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Technical Analysis 101!!SELF DEVELOPMENT/METHODOLOGY/PSYCHOLOGY Technical Analysis 101!! Interpreting the candlestick This type of chart is an extension of the bar chart as discussed and is actively utilised by the investors in China for more than 500 years of time period. It helps in providing the information regarding open, close, low and high in the dimensional format. It can be seen that the vertical axis of the chart helps in providing information on the prices of the FOREX whereas the horizontal axis represents the time period. The white candles are the representation of the advances of the currency and the black candles, on the other hand, represents the decline in the value of the FOREX. Moreover, the body denotes the thick portion of the candle, and the vertical line represents the wick. This chart helps the investor to forecast the future price movement of the FOREX. b) Charting systems In the mind of a few people, charts are the exemplary image of the trader’s speciality. The experienced eye can make ups and down. Charting is a questionable piece of the fund. Future research is probably going to reveal things about outlining that would amaze people today. All things considered, even individuals who eagerly restrict the training are ought to be acquainted with the essential techniques of charting. Follow your Trading plan, Remain disciplined and keep learning !! Please Follow, Like,Comment & Follow Thank you for your support :) This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell. It is to be used for educational purposes only!
FX_IDC:USDWTIEducation
by SMPTrader
How to Trade in Traditional MarketsHello friends, thanks you very much for your interesting comments to my previous “Why Do You Like to Lose Money?” post. I’m happy to know that not all of you want to stay with status of “crypto enthusiastic trader” and you also want to use trading opportunities from traditional markets as well. It’s really good because if your REAL target is to make additional or the main income from trading, you MUST do logical things. They are simple: if the market does not give you good trading opportunities, you move to another. If it does, you come back. If your trading strategy does not work, you have to search for a new one and so on. Also, I understand that for you may be it’s not simple to move in a new direction. You started with crypto from zero knowledge about trading. You followed fake experts, got fake experience and learnt fake knowledge. The crypto world created a lot of fake things around it when there was a great hype for crypto and people could buy, follow and use any low quality “products” and “services”. Of course with this knowledge it’s rather difficult to think about making profit in the traditional markets. You can't expect every pattern to confirm and every indicator to be right - It does not work like that all the time. That bull market where everyone was always right is over now. Maybe there will be a new one, but until then, it's time to trade the right way. Because of the low quality knowledge and experience which you could get here and there from who knows what noob that thought he knows things because he got 5 charts right, you may have been pushed into a wrong trading workflow. Applying the same logic in the current situation and on real markets, every mistake will cost you money. So, what should you do? The 1st step you should start getting the right knowledge. For this you can read actually cool books from REAL legends with great experience and who are trusted by the financial community. I talk about legendary traders, investors who shared their knowledges, experience, trading strategies, tactics and tips in their books and courses. The 2nd step is, you have to think about your trading goals and create a Trading Plan. What is a trading plan and why you need it, I can write in further posts. Also I made a webinar for this topic. You must have your trading plan where you will write all your steps in the financial markets and tools which help you to reach your goals. The 3d step you have to find any workable trading strategy and start using it on demo accounts. Of course the best variant is when you design your personal trading strategy, but without good knowledge and experience it will be difficult to do. By using ready trading strategies from professional traders will give you more understanding of how to trade like a PRO. The 4th step is to create your personal risk and money management strategies. Based on the trading strategies results' you will be able to think about your comfortable risk level and how to manage your demo capital properly. Also, risk and money management strategies must be included in your Trading Plan. The 5th step - only here when you have everything in your arsenal like: Trading Plan, Trading Strategies tested in demo trading, Risk and Money Management Strategies, Knowledge and some Experience - ONLY AFTER THAT you can start real trading. Not at step 1. I insist! You can write down these 5 steps, and if you will tell me it will take much time and efforts for starting trading and it’s better to buy super profitable signals from crypto guru and become rich quickly... I will reply that these 5 steps are not perfect and it’s better to make 10 step in order to start from the beginning level and reach PRO level. These 5 steps are just a possible and logical road map if you decided to make stable profit in the financial markets. You will need several months for this, but opportunities which will be opened to you - they will surprise you. Also I need to add a very important idea to this post. WHY TRADITIONAL MARKETS ARE SO COOL! They have good infrastructure which can be used for automated trading. Crypto does not provide good terms for automated trading using the bots outside the raging bull market, but traditional markets are perfect for this. You have professional trading platforms which can be improved by new indicators and trading robots. You have opportunities to realize in code a great number of trading strategies. The robots can trade for you when you sleep, when you are at your work or when you have a vacation. You will need only to monitor their work time by time. Trading robots allow you to join the traditional financial markets even when you don’t have knowledge, experience, time and wish to improve yourself as a trader or investor. Trading robots can become a real alternative of that 5 steps, but it's better to have them as a complimentary system to your future trading based on real knowledge. I'll explain why: This direction of trading is also interesting for those who have experience, knowledge and tools and who trade in profit already. Trading robots allow to diversify your trading, they can be added in any portfolio. Using a combination of manual trading, automated trading with robots will make your trading more stable and probably more profitable in long run. Automated trading is a really good alternative for manual trading and if you want to learn more details about it, please write in comments. Also I will be able to write with more details why I think any crypto bot just a useless thing at this moment. Please, write in comments will it be interesting for you to know why I think so? Also, if you do not agree with me and you have other point of view, I will be glad to discuss with you in the comments - just don't be rude, there's no need for that. Thank you very much for your attention!
