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If you think technical analysis does not work, look at this!I published this analysis on October 18, 2021. Today, you can see it hit the target zone! If you have no time to learn different tools in technical analysis, at least do yourself a favor and learn how to use regression channels! However, Regression channels are not pure technical analysis! It is actually a statistical tool..! Most quant funds use statistical models to open and close their position..! The most famous model is mean reversion! What Is Regression? Regression is a statistical method used in finance, investing, and other disciplines that attempt to determine the strength and character of the relationship between one dependent variable (usually denoted by Y) and a series of other variables (known as independent variables). Now, let's consider Y=Price and X=Time! Now, you should do the math..! But do not forget we have different types of regression models: Quadratic, Qubic, Sinusoidal, and logistic...etc. Look at these examples: Bitcoin: Solana: NFLX: USOIL:
NASDAQ:MSFTEducation
by Moshkelgosha
2
Processing Spreads Provide Fundamental CluesSome futures markets offer contracts that are related to others and are processed products of the commodity. Understanding the price relationships, history, and paths of least resistance of the processed product versus the original input can provide valuable insight into supply and demand fundamentals. Moreover, these relationships shed light on other related assets. Market structures are the pieces of a jigsaw puzzle Processing spreads are real-time supply and demand barometers The soybean crush spread Gasoline and distillate crack spreads Monitoring corporate profits There is so much data at our fingertips, but we need to understand how to use and interpret the information. Processing spreads are invaluable tools as they are critical variables for market calculus when forecasting the path of least resistance of prices. The crude oil and soybean futures markets offer liquid futures contracts in products that can reveal significant trends, warning signs, and calls to action. Anyone who undertakes a home improvement project knows that the job will not go well without the correct tools. Trying to hammer in a nail with a screwdriver is far from optimal. Tightening a bolt with an ax is a disaster. The best tool leads to the optimal result. The processing spread is one of the most critical tools in my investment and trading toolbox. Market structure are the pieces of a jigsaw puzzle In the world of commodities, market structure are integral pieces of a puzzle. When put together, they provide clues about the path of least resistance of prices as they reflect and can be real-time indicators of supply and demand fundamentals. A commodity’s market structure includes: Term structure- Price differentials for nearby versus deferred delivery periods. Location differentials- Price differentials for delivery of a raw material in different regions. Quality differentials- Price differentials for differing grades, sizes, or composition of the same commodity. Substitution spreads- The price comparison of one commodity for another that can serve as a substitute. Processing spreads- The margin or differential for refining or transforming one commodity into its products. Together, the various pieces that comprise a market’s structure create a picture that often points to higher or lower price paths. Processing spreads are real-time supply and demand barometers The processing spread is one of the valuable tools in an analysts’ toolbox. It tells us if demand for the products is rising or falling. Consumers often require the processed product instead of the raw commodity. The differential between prices of the input, the commodity, and the output, the product, is a critical fundamental measure. Narrowing processing spreads signal falling demand while widening spreads are a sign that supplies are not keeping pace with requirements. Since futures contracts prices are constantly changing, processing spreads can be volatile. When the commodity and product trade in the futures market, the differentials provide a unique supply and demand perspective for traders and investors. There can be many reasons for price variance in processing spreads. However, comparing them to historical levels can serve as real-time indicators of fundamental forces that determine the underlying commodity’s price direction when exogenous factors are not impacting the overall refining or treatment process. Many commodities do not offer futures contracts in the products. The soybean and crude oil markets are exceptions. The soybean crush spread Soybean futures trade on the CME’s CBOT division. Soybean products, soybean meal, and soybean oil also trade in the futures markets on the CBOT with separate and independent futures contracts. Soybean meal is a critical ingredient in animal feed, while soybean oil is cooking oil. Both have other uses. Processors crush raw soybeans into the two products; the oil is the liquid from the crushing process, while the meal is the solid substance. The soybean crush spread can be highly volatile. The monthly chart shows the soybean crush spread over the past fifteen years. The spread traded to a low of a quarter of one cent to as high as $2.1950. The low was in 2013 when soybean futures were trending lower from the all-time high in 2012 at $17.9475 per bushel. The high was in October 2014 when soybean futures were consolidating at lower levels. The move to the high was because consumers bought soybean products at lower prices around the $10 per bushel level. More recently, the crush spread signaled that soybean futures had