Silver Explodes - A Lesson To Track Shifts In Order FlowHey traders,
In today’s analysis, it’s hard to ignore Silver following the 🚀explosive🚀 8%+ move up.
Let’s unpack the action as of late via the OFA script :
To do so, I am not going to apply any subjective type of analysis such as drawing trendlines, counting waves based on what way the wind blows, or any other form of guessing game…
Instead, we let the formation of fractal structures (objective measure of moves) create the pathway from which we can all make decisions. Fortunately, there is no need to engage in laborious manual work?
Why? The OFA script has all of us covered. So, with that in mind, what can we observe in the silver market?
What recurring pattern do you notice? Clue - Pay attention to the visual Ms and Ws type pattern forming…
These patterns entail, as stated in the chart, “dynamic fractal-based order flow cycles where a decreasing involvement in one direction (depicted by cycle/wave/line counts leads to a predictable move in the opposite direction seeking out the next equilibrium area, in most instance, with potential profits as a by-product…”
If you are into disseminating order flow, nothing I’ve seen beats the objectivity in analysis one can carry out via the formation of structures derived off fractal structures. Note, the chart ignores the dominant trend and simply focuses on the M and W patterns. Can you imagine if you start to align trading in the direction of just simply the dominant trend in the higher timeframes + proper risk management? Let you fantasise with that!
Remember the two key main features of the OFA script:
Magnitude: A major clue that will help determine the health of a trend is the type of progress by the dominant side in control of the trend. We need to ask the following question: Are the new legs in the active buy-sell side campaign as identified by the script increasing or decreasing in magnitude?
Velocity: When it comes to the distance the price moves, the magnitude is only ½ the equation. The other ½ has to do with the velocity of the move or the speed. Was the new leg created after a fast and impulsive move? Or did price make a new low or high with the movement being sluggish, compressive and taking too long to form? A good rule of thumb is to count the number of candles it took to achieve a new leg.
DISCLAIMER: This post contains commentary published solely for educational and informational purposes. This post's content (and any content available through links in this post) and its views do not constitute financial advice or an investment or trading recommendation, and they do not account for readers' personal financial circumstances, or their investing or trading objectives, time frame, and risk tolerance. Readers should perform their own due diligence, and consult a qualified financial adviser or other investment / financial professional before entering any trade, investment or other transaction.
Commodities
USOIL 3rd OCTOBER 2022 - COMBINATION STRATEGYUSOIL Combination strategy with a Trendline, Unfilled Order (UFO) and Psychological level.
Trend is a movement that shows where the market is moving. The term "trend" in everyday life is often used to express a situation, where something is in vogue or is gaining public attention.
As you know, a trendline is a tool that can be used to recognize the direction of a trend. Therefore, a trendline can serve as both Support (in an uptrend) and Resistance (in a downtrend). Trend line, Its function as a technical tool does not need to be doubted. Besides being able to help identify trends, this tool can also be used to find entry points. In looking for entry points, you can use bounce and breakout opportunities. remember "the trend is your friend". Believe it or not, in forex trading, the trendline is one of the friends that can help you to follow the direction where the market is moving.
This trend movement forms a series of sequential waves with the following levels:
Peak (High/H),
Higher peak (Higher High / HH)
Lower peak (Lower High / LH )
Valley (Low/L)
higher valley (Higher Low / HL )
Lower valley (Lower Low / LL)
By knowing the support and resistance levels, a trader can minimize risks and maximize profits. During a downtrend, a trendline can serve as resistance. But conversely, during an uptrend, the trendline can function as support. In finance market, a psychological level, is a price level in technical analysis that significantly influences the price of the underlying security, commodity or derivative. Usually, the number is something "easy to remember," like a number that is rounded up.
Meanwhile, Unfilled order is a shipment of orders that have not been fulfilled and inventory reported by domestic manufacturing companies. historically it can be seen that the balance between buyers and sellers is broken due to high volatility.
for example in the case of US30 23rd AUGUST 2022
Inflation & Interest Rate Series / Dollar and Gold I have started this inflation and interest rate series, in our last video, we discussed "Inverted Yield". Today will be discussing the relationship between:
. Inflation
. Interest rate
. Dollar and
. Gold
Today's Content:
• Why with higher interest rates, it strengthens the USD
• Is USD the strongest currency? If not, then who?
• Strategy to counter inflation
• Interest rate higher, but a lower USD?
Dollar Index:
. Measure the value of the dollar against a basket of six foreign currencies.
. These are: the Euro, Swiss franc, Japanese yen, Canadian dollar, British pound, and Swedish krona.
. With the increase of money supply over the decades, it causes currencies dilution. When currencies weaken, inflation follows.
COMEX Gold
0.1 = US$10
1.0 = US$100
10 points = US$1,000
Disclaimer:
• What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker.
• Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises.
Stay tuned for our next episode in this series, we will discuss more on the insight of inflation and rising interest rates. More importantly, how to use this knowledge, turning it to our advantage in these challenging times for all of us.
GoldViewFX - GVFX GOLDTURN RANGE BREAKER SETUP Hey Everyone,
This is a basic yet a strong Goldturn Trading Setup in step-by-step stages. Our personal signals in VIP use an algo generated weighted Goldturn setup for more pinpoint accuracy, which is the more advanced version of this and for obvious reason we can't share this here.
1 - Draw a Goldturn on the previous days Highest point for Resistance
2 - Draw a Goldturn on the previous days Lowest point for Support
3 - Wait to now see current day price action and look to see, which level EMA5 breaks - Support or Resistance?