FX:XAUUSDEducation
by DLavrov
24
Creating your own Trading Strategy!!SELF DEVELOPMENT/METHODOLOGY/PSYCHOLOGY Creating your own Trading Strategy!! Below is a quick run down of things to think about when creating your own trading strategy 1. How much time during the day do you have to devote to trading? .................................................................................. 2. How much money do you need to live on each year and how much of that must come out of trading profits? ...................................................................................................................................... 3. How many distractions can you expect during the day/night? ..................................................................... 4. Specify the markets and times of the day you will trade? ......................................................................... 5. Do I want to trade multiple systems? ............................................... 6. Will you short sell? Or go long? ........................................ 7.Where will you place your Entry/Stop Loss and Target Line? ........................................................................... Follow your Trading plan, Remain disciplined and keep learning !! Please Follow, Like,Comment & Follow Thank you for your support :) This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell. It is to be used for educational purposes only!
FX_IDC:USDWTIEducation
by SMPTrader
Elements of a Successful Trading Plan 102SELF DEVELOPMENT/METHODOLOGY/PSYCHOLOGY Elements of a Successful Trading Plan 102 2. Risk Level Managing a risk in trading is essential if a person wishes to make profitable investments. As a trader, one cannot control the market but he/ she do have the capacity to change what can be done as circumstances require. They need to adapt the changes as the market conditions evolve. A person does not take a position and hopes the market acts in your favour. Managing trading risk will be a key factor in an individual’s long term success as a trader. As the market, structure changes, the risk profile of trade will also change. Risk will vary at different points of a trade and needs to be managed in a manner, which is consistent with the individual style of each trader. This will be dependent on each trader’s personality and time frame. Assessing market conditions can be categorised into core areas where one need to consider the risk profile in his/ her trade. This risk needs to be assessed also in line with your trading objectives. Active traders will tend to add and take off risk for each new swing in the market, whilst passive investors will ride minor retracements looking to achieve larger reward targets. Following are some areas where risk can be managed throughout a trade as well as what to look out for at these points that indicate that the risk is increasing; • At Entry: Stop loss risk. • Distance from Moving Average: Price exhaustion risk. • “M” Pattern: Price retest failure risk. • Candlestick Tails and Shadows: Price rejection risk. • Period Close: Price rejection risk. • Reducing Range: Trend momentum risk. • Support or Resistance: Price level failure risk. It is necessary that how an individual plan to address the risk management needs to be included as a critical part of the trading plan in order to protect the invested capital and preserve the profits. One need to have strategies in place for how he will deal with the different areas throughout a trade and how he will know when risk is increasing to a point where action needs to be taken either to protect profits or capital. Follow your trading plan, Remain disciplined and keep learning :) More elements will follow... Like, share, Comment and follow us to keep updated on our professional trading ideas and education :)
FX_IDC:USDWTIEducation
by SMPTrader
6 Things That Separate The Pro From The Amateur Trader!! Ben SELF DEVELOPMENT/METHODOLOGY/PSYCHOLOGY 6 Elements of a Successful Trading Plan 1. Test The test is considered as the start-up element of the successful trading plan. It refers to the successfulness or failure of any currency involved. In most organisations, time is the primary driver for assessing execution. The assessment period is constructed with respect to the quantity of exchanges put and not by the measure of time passed. You should distinguish the correct number of exchanges for the assessment, however, this number should be sufficiently high that an individual has a nice example set, yet sufficiently low where it keeps you from going on a damaging exchanging. More elements will follow... Like, share, Comment and follow us to keep updated on our professional trading ideas and education :) Follow your trading plan, remain disciplined and keep learning :)
TVC:GOLDEducation
by SMPTrader
1
A 3 Day Trend IndicatorA 3 day chart is very useful in terms of being able to see a major trend reversal. It eliminates the noise of daily or lower timeframe charts and shows the change in trend faster than the higher timeframes such as the weekly and monthly. Keep track of the candles and look for a higher high and higher low candle for the first signal. The USOIL chart above shows a sequence of 3 day candles that have lower lows and lower highs for the past 8 or more candles, clearly showing that the major trend is down. Short risk on oil is out of the question as long as there's no higher high and higher low 3 day candle. As soon as there's one, at least a minor change in trend can be anticipated and traders are likely to switch to short risk.