run out of downside steam. After trading to a high of $16.7725 per bushel in May 2021, the oilseed futures fell below $12 in October. When soybeans were on the high in May, the crush fell to a low of 52.75 cents. At high soybean prices, consumers backed off buying the oilseed products, leading to a price correction that took the price below the $12 per bushel level in October. Meanwhile, falling prices caused demand for products to return. The crush spreads traded to the most recent high at $1.9050 during the week of October 18. The rising crush spread was a sign of robust demand that lifted the raw soybean futures from the recent low. The November soybean futures chart shows the rise from a low of $11.8450 to the $12.50 level. The price action in the crush spread was a signal that demand for products would lift the soybean futures price. The processing spread action signaled the price bottom over the past weeks. Gasoline and distillate crack spreads Crude oil refiners process the raw energy commodity that powers the world into products, gasoline, and distillates. The NYMEX futures market trades contracts in crude oil, gasoline, and heating oil. Heating oil is a distillate fuel that is a proxy for other distillates, including jet and diesel fuels. Refineries process crude oil into the oil products by heating them to different temperatures in a catalytic cracker. The price differential between the input, crude oil, and the output, the products, are “crack spreads.” Rising crack spreads point to increasing demand for oil products. When they fall, it is a sign of oversupply or weak demand. Crude oil futures reached lows in April 2020 during the height of the global pandemic’s impact on markets across all asset classes. The NYMEX crude oil futures weekly chart highlights the bullish trend since April 2020 as the energy commodity has made higher lows and higher highs. The weekly chart of the gasoline crack spreads highlights the bullish trend since March 2020. Gasoline is a seasonal commodity that tends to reach highs during the spring and summer months and decline during the winter as drivers tend to put more mileage on their cars during the warm months. However, at the $17.63 per barrel level at the end of last week, the gasoline crack spread was appreciable higher than the peak in October 2020, when it reached $11.62 per barrel. The gasoline crack spread has provided bullish validation for the path of least resistance of crude oil’s price. The weekly heating oil or distillate crack spread chart also displays a bullish trend. Distillates tend to be less seasonal than gasoline as jet and diesel requirements are year-round. At the $22.53 per barrel level at the end of last week, the heating oil crack was far higher than its October 2020 peak at $9.96 per barrel. The crack spreads have supported the rising crude oil price as they point to robust product demand. Monitoring corporate profits While processing spreads can provide insight into the path of least resistance of prices for commodities that are inputs, they are also real-time earnings indicators for companies that refine or process the raw commodities into the products. Refiners or processors tend to buy the input at market prices and sell products at market prices. The refiners and processors make significant capital investments in refineries or other processing equipment. They make or lose money on the processing spread. When they widen, they experience a profit bonanza; when they fall, times can get rough. When the spreads rise above the cost of the process, profits rise. Low processing spread levels can lead to losses. Valero (VLO) is a company that refines crude oil into oil products. The chart shows that the high in October 2020 was at $44.88 per share. In October 2021, VLO was over the $80 level at the end of last week. Rising crack spreads have lifted profits for the oil refiner. Archer Daniel Midland (ADM) and Bunge Ltd. (BG) are leading agricultural processors. Soybean processing is one of the many business lines for the two companies. The rising soybean crush spreads have lifted profits for the companies. In October 2020, ADM shares reached a high of $52.05 per share. At the end of last week, the stock was at the $66.22 level. BG shares reached a high of $60.50 in October 2020 and were trading at the $88.33 level at the end of last week. The rise soybean crush spreads at least partially supported rising profits and higher share prices for ADM and BG. Processing spreads are real-time indicators for the demand of the commodities that are the inputs. They are also real-time earnings barometers for companies that process commodities into products. Any tool that improves your ability to analyze markets is worth keeping in that toolbelt. --- The full article and spread charts are available using the link below. You can also sign up for the Monday Night Strategy Call below. Trading advice given in this communication, if any, is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that we believe are reliable. The author does not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects the author’s good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice the author provides will result in profitable trades. There is risk of loss in all futures and options trading. Any investment involves substantial risks, including, but not limited to, pricing volatility, inadequate liquidity, and the potential complete loss of principal. This article does not in any way constitute an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any investment, security, or commodity discussed herein, or any security in any jurisdiction in which such an offer would be unlawful under the securities laws of such jurisdiction.