4 - In this example previous days Goldturn low is broken with EMA5
5 - Once EMA5 breaks level by crossing over, we now wait for a 1H candle close after the cross. This is the confirmation lock candle.
6 - Next candle is entry candle - we can see a 450-pip movement from entry. We advise to take profit at 50 pips or next Goldturn, which is a likely target or move SL and trail the movement to catch the entire breakout.
Please don't forget to like the post, it helps us bring more quality content to you all.
GoldViewFX
XAUUSD TOP AUTHOR
US FEDERAL interest rate, ImpactionsThe Federal Reserve announces it frankly. We don't know if raising the interest rate will lead to an economic recession, and this is the only way to stop inflation!
The probability of a recession is 99.9%,
-According to the Head of Fixed Income in the Fund Management Division at Bank of Montreal, BMO.
- Bank of Montreal this month, expected inflation to be 8.3%, and in fact, the inflation data came out the same as its prediction.
The US Federal Reserve is the most tight-lipped among central banks and the preference for the dollar
🛑 Gold prices continue to decline with the rise of the dollar and expectations that the Federal Reserve will continue to raise interest rates.
Powell: How much pain depends on the timeline for the 2% inflation target
P owell: In the housing market, we have to undergo a correction to return to normal price growth
Inflation forecasts according to the Federal Reserve:
2022: 5.4%
2023: 2.8%
2024: 2.3%
2025: 2.0%
best regards
[/b ]Srosh Mayi
GOLD - The Entire Wave Caught 🔥In March this year, we posted a higher timeframe analysis where we identified that price was in wave 4 and that we were in an ABC correction. See full post below:
Once we identified where we are in the wave sequence, it just came down to counting the waves correctly and trading according to our trading rules.
We know that Wave C consists of 5 waves and follows the impulse schematic. Waves 1, 3 and 5 have 5 waves. Waves 2 and 4 have 3 waves. Ofcourse there are complexities where there are variations of waves within waves. However, once you understand the fundamental, you can slowly work your way down to lower timeframe and know whats next. That is exactly what we did. We followed the basic fundamental rules of Elliott Waves and worked our way through the entire wave C.
How do we enter?
Our entries are almost always trendline break entries. A trendline break tells us that momentum is shifting in the other direction and there are strict parameters for entry and stoploss which we don't deviate from.
Entry: Break of trendline
Bullish entry stoploss: below the candles once trendline breaks
Bearish entry stoploss: above the candles before the trendline breaks
If you go through the ideas in the chart, you will see that our entry is almost always trendline break entries. People may say trendlines do not work - sometimes it doesn't... if not used correctly. We mostly use trendlines when a correction is already formed. Using a trendline here to catch the breakout is perfect.
The market isn't static. Things change. You will see that whilst the overall analysis remained the same, the lower timeframe analysis changed as moves overextend and its our job as traders to adapt to these changes.
Do let us know what you think.
As always, trade safe!
Why Rice Prices Determine the Direction of Interest Rates?Recently, I received questions asking my opinion on their borrowing cost, if they should go for fixed or float rates. We somehow know there is inflation, but not exactly sure how long it will last and how bad it will get. Because higher inflation leads to higher interest rates.
While I cannot advise them as I do not have a banking license to do so. However, I can point them to the commodity markets, I hope by doing so, it can help them to understand and read into the direction of interest rates with greater clarity.
Background on edible commodities:
Rice is a staple in the diets of more than half of the world’s population, especially in Latin America, Asia, and the Middle East. Annual production of milled rice tops 480 million metric tons, which makes it the third most-produced grain in the world after corn and wheat.
An increase in rice prices or edible commodities, it will really add pressure to the existing global inflationary pressure. Hardship will be more intense especially compare to other commodities like crude oil.
In short, people can still live with some inconvenience without cars, but not without food.
Therefore, when food prices become much more expensive, the central banks immediate and urgent measures is to counter it by rising interest rates.
Content:
. Why edible commodities determine the direction of interest rates?
. Technical studies
. How to hedge or buy them?
Rice Market:
91 Metric Tons
$0.005 = US$10
Example -
$0.01 = US$20
$18.00 = 1800 x US$20 = US$18,000
From $18 to $19 = US$10,000
If you are trading this market for the short-term, do remember to use live data than delay ones.
Disclaimer:
• What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker.
• Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises.
Your mindset is EverythingYour mindset is everything.
Believe it can be your reality. Unbelief will make you quickly derail this with all kinds of thoughts.
If you don't believe you can ever trade 7-8 figures and more, you will never get to trade it.
Question you should be asking is, does this logic work? Can I repeat this same process on any pair in the market place?
That will be Intelligence in display instead.
How? Manage it in a manner that does not elevate it as the Master of your house. You are the Master of your house and your house is Trading your model. If you allow a single loss to decide your continuation as a Trader or belief in your model to diminish, you are not the Master of your house... you have given that role to your loss.
Where is the strength or logic in this? It escapes sound reasoning and invites defeat. More than defeat... it is surrender. You are essentially saying that your next trade has to be profitable or "else" you aren't ever going to succeed. You do not admit this at the time you enter the trade... but the leverage and mindset about the absence of a stop loss, come hell or high water you will take something out as a gain. Leaving no room to permit imperfection... and you wonder why you are stressed in the trade?
The sound logic is this...
"I can accept a result that is not favorable. If I follow my model, manage the risk impeccably, manage the position and take partials along the way... I will be fine. Or "else", I will need to endure needless pain and exaggerated drawdown, of which I was the sole responsible party."