TVC:USOILEducation
by Zoen_Trieste
3
Back Testing - Evaluating your Trading Strategy 101SELF DEVELOPMENT/METHODOLOGY/PSYCHOLOGY Back Testing - Evaluating your Trading Strategy 101 Backtesting of technical methods in light of past prices is the most popular testing strategy among technical traders.Below is a short list that will get you started; 1. How many trades does it generate? .............................................. 2. Whats the reliability of the system? ............................................... 3. How big is the average profit compared to the average loss? ............................................................................. 4. Many more.............. #Remember that you need enough data to create at least 30 trades in each test # Please let me know if you would like to know more :) Happy Trading "success occurs when opportunity meets preparation" Zig Ziglar
TVC:GOLDEducation
by SMPTrader
Financial Market Introduction 101SELF DEVELOPMENT/METHODOLOGY/PSYCHOLOGY Financial Market Introduction 101 a) Market participants Market Participants include those parties that are involved in the operations of investment companies. Their control in the market is necessary and they should be well aware of the changes in the market. 1. Brokers and dealers handle trade activities between the buyers and sellers of currencies by charging a fee. They are the crucial part of the FOREX market, which acts as a medium between buyers and sellers. 2. Investment advisers are individuals who provide investment advice to investors by issuing reports regarding the analysis of investment securities. 3. The investor is one of the main participants of the financial market as funds are allocated to them as a capital to gain financial returns in future. 4. A central bank is one of the monetary authority and it regulates the state's currency, interest rates and money supply. Performance of the commercial banking system is also overviewed by the Central bank of respective countries. b) The Trading Market Trading market is a place where trading of currency and securities are done. The market includes brokers and investment experts who provide active services as traders on the basis of their education and knowledge regarding the market. They take investment decisions on the basis of different trading methodologies and data from past years to determine the most profitable investment. c) The Best Time to Trade Best time during the year Previous yearly records show that October and September are considered as the best months to invest in the FOREX. The main reason is due to the price bumps, which usually arises during the month of November and December, due to the seasonal changes. Best time during the Month The best time of the month to invest in the FOREX is during the first five and last five days of the month. The fact was illustrated in research conducted by Professor Ogden’s, which determines different types of investment return that are paid in the last first few days of the month. This "regularity of payments" can enable the investors to generate profit on their investments. 1. Municipal bonds interest payments are made up to 90% 2. 70% of corporate bonds principal payments 3. Preferred stock dividends are paid up to 65% 4. 45% of all common stock dividends. d) Market Cycles Market cycles are considered as the key to determining the maximum returns. The market cycle can be divided into 4 phases: Accumulation Phase • The accumulation phase arises after the market decline and experienced traders start to buy after figuring that the worst position of the market is ended. • At this time period, currency price valuations are pretty enough that they can play an essential role in profit generation. However, in this stage, prices are flattered and every seller in the market knows that the buyer will get a healthy discount. Mark-up Phase • A Mark-up stage the market stability moves forward towards the higher market moves. During this time media stories usually determine that the worst period of trading is over, however, increase in unemployment can arise during this period. • At the maturity of this phase, investors use bandwagon because of their fear regarding the decrease in market prices. A bandwagon is a group including technicians who analyses the market prices to recognise the changes in market direction and sentiment. The Distribution Phase • Within this time period, sellers dominate the market. The bullish market sentiments can turn the market cycle towards the mixed sentiment. Prices in this phase stay locked, which can last for some weeks and months. • Even the timing models do not flash any signals to buy the currency. This phase can be affected due to the bad economic news or adverse geopolitical event. Mark-Down Phase • This stage can be most painful for the investors, those who still hold their previous FOREX reserve can get huge losses, as they would have to sell them even at the lower prices at which they have bought the currency. • However, this phase determines the buying signals to the early innovators, which can enable them to generate returns in future once the prices got higher. This stage also demonstrates that it is not the good period to sell the FOREX. e) Days of the Week 1. Throughout the whole week, Monday is considered as most the best day to buy FOREX, as the prices usually show a decline. A study conducted on "A Survey of the Monday Effect Literature" reveals that decline in the prices can be the reason of bad news that was released during the weekend. 2. Conversely, if Monday is considered as the best day to buy FOREX, Friday is determined as the most feasible day to sell it. As it is better to sell the reserve before the weekend due to changes of price decreases which can affect the profitability of investment, in case of selling it at lower prices on Monday. 3. Heading towards Tuesday trading can flourish a little. The reason behind this fact is that opinions are formed by the traders and they have started taking their positions in the market. Therefore, this can make a good day for trading in the market. 4. Wednesday shows the same kind of trend in trading followed by Tuesday or usually depicts bigger price moves and is considered as the second-best day of the week for trading. 5. Thursday, it quickens. Thursday is considered as the days when huge profits can be made by the investors. Investing in the right currency can enable the investor to generate huge profits. f) Hours of the Day Trading in the morning time is not a good idea as market prices and volumes can change roughly. It is assumed by experts that these are considered as volatile hours and several new releases can affect the investment outcomes adversely. However, trading in the middle of the day can be favourable for the investor, as prices mainly remain stable during this time period. Several time frame analysis is utilised by the investor to select the most appropriate time for trading. g) Swing Approach Swing-Traders analyses the swing chart within the day so that they can take advantage of favourable price changes in the marketplace, and this affords them the benefit of not having to watch markets continuously while they are trading. Once they find an opportunity in terms of increase in FOREX prices, they place the currency on sale and then constantly keep a check on the progress of the pricing. The approach has different optimal time frames, which include: • Daily, and Weekly Charts • 4 Hour, and 1 Hour charts...... Please let me know if you would like to know more Happy trading :) "In investing, what is comfortable is rarely profitable" Robert Arnott
FX_IDC:USDWTIEducation
by SMPTrader