NYSE:VLOEducation
by Andy_Hecht
3
Patterns of possible market correction or reversal 📊 Trend reversal or correction chart patterns signify a reversal of the current trend on the observed chart. In a bullish trend, a reversal formation indicates a highly probable reversal and initiation of a bearish movement. In a bearish trend, a reversal patterns leaves bullish clues and indicates a highly probable bullish accumulation. No matter bullish or bullish reversal pattern is spotted, The trigger that we are looking for is a breakout of the pattern’s support/resistance. ❤️ Please, support our work with like & comment! ❤️
Education
by SignalProvider
7
Trade everything that moves. The mechanics of the position set💡 Trading on the market can be regarded as a full-fledged struggle for the right to survival, where the main enemies are two factors, infinite randomness and time. By adapting your positions to what is happening, you risk becoming that very accident and you can only fight with time. The mechanics of the position set includes a theory about the direction of the price. Directivity theory The essence lies in the continuous direction of the price when the distance from the selected zone is inevitable. It is important to highlight the level and work as soon as the price reaches these values. How is the usual set of positions made Opening a position in a certain direction, as soon as the price goes against the desired forecast, closing with a stop loss, abandoning the transaction, searching for a new entry point, and trying to predict the direction, is an extremely difficult task. An example of a set of positions taking into account the theory of price orientation and risk control R The mechanics of position recruitment are based on clear and simple principles of operation, flexible thinking, quick adaptation to market sentiment. If you start to apply these mechanics in practice, you will notice how at first glance simple things are difficult to do the practice. There will be a feeling that nothing will work, there is no logical explanation for this, eventually, everything will be lost and a big chaotic high-speed car will crush you. This is the basic principle, as long as the market is such, you have very little chance of the death of capital. While large funds, investors, and someone else is fighting among themselves for huge movements, we do not necessarily have to accept their rules of the game and play on their territory in predicting the general and long-term direction of the market. You should think with your head and look for benefits primarily for yourself, taking into account all the nuances of what is happening. But how to be flexible? Constantly turning over a position is completely unprofitable, in the final execution, losses exceed the target profit. It is not at all clear where and when to put stops, overturns, and takeaways. This is where the risk control system R will help us She kicks down the door, breaks into our strategy, and, as the most important puzzle, falls into its rightful place! From my experience, the optimal risk per trade for a beginner is $10 With a smaller volume, there will simply be no motivation to work. But it is worth remembering that the deposit should not be extremely small, as it will not withstand a series of unsuccessful transactions For example, if the deposit is $100, 1R= $10, the power reserve is 10 stops, this is extremely small But with $ 400, you can already try, since the probability of getting 40 stops in a row is extremely small Example of risk calculation for a $1000 deposit The risk is reasonably low R=$10 Power reserve 1000/10=100 100 stops I recommend having a power reserve for the 200R series, from practice I can say that for training and the first results will be enough. All calculations are carried out without taking into account the commission A few tips for improving efficiency: - Do not risk your funds in vain, TradingView provides an excellent opportunity for paper trading (demo) completely free of charge, where you can try out any of your ideas and strategies. - Search for highly volatile tools and work with them. - Analyze the broker (exchange) for conditions, commissions play a particularly important role, pay attention and look for more favorable conditions. - Before you start trading, you should have a clear action plan, the most important component of which should be a risk control system. - Your stop should be tied only to the mathematical component of the transaction. ❤️ Please, support our work with like & comment! ❤️
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by UnitedSignals
15
ma5 breakout trading setup - Earlier last week we posted some basic MA5 setup action and how effective it is in gold setups. Today we show you how a simple trading setup that you can use to draw strong levels and how to trade with them. Support and resistance can be drawn in many ways and often traders find what works for them and use that method. This is a method we use to create strong levels of support and resistance lines that get respected well in trading gold. We draw a line where the MA5 average creates a turn angle. We then wait to see how this level is challenged and broken. When the ma5 average line breaks this level, we wait for a 1H candle to close after, as confirmation of the challenge being broken. We can then place an entry on the next candle opening or from a reversal and target a capture of 200 pips or some of our experienced traders will target exit at the next level. If this is over 1000 pips then we use strong money management techniques to baby sit the trade. As the weeks go by we will start to build on these trading setups. Please support my team here to provide more knowledge on this platform. We have a strong reputation in the trading world but new to sharing on this platform. support us with follows and likes so we can build on sharing our setups with you.