See the difference there? One mindset says... "I have to win or else I fail entirely" and the other recognizes the risk of not following sound Trade & Risk Management protocols and owns the responsibility. The second mindset is open to imperfection and it sees the losses as a transaction without gain... nothing more. The first mindset sees any loss as the death blow that ends their Trading career.
Technicalities in the marketplace are useless without having a proper mindset.
Choices... we all have them. Which mindset do you want to hold fast to in this career?
Choose wisely.
Your mindset is everything.
what TRADER are you on weekend days?Good Day Constant Reader...
I hope this day has received you well and in good health.
It is Saturday... once again.
This is the time to reflect on what you learned, albeit via pain or pleasure. Take experience from the enduring of your development... it will serve you well later on.
It feels different at various stages of your learning. Uncertainty will be a resurfacing concern as you discover your unique model... but you can't rush it.
The reason it takes more time to get it, is the individual that you are is very complex. Trading aren't complex, the letting go of unrealistic growth rates early on is the major hurdle.
The more time you give yourself to develop a confidence in yourself, not me, not what I can or can't do... the better chance you stand.
The submitting to at least 18 months of structured learning and practice in a simulated environment is key. This can't be overstated.
Far too often... the ill-prepared Trader incorrectly assumes that trading concepts are flawed and they look past their own deficiencies.
That is why 18 months is what I state is the lowest time horizon when endeavoring to learn my craft. You won't see the many opportunities your personality flaws... yes your flaws... will manifest and derail your development and delay your success.
Everyone is human and prone to do it wrong... even me. However, this somehow gets overlooked by excited new Trader who want to imagine owning the world in a few weeks or months. This is neither practical or realistic.
You need time to experience drawdown, periods of confusion, periods of no trading while markets are in transition states and risk is high. No educators teach like this but me. I do not sugar-coat it and say you will understand this is 3 weeks or months... because you won't.
Like everything in this world, there are varying results and you get what you put into it. How many Tiger Woods are their in golf? Despite the legions of golf enthusiasts that play the game?
Not every golfer will rise to Tiger's greatness but the wise understand they do not need to be like or equal to Tiger to succeed.
Be content with enough and submit to an honest attempt in learning properly.
so many lazy people come and when they didn't fix their personal issues, they quit. This is sad, but they were warned and instructed before and along the way... how to train, study and to expect delayed gratification.
Everyone wants the six pack abs but nobody wants to exercise and remove the junk food to get them. Then the regime is slated as scam, fraud or not as described... and they chase another fad diet program.
Never learning, never improving or even giving themselves the proper chance to develop. This is the revolving door of trading.
The tune has not changed... it is hard to overcome yourself. No matter what snake oil salesmen tell you, there is no short cut or alternative route to getting it.
No indicator, harmonic, retail - none of that removes the requirement to understanding the financial calendar year. How seasonal impacts affect these markets.
How can a one week boot camp or three month program properly prepare you for that? In short... it can't.
Mental baggage is real and most of us bring lots of it to the trading business. Most can't admit their own flaws or shortcomings and they never make it. They spent thousands in different courses and waste a lot of time... cheating themselves.
Let's be honest Folks...
Trading is easy. It is a question of three options.
1) Do I Buy "this" now?
2) Do I Sell "this" now?
3) Do I sit still right now?
Trading profitably requires a model that comfortably defines what and when... for you, not everyone who sees your model, just "You".
this write up belongs to my mentor ICT hopefully you find it useful also.
Why Crude Oil is Trending Higher Again, Breaking Above US$100In this tutorial, I will explain both its fundamental and technical reasons for crude oil likely to break above and stay above US$100.
I am having two portfolios at all times, one for long-term investing and the other for short-term trading.
For the long-term I am mindful the current global inflationary pressure is real and it may last many months or even years ahead.
Therefore, my current investment mandate:
• U.S. stock markets – To trade them
• Commodities – To buy them
Disclaimer:
• What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker.
• Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises.
For your reference:
NYMEX Crude Oil
$0.01 = US$10
Example:
From $94.00 to $100.00
(10000-9400) x US$10 = US$6,000
BULL & BEAR FLAG PATTERNSBULL FLAG
This pattern occurs in an uptrend to confirm further movement up. The continuation of the movement up can be measured by the size of the of pole.
BEAR FLAG
This pattern occurs in a downtrend to confirm further movement down. The continuation of the movement down can be measured by the size of the pole.
Please don't forget to like, comment and follow to support us,
GoldViewFx
XAUUSD TOP AUTHOR
BASIC MONEY MANAGEMENT - LOT SIZE - REVERSAL - ACCOUNT SIZEHey Everyone,
A repost to remind newbies of some basic money management fundamentals.
We see too many new traders trade with random lot sizes with no understanding on the impact it has on account sizes, which result in not only losses but BLOWN accounts. This post is by no means a risk or money management strategy but more so just basics on the movement of reversals and how the lot sizes impact the value of your account during this reversal.
Trading with the right lot sizes allows a trader to manage their account/money when the trade goes against them. The right size allows a trader to move a range without blowing their account and without seeing their account reverse to the point of no equity. This type of trading gives traders anxiety and in return this anxiety impacts trading psychology . This then has a ripple effect and impacts your trading decisions and analysis.
The example we show on the chart is an entry of SELL that reverses by 380 PIPs. This movement happened in literally 2 candles (1hour candles) , so in two hours the price from entry reversed by 380 pips. This example then shows what this equates to in monetary value dependent on lot sizes.
The example shows that anyone with a £500 account trading this movement with a lot size of 0.20 would have blown their account.
Lot size usage should be based on the size of your account for example;
£500 size account - we will only use 0.01 size lot sizes with maximum deployed total no more than 0.05. This will allow an account to survive volatile movements. Also using stop losses on top of this setup further strengthens the risk management.