Money Management 101SELF DEVELOPMENT/METHODOLOGY/PSYCHOLOGY Money Management 101 Are you receiving a win-rate of more then 60% and still loosing money?? Money Management may be an area that you need to focus on. It is an essential element in becoming a professional trader. Listed below are 4 Simple Steps To Evaluate Your Financial Health; 1. Position Sizing A portfolio of $... and I decide to only risk 2% on a trading strategy 2. Capital - How much? A portfolio of $.... 3. Loss - How much? I must be right more then 50% of the time, but win more money on winning trades versus losing trades. I will use stops and limits to enforce a risk/reward ratio of 1:2 or higher 4. Profits - What? A profit/loss ratio refers to the size of the average profit compares to the size of the average loss per trade. For example, if your expected profit is $1500 and your expected loss is $500, the P/L ratio is 3:1 Please let me know if you have any questions :) Happy Trading "The simpler it is, the better i like it" Peter Lynch
TVC:GOLDEducation
by SMPTrader
Trading Journal Basics 101SELF DEVELOPMENT/METHODOLOGY/PSYCHOLOGY Trading Journal Basics 101 During my trading career one of the most important elements of trading is keeping records of your trading performance. Whether its using an excel document or software such as the EDGEWONK TRADING JOURNAL, its crucial to see where you business has come from and where its going!! Below is a small detailed list of elements of a trading journal; 1. Date/time entered and exited trade 2. Asset traded 3. Long or short trade 4. Entry/ Stop loss and target price 5. Risk/Reward 6. Exit price. Did i exit at the target price? If not why? 7. Profit/Loss 9. Pips amount 10.Balance 11. Notes on trade ( both Pros and cons) 12. How can i improve next time? 13. Missed trades? 14. and many more.... Once again this is just a very basic list and there a lots more that can go into the journal. Note: Edgewonk is by far the best trading journal software that i have ever used. I highly recommend it and if you would like to know more please let me know :) Happy Trading
TVC:GOLDEducation
by SMPTrader
1
Basic Technical Analysis 101SELF DEVELOPMENT/METHODOLOGY/PSYCHOLOGY Basic Technical Analysis Interpreting the candlestick This type of chart is an extension of the bar chart and is actively utilised by the investors in China for more than 500 years of time period. It helps in providing the information regarding open, close, low and high in the dimensional format. It can be seen that the vertical axis of the chart helps in providing information on the prices of the FOREX whereas the horizontal axis represents the time period. The green candles are the representation of the advances of the currency and the red candles, on the other hand, represents the decline in the value of the FOREX. Moreover, the body denotes the thick portion of the candle, and the vertical line represents the wick. This chart helps the investor to forecast the future price movement of the FOREX. Charting systems In the mind of a few people, charts are the exemplary image of the trader’s speciality. The experienced eye can make ups and down. Charting is a questionable piece of the fund. Future research is probably going to reveal things about outlining that would amaze people today. All things considered, even individuals who eagerly restrict the training are ought to be acquainted with the essential techniques of charting.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDEducation
by SMPTrader
GOLD: A 3 Pack Of Possibilities. But All Have 1 Thing In CommonSo if you are looking at my charts/posts and are expecting me to give you a trade, then you shouldn't be following me. But if you are following me to LEARN something, then you are in the right place. There are plenty of posters here who give you actual trades. But as they say, "you get what you pay for". So here, what I am posting for you is an example of why it is that wave counting is not an "exact science" but rather much more of just each person's opinion. That has always been the argument against wave counting as a useful prediction tool. But in reality, out of all the so-called indicators, it is the only one that actually can "predict" what is going to happen. It is forward looking. Not just backward looking. That is why all the traditional indicators such as Moving Averages, RSI, Bollingers, MACD are all "lagging indicators" because they can only tell you what already happened. They are not used to project forward. And if you are using it that way, I'm sure you are not having much success. So back to wave counting. Wave counting is based on the "human factor". What is that you ask? Let me ask you, what moves the market? Is it the news? Economic factors? Geo-political happenings? If you thought any of those things are what moves the market, then I would argue that you are missing the point. The ONLY thing that moves prices in the market is the buying/selling action of traders. Simple. That is all. Unless you are into conspiracy theories that is. Which I'm not. And if you are, then don't trade. Because you can't beat whoever it is you think is manipulating things anyway! Back to the point though. It is the trading action of traders that moves prices. Whether that be a small trader like yourself or the multi-billion dollar hedge fund manager or the HST algos, the buy/sell orders is what moves prices. Not the news itself. The trader's REACTION to the news and subsequent action to buy or sell is what causes the markets to move during news events. NOT the news itself! So what causes the trader to react and place a trade? One thing: emotions. Specifically, FEAR & GREED. Fear causes traders to close out positions and Greed causes them to place orders be it buy or sell. This is what is called the "human factor". Why is this important and how does it relate to wave counting, you ask? This might get somewhat too into psychology for you but if you can understand the human mind, you can understand the market, why it moves, how it moves, and when it moves. You see, there is one indisputable fact....humans are creatures of habit. We tend to do things the same way over and over and over again. Even if that thing we are doing is detrimental and not helpful. We do it again and again. Wonder why you always lose? Take a good, hard look in the mirror and see if you are trading the same way over and over again. I guarantee you will find a pattern to your trading. And if you are losing and you keep following that pattern, you will continue to lose. Insanity = Doing the same thing over and over again but expecting different results So back to wave counting....wave counting has been backtested ad infinitum. And the rules, laws and theories of wave counting are all based on repeating patterns over and over again. It has been found and proven that these repeating patterns exist and they work in definable, predictable waves. This is based on the what I just told you about humans....we are creatures of habit and do the same things over and over again and again. I already established that it is the trader's buying and selling that moves the market. And that buying and selling is based on human emotions and how we react to whatever the stimulus is whether its news or a technical pattern. Because most all the time, we will react in a predictable manner, that is what causes wave patterns to occur over and over and over again. Predictably. So back to my charts on Gold here. What you see are 3 possibilities of what the wave count could be as I see it. Some other wave counter may see something different. Beauty is in the eye of the beholder, right? One of the major criticisms of wave counting is exactly this, that there are almost always several possible counts so how can you rely on it? My answer? I don't rely on any single count. What I do is always look at several possibilities and when they all match? Well, that is when there is a good trade to be had. Of course, there are other factors that I take into account in my overall analysis so no, I don't purely rely on wave counting but it is one of the main analytical tools I use. So Gold....as you can see, the one thing all 3 of these counts have in common is that eventually, Gold is pointing UP! Take that for what its worth! Want to know more about Gold and other commodities? PM me or look at my sig box below.