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by Goldviewfx
3
McGinley Dynamic IndicatorMcGinley Dynamic Indicator: It was invented by John R. McGinley. It would automatically adjust itself in relation to the speed of the market. This future can be very helpful as it is sometimes difficult to choose the right period for the MA. It also helps to account for the gap that often exists between prices and moving average lines. Can't be used as a single indicator and we need to combine this with other indicators or another McGinley indicator. Price actions respect moving averages because so many traders use them in their strategies. Because of the formula, the Dynamic Line speeds up in down markets and moves more slowly in uptrends. One wants to be quick to sell in a down market, yet ride an up-market as long as possible.
Education
by apadanaforex
DIVERGENCE IS CONVERGENCE ✅There are several main ways to work on the stock exchange in trading. Technical analysis, for example, is recognized as effective and is used by almost all market participants. But the disputes about indicator analysis do not stop for a long time. Some traders talk about the backwardness of the method because trading operations are performed faster every day. Others build successful strategies based on one or more indicators. Still, others combine two methods to find successful market entries and get an effective tool for making money on the stock exchange. Divergence is often used for this, which will be discussed below. 🔴What is divergence Divergence is one of the strongest signals that indicator analysis can demonstrate. To obtain it, one of the possible oscillators is used. The divergence conditions are that the curve of the price chart diverges from the indicator data. For example, with an uptrend, the price continues to move up, while the oscillator shows a decrease in the interest of the main participants of the trading system. In this case, we should expect a change in the direction of the price. Such a change does not always mean a new trend. Sometimes it can be a normal correction or price fluctuation. To determine the exact forecast, the methods of technical analysis of divergence are used. The result largely depends on the timeframe, sometimes on the support and resistance levels. ⚠️There is also an opposite process — convergence when the price of an asset decreases, and the indicator shows growth. This process is called convergence. Both signals are used in the Forex market, but they are known collectively as "divergence". There are bullish and bearish divergences in the Forex market. In addition, divergence is divided into three types: 1️⃣Classic divergence. 2️⃣Hidden divergence. 3️⃣Extended divergence. ❗️To successfully trade currency pairs on Forex, taking into account divergence, you need to learn how to correctly read information from the market. A combination of indicators and fundamentals of technical analysis will help in this. Divergence plays an important role, so its indicators cannot be ignored. ❤️ Please, support our work with like & comment! ❤️
BITFINEX:BTCUSDEducation
by SignalProvider
15
What type of trader are you? Please comment belowHello friends, Today I thought in helping you understand different Forex Trader Types and probably you can identify yourself in which category you fit in so you know how to approach the market each day. There are 6 type of traders as far as I know: 1. News or Fundamental Traders ✅Fundamental traders focuses on Fundamental events that may potentially drive the market in a particular direction, causing spikes in a certain direction. ❇️This type of trading will be best for individual traders who likes to keep up with world events that can cause spikes in the market and seek to take advantage of these spikes that can last for a short period of time ranging from few seconds to 15 minutes. ✅This type of trading can be extremely risky as the market can change direction very fast which can cause a trader loosing his/her entire funds, but with good trading skills and experience this type of trading can be very rewarding and offers fast returns. ✅Fundamental Traders would seek to trade the Non-Farm Payroll data, employment figures, elections, CPI and GDP. 2. Scalpers ✅Scalpers are traders that focuses on holding positions for a short period of time from few seconds to a few minutes. ✅This type of trading requires a trader to sit on computer the whole day or during the time when the market is very volatile to take advantage of the small movements in the market to be able to make profit. ✅A trader may be inclined to take so many trades, making smaller profits each time to be able to make good return at the end of the day. 3. Day Trader ✅Day trader is more less like a scalper, taking short positions during the day and making sure that all positions are closed before the end of the day to stay away from negative news events, market gaps or widening of spread. ✅A day trader should be alert to changes in market direction and manage his positions swiftly and accordingly. 4. Swing Trader ✅Swing traders can hold positions for some couple of days and up to perhaps a couple of weeks. ✅Traders of this type analyses the market and take advantage of changes in trend direction and catch a trend while it is still fresh and ride this trend for a longer period of time before closing positions. ✅They would not be required to sit on computer the whole day. Rather, they would analyse, calculate the cost and take the position and they will only get back to computer after some couple of hours or another day to monitor the movement. ✅This type of trading is good for those that hold other businesses or jobs as they can make time for other activities to be done. 5. Position Traders ✅Positions traders hold trades for longer periods of time ranging from a several weeks to years. ✅For this type of trading patience is required to be able to hold trades for that long and a trader should have a very good knowledge about what moves currencies in a long term. ✅That also means that swap charges will be a lot and as a position trader he should put that into consideration before taking a long term position. 