£1000 size account - we will use 0.02 lot sizes with maximum deployed total no more then 0.10 any given time.
£2000 size account - we will use 0.03 lot sizes with maximum deployed total no more then 0.30 any given time.
£5000 size account - we will use 0.06 sizes with maximum deployed total no more then 0.50 any given time.
Basically 0.10 for every £1000, as the total deployed usage allows us enough flexibility of movement on the chart and then using stop losses on top of this, gives us further control of our money management.
We hope this quick basic insight helps some of the newbies better manage their lot size usage.
Please like, comment and follow us to support our work, we really appreciate it!
GoldViewFX
XAUUSD TOP AUTHOR
WHAT IS BULL TRAP?📊
⚠️A bull trap is a false signal about an uptrend in stocks, indices or other stock assets, in which, after an impressive rally, the rate reverses and breaks through the previous support level. Such a change seems to "catch" traders or investors who acted on a buy signal, and brings losses on long positions. A bull trap can also be called a "saw" trend.
The opposite of a bull trap is a "bear trap", it occurs when sellers cannot push the price below the resistance level.
❗️A bull trap is a reversal of the exchange rate, due to which market participants hoping for an opposite price movement close positions with unexpected losses.
❗️Bull traps occur when buyers fail to continue the rally that has broken through the resistance level.
❗️Traders and investors may fall into bull traps less often if they analyze the probability of further growth after the breakdown using technical indicators and/or divergence patterns.
✅The essence of the concept
⏺A bull trap occurs when a trader or investor buys an asset that has broken through the resistance level – a generally accepted strategy based on technical analysis. Although there is often a rapid growth of the exchange rate after the breakdown, the price can quickly change direction. This situation is called a "bull trap" – traders and investors who bought the breakdown are "caught" in a trading "trap".
⏺It can be avoided if you observe additional signs of a level breakdown. In particular, the growth of above-average trading volume and the appearance of bullish candles after the breakdown can confirm that the price is likely to continue to rise. And a breakdown in which the volume decreases, or candlesticks with a small body – for example, the doji star – may be signs of a bull trap.
⏺From the point of view of psychology, bull traps occur when bulls are unable to continue the rally after the breakdown of the level, this may be due to the lack of momentum and/or profit taking. Bears, if they see discrepancies, may seize the opportunity to sell the asset and thereby push prices below the resistance level, which may trigger stop-loss orders.
⏺The best way to deal with bull traps is to recognize warning signs in advance, such as a low breakdown volume, and exit the deal as soon as possible. Stop losses, especially if the market is moving fast, can help in this and prevent you from making a decision under the influence of emotions.
❤️ Please, support our work with like & comment! ❤️
Triangle Patterns 📐
❗️The triangle is one of the most common and reliable figures of graphical analysis. This is a strong pattern that can bring you a lot of points of profit if you approach its trading correctly.
✅What is a triangle pattern?
⚠️A triangle pattern is a pattern formed on a price chart. It is usually identified when the tops and bottoms of the price move towards each other, like the sides of a triangle. When the upper and lower levels of the triangle interact with the price, traders expect a possible breakdown. Thus, many breakout traders use triangle formations to find entry points.
✅Symmetrical Triangle
A universal pattern can act both as a trend continuation figure and as a reversal figure. A symmetrical "Triangle" is formed by two converging support and resistance lines. It turns out such a picture - "bears" are gradually pushing the price down from the resistance line, "bulls" are pushing quotes up from the support line. As a result, one of them turns out to be stronger and the price breaks through the border of the symmetrical "Triangle", simultaneously collecting protective orders (Stop Loss / Stop) and pending orders. The position should be opened in the direction of the breakdown, after the price closes outside the boundaries of the symmetrical "Triangle".
If the upper limit of the "Triangle" is broken, we buy, limit losses — we put a Stop Loss for the nearest minimum of the "Triangle", the benchmark for working out is the value of H (in points) — the base of the "Triangle" (the largest wave in the "Triangle"). If the lower limit of the "Triangle" is broken, we sell, limit losses — We put a stop for the nearest maximum of the "Triangle", the benchmark for working out is the value of H (in points) — the base of the "Triangle" (the largest wave in the "Triangle").
✅Ascending Triangle
The pattern is a continuation of the upward trend, but sometimes it is possible to work in the opposite direction. An ascending "Triangle" has been formed between the horizontal resistance level and the ascending support line. In the course of the upward trend, the "bulls" rest against a strong resistance level, which they cannot immediately overcome. From this level there are pullbacks downwards — waves of an ascending "Triangle". But gradually the pullbacks become smaller and at some point the bulls, having bought all the bearish sell orders, break through this level up, collecting Stops and pending buy orders. After breaking through the upper boundary of the ascending "Triangle", purchases are recommended, the Stop is placed below the nearest minimum of the "Triangle", working out is the value of the base of the "Triangle" H (in points), this is the largest wave of the "Triangle".
✅Descending Triangle
The pattern is a continuation of the downward trend, but sometimes it is possible to work in the opposite direction. A descending "Triangle" is formed by two lines — a descending resistance line and a horizontal support level. During the downtrend, the "bears" stumble upon a strong support level, which they cannot break through immediately. This is followed by several pullbacks up from this level, during which a descending "Triangle" is formed. In the end, the "bears" sweep away all orders for the purchase of "bulls" and break through the support level down, collecting buyers' stops and pending sales orders. After breaking through the lower boundary of the descending "Triangle", sales are recommended, the Stop is placed above the nearest maximum of the "Triangle", the value of working out H is the size of the base of the "Triangle" — its largest wave.