FX:XAUUSDEducation
by EverythingForex
7
Definitions: Every type of decline in priceUnderstanding the definitions. Here they are, well this is my own definition, but look into any book it will be quite similar. I will post examples to show why that makes sense. First, this applies to anything that has enough participants, and enough market cap. I do not have an exact number, but if something is not public or next to impossible to trade kind of "secret" or "underground" and has a market cap of 25 million, rules do not apply. If something is a NYZE listed company with a market cap of 500 million it applies. Applies to gold, does not apply to granular piss (actually maybe it does as people are really buying this stuff and using it well idk but let's just focus on anything that has lets say a mcap of at least 500 million, the definition could be pushed to anything over 2 billion to be "safe"). The time span for declines is 1 to 2 quarters. The definition will be different for FX, numbers are smaller, and for crypto, numbers are bigger like 25% for Bitcoin is just a correction. Here are the different categories - truer definitions would use percent drops compared to average market volatility: Correction: 10% decline Bear market: 20% decline Crash: 35-60% decline MegaCrash: 60%-80% decline (less than once in a lifetime) Death: 80% decline Ponzi: 90% decline Here is the example of a correction: Here are examples of a bear market: Here are examples of market crashes: Here is a mega crash: Here is a death: Here are a few examples of ponzis :): 1- Every single stock Jordan Belfort has ever participated in. 2- 3- 4- 5- 6- 7- 8- 9- 10- 11- 12- Well any stock or crypto you find in a "hot stock" list that is "very cheap" and "a great buy"
DJ:DJIEducation
by MrRenev
2
Stocks, Dollars, and GoldContinuing my look at currency value (see ), here's several ways of looking at "How much is that asset worth?" The green/red price bars are the S&P 500 . The green line is M2 money velocity , one measure of value and dilution of the US dollar. It's basically how many times our GDP could "buy" our money supply . It's interesting to notice how public sentiment about national debt aligns with this index. I'm not taking a stance on that policy, just noticing that shortly after a presidential campaign made had the public up in arms about national debt, the value of money, as measured by M2V, rose, as did the market. Conversely, shortly after a later campaign that had the public up in arms about government surplus, that same measure went down. The hypothesis I'm trying on is, does money velocity--the ratio of money to goods--and everything that says about the value of US Dollars correlate with trend changes in the equity markets? The market dip that started in late 2000 would put equity investors entering at that time in a loss they wouldn't recoup, if they stayed in the markets, until mid 2007. By that time, money velocity had been trending down for over a year, and very quickly the market dipped again, causing losses that a long-term position wouldn't recover until Q1 2013. So far, M2V seems a fair predictor of market turns, but this doesn't hold true after the 2008 crash of the housing and mortgage bubble. Money velocity continues down, but the market takes off. Some would argue that a bigger crash is setting up; others, that the correlation is meaningless. What's a safe investor to do? How about gold? I've added gold as the yellow line in the chart. This isn't the actual price (spot price) of gold, because I couldn't find that symbol on TradingView. Instead it's the nearest contract, the price traders think gold will have in the near future. I add gold to the chart because it's often seen as a safe haven against market and currency crashes, and because gold maven Adam Baratta writes about the sort of money supply issues I've written about in his 2018 book, Gold is a Better Way . It's an interesting (and very bearish) look at the equity and debt markets--just remember it's written by someone who sells gold and whose final words in the last chapter of his latest book are, in bold, "Buy Gold Now." What I'm asking myself is, if I've got a lot of retirement savings in equities and I'm getting nervous about the stock market, how do I play it safe for awhile? Notice how gold did better than the SP500 during the latest crashes. That sounds promising...until you look at how it also trended positively with stocks during their recoveries. If you're looking for a non-correlated asset, this doesn't look like it. Instead it looks like a way to miss out on whatever benefits current fiscal policy and market bias are giving--note how gold missed out on the S&P's gains once it was back at pre-2008 levels.