6. EA, Algorithmic Trader ✅These type of traders rely more or solely on computer algorithm programs to make buy and sell decisions for them. The EA also known as Expert Advisor may place trades on behalf of the trader and even closing trades when in profit. ✅Although the EA performs most of the work, a trader should also have basic knowledge of trading to be able to gain some measure of success from this type of trading. Why is it important to trade in your local currency? ✅It can save you from a lot of calculations. When you trade in a currency which is not your local currency, your mind processes so much information to convert every number to your local currency. Your mind will be tired at the end of the day and you will begin making unplanned trades. ✅I watched a video on this topic recently and this fellow mentioned the same thing that I always thought, when you trade in a currency which is not your own, you wouldn't respect money. For example, $50 US dollar would look smaller if you are a trader living and using South African Rand. You may want to wait for more to be satisfied as the number 50 may look smaller in the eyes. But if we convert USD50 to South African Rand it would be R725.38 today and for many that would be a 4 days wage. ✅Many traders, especially new ones in the Forex industry, they really do not know what they want and how to go about making things work out consistently for them, they only think if they keep buying and selling eventually they can hit a million dollar and get away from the financial distress and poverty. Probably that is how the Forex Market is perceived, that giant casino that makes people rich and such way of thinking can destroy one's life and everything he acquired for years. The most important thing here is to respect money, knowing that it is very hard to obtain. As we respect it in our homes, hiding it from our siblings or relatives, we should respect it on the MT5 or MT4. Money is like Gold in our days, if you really want to know how important money is, get a spade and go dig for Gold. I wish I could write more, but I feel like I have written more already and some people may find this boring to read. Please hit that like button if you learned something from here. Feel free to comment below what you have learned or the type of trader you are. Many Good wishes for you, Forexintelligence AKA the Sniper:)
FX:NAS100Education
by Forexintelligence_NA
10
Trend Reversal Patterns📈📉 1️⃣ Pattern head and shoulders After the pattern has become visible, namely, the right shoulder is visible, the trader needs to wait for the breakout of the neckline. Breakouts occur on strong impulses with a sharp increase in volume. Therefore, in order not to miss the entry and enter at the best price, it is better to use a sell stop order. To calculate where the price will go after the breakout of the pattern, it is enough to measure the height of the pattern (vertically from the maximum of the head to the neckline) and postpone it until the breakout point. 2️⃣ Inverted head and shoulders pattern Occurs in a downtrend and foreshadows an uptrend. The rules for working on a figure are similar to the previous ones. It should be noted that "head and shoulders" in its pure form is very rare. Be careful! 3️⃣ Double Bottom Pattern After you have identified the pattern on the price chart, you need to wait for the breakout of its resistance line. If the price has broken through the resistance, then the target will be the width of the pattern's range - the distance from the lowest point to the resistance. 4️⃣ Double Top pattern A double top is like a double bottom. The only difference is that this pattern is reversed and occurs in uptrends. The number of extrema in a pattern can be not only double, but also triple. But the rules of work will be the same for everyone - enter the breakout, postpone the target to the height of the figure and wait for it to be fulfilled. 5️⃣ Diamond We measure the height and wait for the breakdown. If there is a breakout, then the target of the price movement will be the height of the pattern from the breakout point. 6️⃣ Cup and handle Trades are opened when the "handle" is broken upwards. The target is the height of the formation. ❤️ Please, support our work with like & comment! ❤️
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by UnitedSignals
11
Education: Three Day Trailing Stop Rule (3DTSR)ICEUS:KC1! I learned a handy tool used to manage risk under certain circumstances - the Three Day Trailing Stop Rule (3DTSR) In this example, I actually fade the 3DTSR, but being able to execute different styles of trading strategies reflects an understanding of them, while acknowledging that no system or strategy used in markets will be perfect. Three Day Trailing Stop Rule: There is one initial criteria for the 3DTSR to become active - Either Upon Pattern Breakout - to limit initial risk/add to position at lower relative risk OR Upon Reaching 70% of Target from Breakout as a Trailing Stop In an Uptrend, to exit a position using the 3DTSR Day 1 is the High Day, defined by a new price high - at this point, we are not aware of the setup Day 2 is the Setup Day, defined by a closing price (end of day) that is below the low of Day 1 - at this point, the trigger is active Day 3 is the Trigger Day, as the stop is placed below the low of Day 2 The 3DTSR can also be used as an entry strategy, as shown in the chart here. Day 1 = High Day Day 2 = Setup Day, where price closed below the low of Day 1 Instead of placing a stop below the low of day 2, here I fade the 3DTSR by ADDING to a long coffee position, and jamming the stop to below the low of Day 2 Day 3 = The low of Day 2, or the trigger, is never penetrated, and price opens a cent higher If using the Trigger as a stop, or below the low of Day 2, and using the Triangle shown to imply a measured target, this is a whopping 20 to 1 trade setup. Do you have any profitable trading systems or strategies?