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🔍Studying horizontal volumes🤔🔍Volumes are one of the most useful tools on the market, That gives the most objective information about the alignment of forces between buyers and sellers (with qualitative analysis, of course). It is necessary to learn how to correctly interpret volumes ( volume analysis) and the trader gets a powerful tool at his disposal. Add to this risk management and money management (without this, you will never succeed in the market) and get one of the most profitable strategies.
There are two types of volume: horizontal and vertical. And in this eduaction idea, we will get a little acquainted with horizontal volumes.
🧐 What is it?
Horizontal volumes are a histogram based on the number of trades made at a price level. Unlike vertical volumes, that tells us about the volume traded for the set time period, horizontal volumes show the volume traded at the price level. This tool will allow to identify highly probable reversals, as well as areas of support and resistance . Thanks to TradingView, everyone can use the horizontal volume indicator for free. Thank you so much🙌
📊 Horizontal volume indicator includes:
➡️ Value Zone/Area
➡️ VAH (value area high)
➡️POC (point of control)
➡️ VAL (value area low)
All of the above can be seen on the graph (marked on the graph above).
The Value Zone/Area is the so-called "body" of the histogram for the selected period and is formed in the place where 70% (by default) of the total volume has passed.
🟡 VAH (value area high) is the top line of the value area. The upper line of the value zone can play the role of resistance and support.
🔴 VAL (value area low) is the bottom line of the value area. Formed where volumes are declining. The lower line of the VAL value zone can also play the role of resistance and support.
You need to be very careful when the price approaches VAH and VAL❗️
🔵 POC (Point of Control) is the most important level. It is a support or resistance zone depending on where the price is above or below the POC. As long as the crowd has not formed an imbalance in the POC area, the price will move either higher or lower than the POC. At this time, it is better not to trade, and let the price decide, entering from a re-test of the formed balance.
📈 How to trade?
Remember that everything needs experience! You will need time to develop your strategy based on horizontal volumes or to include this tool in your existing arsenal. Analysis, observation and again analysis! Pay special attention to POC, this level is the most important and interesting in terms of opening a position. Here you should pay attention to the weekly POC and intraday.
On the charts above, you can see trades in Gold ( XAUUSD ) and Silver ( XAGUSD ) that were opened exactly from the POC week (previous). You can observe the results yourself. Of course, there are also losing trades, but with the observance of risk management and a systematic risk/reward ratio, success is guaranteed.
🔴 Conclusion
Horizontal volumes will help identify (but more confirm) support and resistance levels/areas. Near VAH, VAL and POC, one should be as careful as possible, as this is a good opportunity for a probable entry into a trade. We can call it a "creative process": you will definitely see and form many entry and strategy opportunities based on this.
😉 Thank you for reading and profitable trades ❗️
WHAT TYPE OF TRADER ARE YOU?👨🎓👩🎓
⚠️Who is a Trader?
✅A trader is a trader, a speculator, acting on his own initiative and seeking to profit directly from the trading process. This usually means trading securities (stocks, bonds, futures, options) on the stock exchange.
✅Traders are also called traders in the foreign exchange (including forex) and commodity markets (for example, "oil trader"). Trading is carried out by a trader on both the exchange and over-the-counter markets.
✅The trader should not be confused with other traders who carry out transactions at the request of clients or in their interests (dealer, broker, distributor).
❗️What kind of traders are there? Types of traders:
1️⃣Scalper
Scalping is a trading strategy that involves making a large number of transactions within a day. Scalpers make at least 10 trades a day. With an active market, professionals can make up to 100 trades. Scalpers play on small price fluctuations to get a small profit from each transaction. Often, a transaction can last less than a minute.
Scalping can be considered a profession. The scalper's workplace is his scalper terminal. Here he spends a full working day. Scalpers analyze the market by the glass, the tape of transactions and clusters, less often by charts. As a rule, scalpers do not use technical analysis indicators for analysis. The main working timeframes of the scalper are from 1m to 5m.
Many traders start with scalping. In theory, a scalper can seriously disperse a small deposit within a short time. Also, making a large number of transactions allows you to “fill your hand" faster. However, scalping requires a trader to be stress-resistant, disciplined and willing to learn from losses.
2️⃣Day Trader
Day traders also trade within the day. They do not transfer transactions “through the night”, closing positions during the day or trading session (depending on the type of market, stock or cryptocurrency). As a rule, day traders make 5-10 trades a day.
The market is analyzed through a glass, a tape of transactions, clusters and charts. Sometimes technical indicators are used. The working timeframes of day traders are from 5m to 1h.
This type of trading is less demanding on the trader than scalping. But it also requires stress tolerance and willingness to spend your day at the computer. It will not be possible to fully trade inside the day via the phone.
For successful trading, scalpers and day traders must adhere to strict risk management. They set the daily drawdown and determine the drawdown for each trade. As soon as a trader reaches the daily drawdown level, trading for the current day ends for him.
3️⃣Swing Trader
Swing trading is based on capturing one major movement in the market (one "swing" of the price). Its essence is to exit the transaction before the price goes back to correction.
Swing trading is different from day trading, which usually involves more frequent short positions and more active trading. It is also different from long-term investments and buy-and-hold strategies that take place over a long period of time.
Swing trading refers to medium-term trades ranging from a few days to weeks. This technique got its name because of the determination of the maximum and minimum of each oscillation. Its essence consists in opening medium-term positions on the asset, which are held from several days to weeks.
Choosing the time to hold a position in the market at the bottom or height of each medium—term trend is what distinguishes a swing trader from a day trader. Swing traders conduct extensive market research, be it fundamental or technical analysis.