SP:SPXEducation
by bradobro
Gold, GDX & GLD: Correlated Markets Lead To BIG Profits! If you trade Gold, you must know that the GDX and the GLD are both derivative markets of Gold and are closely correlated since they both track aspects of Gold. So when either one of these move, then you must look to the other one's and see what they are doing, going to do or done already. They can give you precious clues as to what the other markets are going to do. In most cases, GDX and GLD are forward indicators of Gold itself. Why do I point this out? Well, what you see in my charts is my analysis of these 3 markets and you can see that they are all closely mimic each other. Now, I follow the mantra of "Trade what you see. Not what you think". That means I look at each chart by itself and not dependent on what any other chart is doing or projected to do. But when I analyze Gold, I also do look to GDX and GLD as well and see if my independent analysis of those markets agree with what I see in Gold. But VERY IMPORTANT to keep in mind is that NO MARKET correlate 1:1 to any other market. What that means is that Gold can move 100 pips while GDX might only move 25 pts. In any case, I'm showing you these trades that I took and issued out to my followers to illustrate this point. Just a tip for you the next time you decide to trade in Gold. Want to know more? Look below to my signature box or PM me.
FX:XAUUSDEducation
by EverythingForex
3
Figuring out approximate trading volumes....All data about CME futures is available on their site. Same with ICE, same with the euro indices future exchange(s). For the rest I hunted around the internet and tried finding several sources that said the same and made sure it made sense. ***** Currencies ****** All the forex pairs: I do not really know, but the volume is huge don't worry. EURUSD alone is maybe 1 trillion, the big minors a couple hundred billions . Instant fills low spreads etc. ***** Gold and Black Gold ***** Gold: CME futures volume are around 30 billion US dollars. But the biggest volume comes from the biggest financial center in the world: the city in London. Cannot tell exactly, but the average daily volume is around 150-250 billions dollars. There is probably just a few dozen bil elsewhere. So in total we can say we are in the area of 200 billion usd. Oil (WTI only): Looking at Nov contracts only, ICE + CME = Over 50 billion usd . So it is big. ***** Indices ***** DJIA: On the CME, E-mini Dow contracts get traded with a volume of a little over 150.000 contracts a day. Which means in usd terms 150k * 5 * 26666 = 20 billion. DAX: On www.eurexchange.com The dax futures for december got traded for a volume of 85,000. A future represents 25 euros per point, so I suppose 25 * 12250 (just like CME they are too stupid to give the volume in euro or dollar). So... 25 billion euros ? Or more? Plus the other contracts. Whatever it is getting on my nerves. It is big this is what matters. Really volatile good to trade. Top tier with EUR/USD. Probably the best indice to trade. S&P 500: Cannot tell, but on the CME the E-mini S&P 500 200 billion us dollar ermaghad. I knew it was popular. E-Mini Nasdaq 100 Future: 50 billion us dollar. FTSE 100 Index Future : 6 billion £. About 8 billion usd. I have to run backtesting on this chart a bit, I am not sure I really like it. Don't know well. CAC40 INDEX FUTURE : 5 billion euros. I do not really like that chart, and volume not that great compared to the really big ones. Euro Stoxx 50 Future : 30 billion euros. I do not care about the east asia indices, they move at night for me. I would have liked to trade the nikkei and CHN a share indice, but nevermind. ***** Bonds ***** Some are good, but I am just not interested. FX + a few indices + Gold + Oil is enough I do not want to be too much of a jack of all trades. So I am not checking the volumes. US10YR got a volume of over 100 billions thought. ***** Now, for the filth ***** Soybean futures: 5 billion usd for november contract. Wanted to trade this because that's what Jim Simons traded when he started XD But I do not like the chart this much. Screw it. Might be a good niche thing idk. High grade copper: 6 billion usd . Chart seems ok, but I am not sure. Plus spread is a little high for chasing small moves. It is not very much correlated to Gold. Bitcoin: According to coinmarketcap the volume is 4 billion usd (without Korea but they do not add that much). I wonder how much of this is wash trading also. Chart is really really bad. Objectively, I simply can not recommend trading this. Could be a niche, but 50 times more people are interested in Bitcoin that EUR/USD what a niche! It is sideways all the time, but word on the street most traders are range traders that "buy low oversold but sell high overbought" and fail over and over, according to some people I do not know I can trust that say they looked at a broker data. Here you have it. The really big stuff representing the world economy with huge volume is going to be a dozen forex pairs, gold, oil, bonds, big indices, and that's it. of course they all have very large volumes. Personally the really big volume ones are my favorite. I do not think volume is the sole reason but maybe I am delusional and that is the only reason? But I knew about and sometimes looked at the Dow Jones when I was a kid I did not even know you could buy and sell the stuff. It is there since the 19th century and I always like that one. CAC40 I heard about all the time on the french radio/tv. Of course one can do anything, trading tiny penny stock (there is a strategy that consists of shorting pump and dump as they fall), or trading orange juice, why not. Usually the niche stuff is more for people that work in that area or know it well, right?
Education
by MrRenev
How It Paints - Part 2 - ETH/USD Replay Mode on Heffae CloudsSit back, relax, and watch the clouds paint on ETH/USD. In this video, watch Heffae Clouds paint the Predictive / Adaptive Support and Resistance clouds. Multiple Timeframes, 3X indicators set to 1Hour, 4Hour, and Daily timeframe. The Heffae Clouds indicator is a kind of spiritual successor to the Ichimoku Cloud. Read the full description here: PM SNOW_CITY for evaluation access to the Heffae Clouds Indicator! All 3x #heffaeclouds indicators in this video use the 1,1 PathFitting Preset for FOREX, which changes the adaptive path-fitting "seed" value as well as the adaptive cloud offset to align better with assets involved in more complex ecosystems. Preset 1,1 relaxes the time-domain and works well on assets with dependencies (erc20 ecosystem). Please note that these settings were developed far prior to these price movements; the indicator is not tailored to this asset. You can see interactions such as this with a wide variety of stocks, indices, futures, and cryptocurrencies. This indicator is organic and interpretive, you may see the cloud interactions better than I! Post your analysis and trading ideas in the HeffaeClouds Public Chat: www.tradingview.com Thanks for watching, please leave a thumbs up if you enjoy these posts or find this interesting!
