells us that the market is likely to see higher ground in the weeks ahead.
"BUT" instead of trading the weekly time frame,
we can move to the daily chart and watch for bullish price action.
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