Anyone can become a swing trader. Start by understanding the definition of what swing trading means, learn all the basics. and then start researching whether swing trading is right for you.
What type of trading do you prefer?
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What is LEVERAGE in Forex💰
❗️Leverage is a brokerage service that is a loan in the form of cash or securities provided to a trader to secure a transaction. The loan amount may exceed the amount of the trader's deposit by 10, 20, 100 or more times. By analogy with the law of physics, leverage works as a lever, enabling a trader to make deals that he would not be able to with his own funds alone. The maximum leverage on the exchange does not depend on the trader's desire and the broker's capabilities. It is calculated based on the risks established by the clearing center for each asset. For example, if the risk amount for any stock is set at 10%, a trader will be able to trade it with a leverage of 1 to 10. If the risk value is 30%, then it is impossible to get a leverage greater than 1 to 3.
Making transactions on the exchange using leverage is called margin trading. It is the conclusion of purchase and sale transactions using borrowed funds issued against the security of a certain amount, which is called margin. In other words, in order to use the leverage service, you must have a minimum amount on the deposit (set by the broker), which will be the collateral.
The amount of leverage in trading is the ratio of the amount of the trader's own funds to the amount of the transaction (1:100, 1:1000). For example, if this indicator is 1:500, it means that the broker provides a loan amount 499 times higher than the investor's deposit. At the same time, one part of the investor's funds and 499 borrowed funds are used in the transaction.
The word "credit" scares many away, but in fact there is nothing terrible in this concept. Leverage can indeed be called a loan in the usual sense of the word, but the interest on the use of borrowed assets is significantly less than the usual bank. When transferring the positions of the transaction to the next day, a commission is withdrawn from the account in the amount of the difference in the interest rates on the loan and the deposit - the so-called swap, which can be considered an analogue of the fee for using leverage.
The loss on the transaction is deducted from the trader's own funds, if as a result their volume becomes less than the permissible minimum margin value, the broker will send a notification that the money is running out and the bidder needs to either replenish the account or close the position. Such an alert is called a Margin Call. If no action is taken, the transaction will be closed automatically (Stop out).
✅How to trade with leverage
Leverage is a financial instrument that, with a competent approach, allows you to make large transactions and get a good profit even on small deposits. In order to use this tool correctly, follow the simple recommendations:
Focus on your own deposit. Calculate the risks based on the available amount.
It is better to use a small amount of borrowed funds, which will not allow you to lose all the money at once.
With any leverage size, never trade for the entire deposit. Ideally, one operation should account for 1-2% of the deposit amount.
Be sure to set Stop loss levels, this will help reduce risks.
⚠️IMPORTANT! Stop loss is an order that fixes the financial result when the price of the selected instrument reaches a certain level. The Stop loss parameter can be set before opening a position or after. But there is one important point: in a sale transaction, the specified level should be no less than the current price on the market, and in a purchase transaction - no more.
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#3 | Impulsive wave VS corrective waveDon't say you've been in the financial markets for more than a year and you still can't differentiate between these two waves!!!
Let me remind you again...
YOU WON'T BE A PROFESSIONAL ANALYST IF YOU CAN'T UNDERSTAND THE STRUCTURE OF WAVES YOU ARE LOOKING AT.
I'll assume you're familiar with Elliott waves and Dow theory, so I won't go into detail about the difference between an impulsive wave and a correction.
Instead of that...
There are too many types of waves... But, you're good to go if you can understand only these 7 waves.
Impulsive waves
12345 (Rare)
WXYXZ
WXY
Corrective waves
It may come as an ABC wave or an ABCDE. But, 99% of the time, it will give you one of these basic flag pattern.
Regular
Running
Expanding
Contracting
I will explain each of those patterns in detail if I see likes...
Comment below. Which one should we start with? corrective or impulsive waves?
Types of Orders & Their Features📚
⚠️One of the first things that novice traders should learn is how to use different types of orders. The exact number of orders available to you often depends on which broker you are going to use.
Learning how to use different types of orders correctly is part of comprehensive trading training.
❗️The most popular types of forex orders:
✅Market orders
A market order is probably the simplest and most common type of order. It is usually executed immediately by the broker if it has not arrived in too large a size or has been placed in fast-moving markets.
As the name implies, market orders include buying or selling a currency pair at the current market rate. Market orders can be used by a trader for long or short positions. They can also be used to close current positions by buying or selling.
One of the main advantages of market orders is that they are almost always executed. The disadvantage of using market orders is that you can get an unexpectedly unfavorable price if the market moves quickly against your position.
✅Limit orders
Whenever a trader wants to specify a lower or higher price at which an order should be executed, this type of order is called a limit order. Limit orders can be used to stop losses, as well as to fix profits.
The name of this type of order arises from the fact that the trader demanded that transactions concluded on his behalf be limited to transactions executed at the specified exchange rate or better.
In practice, however, limit orders are usually executed at the specified price, although a broker may offer a better order execution rate to impress a particularly good client.
Some traders like to use a certain type of limit order, which is called a Fill or Kill or FOK order. The first type of FOK order tells the broker to either fully execute the order at a certain price, or cancel it. The second type of FOK order instructs the broker to immediately execute all orders at the specified price, and then cancel all others. This last type of Fill or Kill order is most often used when trading large amounts.
✅Take Profit orders
The take profit order is one of the most common types of limit orders. As the name suggests, it is usually used by a trader who wants to liquidate an existing position with a profit. Therefore, the price level indicated in the take profit order should be better than the prevailing market rate.