BITFINEX:ETHUSDEducation
by SNOW_CITY
Best intruments to short term trade: Looking at the spreads.Howdi fearless gamblers. Today/Tonight/Yesterday I want to post about spreads. I have spend some time calculating them, so I thought, why not share? It does not cost me anything and it has value to you. In what is best to short term trade, this is what you must look at (correct me if I am wrong): - The volatility: if it does not move you are not going to get anything out of it. - When are we open? Does it fit your time schedule? - Your personal preference. - The spreads: if you aim for 1% moves and 0.3% is going to the broker, you won't get very far... Of course, this is not very important for anyone holding trades over periods of several days or weeks. So this is what I have: Currencies All calculated with FXCM, it is around the same everywhere (decent). *** USD pairs *** --- Tier 1 --- EURUSD => 0,010% USDJPY => 0,010% GBPUSD => 0,011% --- Tier 2 --- USDCAD => 0,017% USDCHF => 0,017% USDMXN => 0,017% --- Tier 3 --- AUDUSD => 0,023% --- Tier no thank you --- NZDUSD => 0,027% USDSEK => 0,031% --- God Tier --- USDCNH => < 0,0075% *** Cross pairs *** --- Tier 2 --- EURJPY => 0,016% GBPJPY => 0,018% EURCAD => 0,018% EURNZD => 0,020% EURAUD => 0,015% EURCHF => 0,019% --- Tier 3 --- GBPAUD => 0,022% GBPCAD => 0,022% --- Tier no thank you --- AUDCAD => 0,027% GBPNZD => 0,025% EURGBP => 0,024% AUDJPY => 0,026% AUDNZD => 0,032% CHFJPY => 0,022% GBPCHF => 0,027% --- Tier lol dis a joke man? --- NZDCAD => > 0,045% The Forex moves I look at that happen in a few hours to maybe 2 days are 0.30% 0.50% 0.75% 1%. A spread of 0.03% is 10% of that 0.30% move. Futures --- Tier 1 --- Gold => 0,03% Moves twice as much as FX --- Tier 2 --- Copper => 0,11% Moves 3 times as much as gold, 6 times FX. Oil => 0,07% Moves a little more than gold I think? Maybe 1,5-twice as much. --- Tier lol dis a joke man? --- Silver => 0,30% TOO DAMN HIGH NatGas => 0,33% Moves alot, but still too high. Cryptocurrencies The volatility at the time is non existant for crypto but it will change so I am looking at it anyway, for the day this changes (I get spammed with alerts every day for FX and see moves over and over and over, crypto? Something I might see 30 times a month with FX I might see once a time with crypto. Just look at the charts.) So usually the commissions are the same for all, on Binance without BNB it is 0.1%. Crypto moves are 3% 5% 7.5% 10% etc (with bigger risk thought). On Kraken it is going to be more or less the same as Binance, it depends on your volume. On Bittrex Polo etc it is higher (unless it changed). If you are taker you got higher fees + a little spread. So if it moves 10 times as much as FX (when it moves I mean), you dive 1% by 10, BUT remember you will pay it twice (go long and take profit). So 0.2% / 10 = 0.02% Which places Crypto between Tier 2 and Tier 3. Same as a GBP pair or Copper. Copper moves as much as Bitcoin too or almost as. Pretty much you can trade either and have the same experience minus the sideways and armies of bagholders telling you what a fool you are for not accumulating with Copper. Indices I do not have the values with me but alot are super low, with DAX the lowest and NASDAQ second, maybe the euro thing too. The big indices are tier 1. UK and French ones I think are tier 1 too. The surprise for alot of people would be that Dollar vs Yuan is the one with the lowest spread. Every one is talking about how many pounds per pip and how many pips they take because they are obssessed with how much money they will make and really bad at math. That is not what matters. What matters is USDCNH has the lowest spread and is the most profitable thing to trade in the whole universe if everything else is equal. * It depends WHEN you look at USDCNH thought... At the time, I am fully focussed on trading FX perfectly before I move back to anything else. I only trade the tier 1 to 3 as well of course, as the mighty USDYUAN. So this is my watchlist and what I am trading at the moment, 16 of them: FX:EURUSD,FX:USDJPY,FX:AUDUSD,FX:USDCAD,FX:GBPUSD,FX:USDCHF,FX:USDMXN,FX:USDCNH,FX:EURJPY,FX:GBPJPY,FX:EURCAD,FX:GBPAUD,FX:GBPCAD,FX:EURNZD,FX:EURAUD,FX:EURCHF I really want to trade gold and copper again, but for now I am focussed on perfecting a new strategy (I already had one before but I wanted to master a new one... I cannot help it I am too competitive...). Then I will add Futures again, and then go look at crypto, which might have stopped being unbearably pointless by then. I think we get a mighty dump in the next weeks, but that will not mean the volatility is back, just a mighty dump a sharp bounce, and then back to boredom for months or even years. I am not interested in looking at stocks. Open a few hours a day with only the first and last hours being worth spending time on? Haha no than you! I would rather do macro economics and trade indices. I cannot be bothered with the latest FOMO news and this mighty stock that will make idiots millionaires GUARENTEED.
Education
by MrRenev
1
RV Simplifed - Krümel’s VoodooRV Simplified: I get this question all the time, and even though the concept is simple, many people have a hard time getting their heads around it. Here is snapshot of above at time of publish. Sept 19, 2018, 7:30am ET. As the above LIVE chart will not last more than a day.. accurately. ——————- Q- When DXY falls, WTI follows right? A- No.. they fall and rise at different rates, on some Timeframes they will be inverted (say 10min) while on 4hr they will both trend in same direction. I look at the value of oil in Dollar , as well as other currencies. But oil is priced in dollars.. so it will always gravitate to that level. This is based on the amount of volumes being traded in other currencies. (I believe) . Q- So having a weaker pound, yen and eur will equate to oil price going up as we get more dollars? right? A- Sure.. and vice verse.. Let’s say nobody trades oil for 1 hr. But during that time the Doller dropped by 10%! Those wanting to buy oil from you in EUR, would need to pay 10% more to keep you even, or you would need to sell at 10% loss. BUT -If I’m buying from you and in dollar. Price doesn’t change as we are both using dollars. - Extreme example. So the price of oil is based on what buyer is willing to pay.. if those in U.K. (above example) are willing to pay the 10%, but most of the buyers are in US. The price will only go up buy the amount of volume those U.K. buyers represent. Now do that for EUR, YEN, GBP, and Doller.. that’s RV! Lastly - I treat SPX like a currency (normalized to dollar) SPX is a great scale on daily movement. Not always coupled but use 2 day range to set scale. I think this has to do with the ETFs and truly they are the volume in PaperOil.
TVC:USOILEducation
by BigEz
1
Broad market update: DeleveragingI think we might be about to see deleveraging in the market, judging by the action in the yen, together with Gold rising on falling $VIX, while $SPX peaks, but fails to advance further after $VIX fell slightly. I suspect mid term election woes plus all the barrage of bad news related to trade wars and other topics might push investors into cash. Personally I've sold all my holdings except for my positions in gold and $TSLA, and will look into rebuying once a bottom is clearly spotted in the broad market. For now, I will focus on determining if this thesis is correct, and if so, look into maximizing my gains in the gold rally that might emerge from here. Gold hit a monthly support level, got oversold, whilst being in a monthly uptrend and flashed a huge buy signal from the Commitment of traders report data, whilst the daily trend ended, forming a potential reversal setup. Risk/reward is optimal on the long side now. I will scale into the trend as we get more and more confirmation and other trend continuation signals later on. Targets for it are as high as 1550, if we confirm a monthly T@M signal eventually. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
FX:XAUUSDEducation
by IvanLabrie
12
Whats going with Oil nowadays?Been long since I touched this, just compiling articles from the net to make sense of whats going on in the Oil market. Feel free give your own opinions. Venezuela Crisis, Iran sanctions, rising demands, tightening supplies, these factors have drive up Oil prices to their highest level in over three years in May. To address potential supply shortfalls, Saudi Arabia as well as top producer Russia were in discussion of raising oil production by an estimated volume of 1 million bpd. Oil prices started declining on Thursday, 24th May 2018. Market have since then been focused on the OPEC meeting held in 22 – 23 June that could lead to major oil producing nations to pump more crude to address the supply concerns. Ahead of the official decision, signs and analyst estimates reveal that actual increase in production would only be between 600,000 to 800,000 bpd, less than what OPEC was aiming to restore. The actual increase in fact was only 700,000 bpd because several countries that had suffered production declines would struggle to reach full quotas. Since actual increase is actually less than the estimated increase, market sentiment of an oversupplied market reduced and we see oil prices recovering. However, a rising output in Saudi Arabia and Russia and an escalating trade disputes between the United States and other major economies caused raised a concern on the trade balance of the market and oil prices plunged on 2nd Jul early Monday trading. There has been an uncertainty about how much oil supply will be added to the market given the increase in outputs from Saudi Arabia, Russia and further Trump’s tweet on Saudi Arabia's King agreeing to pump more oil, up to 2,000,000 barrels, made things worse causing greater concerns of an oversupplied market. OPEC reported that its output increased in June, as the group's top producer pumped at its highest level since the end of 2016. Oil Supply outage concerns eases have left oil plunging as well. Libya resolved a major disruption to its crude exports and Tripoli-based National Oil Corp (NOC) lifted a force majeure on four Libyan oil ports, saying production and exports from the terminals would "return to normal levels in the next few hours." A restoration level would lead Libyan production to produce at its full output level of 1.28 million bpd (compared to now 527,000 bpd). US trade actions against China and the European Union sparked concern about a global trade war that could undermine economic growth and crimp future demand. These trade tensions rose further as President Trump threatens tariffs on another $200 billion of Chinese goods. If trade tensions rise further, and given other uncertainties, it could weigh on business and consumer sentiment. This may then start to negatively impact investment, capital flows and consumer spending, with a subsequent negative effect on the global oil market.
FX:UKOILEducation
by akenii