If the trader's initial position is short, the take profit order will include the redemption of this short position at a price lower than the prevailing one in the market. Conversely, if they held a long position in accordance with the take profit order, it would be liquidated if the market moved up.
Traders may sometimes indicate that their take profit orders are of the "All or Nothing" or AON type. This means that the order must be either fully executed or not executed at all. AONs are used to prevent partial execution of orders, which may be considered undesirable.
Alternatively, traders can choose to partially fill in a smaller amount than the entire amount of the take profit order. This can be useful if the broker trying to execute the order can only execute part of the order at the exchange rate specified in the order.
✅Stop loss orders
A stop loss order is another very common type of order, usually used to liquidate an existing position. Such orders are usually executed as market orders as soon as the stop loss level is triggered when trading currency at this level.
In fact, when the market has gone against an existing position to a point and the exchange rate has reached the specified stop loss level, the stop loss order is executed and causes the trader to incur a loss.
However, a stop loss order limits the trader's further losses if the price continues to move in the same unfavorable direction. This makes stop loss orders an important part of risk management strategies for many traders.
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FALSE BREAK | Price Action Trading📊
⚠️How often have you opened a key level breakout trade, and then the price turned against you? False breakout happens quite often and it is a problem for many traders who buy at highs and sell at lows.
Breakout trading is a fairly popular and viable trading strategy. However, some breakouts often turn out to be false. This can be quite frustrating, not to mention that it can often lead to a losing trade.
However, in many cases, an experienced trader can analyze the market situation and react to it accordingly. False breakouts can make a profit if you know how to trade them correctly.
❗️A false breakdown is a situation when the price violates an obvious level, but then suddenly changes direction. When the initial breakout of the level occurs, many traders open a trade in the direction of the breakdown. These traders are trapped when the price reverses, which triggers a series of stop losses. New traders are also entering the market, and this puts additional pressure on the price. This often turns the price into a new trend, the opposite of the initial breakout.
A breakout that turns out to be false is a sign of strength in a downtrend or weakness in an uptrend.
As you can see, a false breakout can easily cause significant losses for any trader.
Some traders develop their entire strategy around trading false breakouts, as this can be a very powerful trading approach. Some of the best trades happen when market players fall into a trap and their stops start to work.
✅How to find patterns of false breakouts?
🟢If you do not learn how to correctly identify false breakouts, you will not be able to trade them profitably. For example, there will be situations when the price returns to the breakout point, and only then continues its movement.
🟢One of the ways to detect false breakouts is to monitor the volume. Real breakouts are usually accompanied by strong indications of trading volume at the time of the breakout. When this volume is absent, there is a higher probability that the breakout will not happen.
🟢Thus, if the trading volume is low or it decreases during the breakout, a false breakout is likely to occur. In contrast, if the volume is large or it increases, a real breakdown is likely.
🟢It is also useful to monitor not only the trading volume but also the price movement on the lower timeframe. In many cases, you will see that the price makes a very sharp pullback on the lower timeframe, which is not visible on the higher timeframe.
✅False Breakout Trap
🟢After all, many trading textbooks say that a breakout can be considered confirmed when a candle closes above the resistance level. However, the price moves in your direction for a while and then turns 180 degrees. As a result, you have a stop loss triggered.
🟢The false breakout trap includes several candlesticks, usually 1-4, that go beyond the key support or resistance level. Such breakouts occur after a strong movement, as the market has reached an important level, but the price momentum still retains its strength.
Have you ever been trapped by a false breakout?
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TRIPLE TOP PATTERN | Tips on How to Trade it📚
❗️A triple top is a type of graphical pattern that is used in technical analysis to predict the reversal of an asset's price movement. Consisting of three peaks, the triple top signals that the asset may no longer be growing, and that lower prices are possible.
Triple tops can occur on all timeframes, but in order for the model to be considered a triple top, it must occur after an uptrend. The opposite of a triple is a triple bottom, which indicates that the asset price is no longer falling and may rise higher.
✅How the triple vertex works
The triple top pattern occurs when the price of an asset creates three peaks at approximately the same price level. The area of peaks is resistance . The pullback between peaks is called the swing minimum . After the third peak, if the price falls below the lows of the fluctuation, the model is considered completed, and traders expect further downward movement.
Three consecutive peaks make the triple peak visually similar to the "head and shoulders" pattern; however, in this case, the average peak is almost equal to the other peaks, and not higher. The model is also similar to the double top model, when the price touches the resistance area twice, creating a pair of high points before falling.
Triple tops are traded in almost the same way as the "head and shoulders" figures.
Let's say the stock price peaks at $119, drops to $110, rises to $119.25, rolls back to $111, rises to $118, then falls below $111, which is a triple top and signals that the stock is probably moving down.
✅The value of the triple vertex
Technically, the triple top pattern shows that the price cannot break through the peak area. Translated into real events, this means that after several attempts, the asset cannot find many buyers in this price range. When the price drops, it forces all traders who bought during the pattern to start selling. If the price cannot rise above the resistance, there is limited potential for profit retention. As the price falls below the minimum of the fluctuation of the model, sales may increase as former buyers exit long positions and new traders open short ones. This is the psychology of the model and what helps fuel the sale after its completion.
No template works all the time. Sometimes a triple top is formed and completed, which makes traders believe that the asset will continue to fall. But then the price may recover and rise above the resistance area. In order to protect, a trader can place a stop loss on short positions above the last peak or above the recent maximum of the fluctuation within the model. This move limits the risk of a trade if the price does not fall, but instead rises.
✅Trading on Triple Top patterns
Some traders open a short position or exit long positions as soon as the asset price falls below the support of the model. The support level of the model is the most recent swing minimum following the second peak, or alternatively, the trader can connect the swing minima between the peaks with the trend line. When the price falls below the trend line, the figure is considered completed and further price decline is expected.
To add a confirmation of the model, traders will keep an eye on the large volume when the price falls through the support. The volume should increase, which indicates a strong interest in sales. If the volume does not increase, the model is more prone to failures (the price rises or does not fall as expected).
The pattern provides a lower target equal to the height of the pattern subtracted from the breakout point. This goal is approximate. Sometimes the price will fall far below the target, other times it will not reach the target.
⚠️Other technical indicators and graphical models can also be used in combination with the triple top. For example, a trader can watch the bearish crossing of the MACD after the third peak or the exit of the RSI from the overbought zone to confirm the price drop.
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Q3(3RD QUARTER) ANALYSIS FOR GOLD, BULLISH BEFORE BEARISH Hey guys.
I'm Martin Sylvester😅😅😅😅
Everything Charts.
I want to engage you a little.
If your chart is open.
You could use horizontal lines on the higher Timeframe like D1.
Something is really really nice there and I spotted it. I may be wrong but it's so sweet and I'll like to share it.
$2000 price
$1900 price
$1800 price
$1700 price
Each with 1000pips separation but really aligns to price movements on Gold.
I'm more of a round up number person when it comes to dissecting a chart.
So Gold found itself at $1800 and just spiked to $1790.
When Gold got to $2000, it spiked to a midpoint $2050 but $2000 is the main main part, it went down to $1900, patterned it's movement back to $2000, dragged down to $1800
From all indications, history repeats itself😅😅😅😅😅
We are likely to see a move to $1900 or $1950 cos for Gold to spike to $2050 but main price point is $2000, history will repeat itself from past data that it will get to $1900 and may possibly spike to $1950/$1960.
Then drop down as before...
When it spiked to $2050/$2060, what happened???
It dropped to $1900, made a Retracement to $2000 and dropped to $1800.
So let's see it this way..
Rally to $1900, spike to $1950/$1960, then a drop to $1700.
That's like 2000pips plus repeated on historical data of the charts..
Cos $2050/$2000 to $1800 is 2500pips move...
So if there's a Retracement to $1950/$1900, it will be another 2500pips move if we were to look at how data collides with algorithm and repeats itself.
2500pips decline from $1950/$1900 would be at exactly $1700 as predicted earlier.
Trade with caution but these are just speculations, I may be wrong (as I'll always say).
I'm open to corrections(as I'll always say).
If you can take your time to mark these price points, it will help with trades for Gold(XAUUSD).
Lest I forget, there are in-between reaction price points too that I know of that moves in 200pips difference.
Lemme list them starting from top to bottom
$2070
$2050(midpoint for $2000 and $3000)
$2030
$2010
$1990
$1970
$1950(midpoint for $1900 and $2000)
$1930
$1910
$1890
$1870
$1850(midpoint $1800 and $1900)
$1830
$1810
$1790
$1770
$1750(midpoint for $1700 and $1800)
$1730
$1710
$1690
$1670
$1650 (midpoint for $1600 or $1700)
Yours Truly,
Martin I. Sylvester
Financial Market Analyst
FIBONACCI TOOL | common reversal levels📊
⚠️Fibonacci levels are one of the most popular tools for analysis. These are price levels that are located in certain parts of the movement corresponding to the mathematical Fibonacci numbers.
✅What are Fibonacci numbers?
🟢In the XIII century, the famous scientist Leonardo of Pisa lived in the Republic of Pisa – the first major medieval mathematician in Europe. On the cover of one of his most famous works was attributed filius Bonacci (son of Bonacci). Hence the nickname Fibonacci.
🟢The Fibonacci numbers are a sequence of numbers derived from Leonardo's experiment on rabbits. The Pisan mathematician decided to find out how many pairs of rabbits will be in a fenced pen a year after the start of breeding (provided that there will be only one pair in the pen in the first month). In the third month, the cuts began to multiply recurrently – each subsequent number was equal to the sum of the previous two (1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, etc.).
🟢If any number from the sequence is divided by the previous one, you get a number tending to 1.61803398875… This number is the "golden ratio". In algebra, such a number is called the Greek letter phi. When dividing any number from the sequence by the following, the inverse of phi 0.618 is obtained. When dividing any number from the sequence by the number following one, 0.382 is obtained. In this form, Fibonacci numbers are much more familiar to traders.
✅Correction levels
🟢Correction (retracement) - movement against an existing trend. The correction "absorbs" part of the trend movement. Of the Fibonacci numbers, 38.2 are mainly used for correction levels (from the previous trend movement), 50%, 61,8%, 78,6%.
🟢Correction levels are based on candle wicks, in other words, on their maximum or minimum points. To build a correction level, you need to find a trend. Fibo levels can be asymmetrical, so it is especially important to pay attention to where the beginning and end of the wave on which the level is being built are located.
🟢On a downtrend, 0% at the bottom, 100% at the top. When ascending, the opposite is true. The most significant correction level is 61.8. When a breakdown of this level occurs, a new trend in the opposite direction usually begins. After that, it is necessary to build a new corrective level.
🟢Correction pattern – movement between minor correction levels. After such a move, the price usually moves to the key level of 61.8. 4 patterns are depending on which levels of correction the price concerns.
❗️Even if the skills of analyzing the state of the market by Fibonacci levels will not be a big advantage in trading, then in any case it is a great (and to some extent integral) experience of technical analysis. Fibo levels can be combined with a footprint, deltas, and other tools. The trader will understand only in practice if it is possible to benefit from this or not.
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