ICEUS:KC1!Education
by jBTCkingaling
3
Why Implied Volatility Is A Critical Tool For All TradersTraders and investors use different sets of tools when approaching markets. Some are fundamentalists, pouring through balance sheets, supply and demand data, and other macro and microeconomic information to predict the future prices of assets. Others have a strictly technical approach to markets, following trends and the path of least resistance of prices. Still, others combine the two to look for opportunities where fundamental and technical analysis merge to improve the chances of success. The past is history; the present is all that matters for traders and investors Historical volatility is a map of the past price variance for asset prices Implied volatility is a real-time sentiment indicator The primary variable determining put and call option prices The three critical factors implied volatility reveals Yogi Berra, the hall of fame catcher and armchair philosopher, once said, “The future ain’t what it used to be.” All market participants have the same goal, to increase their nest eggs. Projecting the future is the route to achieve their goal. Implied volatility is a tool that all market participants need to embrace as it is a real-time indicator of market sentiment. The past is history; the present is all that matters for traders and investors History depends on interpretation. When it comes to markets, Napoleon Bonaparte may have said it best, “history is a set of lies agreed upon.” An asset’s price moved higher or lower in the past because of a collection of variables viewed through a prism that leads to a collective conclusion that has broad acceptance but may not be accurate. Taking a risk-based position on an inaccurate conclusion could lead to mistakes and losses. When we consider buying or selling any asset, all that matters is the present. The current price of any asset is always the correct price because it is the level a seller is willing to accept and a buyer is willing to pay in a transparent environment, the market. Historical volatility is a map of the past price variance for asset prices Historical volatility is an objective statistical tool that defines the price variance of the past. Any disclosure document tells us that past performance is no guaranty of future performance. We must view historical volatility precisely the same way, with more than a grain of salt. Historical volatility is a guide, but remember what Yogi said, “the future ain’t what it used to be!” We calculate historical volatility by determining the average deviation from the average price over a given period. When it comes to math, the formulas are: A simple explanation of the complicated formula comes in seven easy steps: 1. Collect the historical prices for the asset 2. Compute the expected price (mean) of the historical prices. 3. Work out the difference between the average price and each price in the series. 4. Square the differences from the previous step. 5. Determine the sum of the squared differences. 6. Divide the differences by the total number of prices (find variance). 7. Compute the square root of the variance computed in the previous step. Implied volatility is a real-time sentiment indicator While we can calculate historical volatility from historical data, implied volatility is a different story. Implied volatility is the expected or projected volatility or price variance of an asset over time. We back into calculating implied volatility using an options pricing model. We can establish an implied volatility reading by entering the option value into the Black-Scholes options pricing formula or other formulas that determine options prices. If we have a put or call options price, we can solve for the implied volatility level. The Black-Scholes formula in mathematical notation is: The primary variable determining put and call option prices There are no option prices without implied volatility as it is the critical variable that determines put and call option values. Yogi also said, “You can observe a lot by watching.” The current implied volatility level is the market’s consensus perception of what volatility or price variance will be during the life of the put or call option. Observing and watching reveals the constant changes in implied volatility levels, which can be highly volatile over time. Option traders call an option’s sensitivity to changes in implied volatility Vega, which measures the change in an option price for a one-point change in implied volatility. Implied volatility is constantly changing. Yogi had another great saying, “If the world were perfect, it wouldn’t be,” which rings true for implied volatility which can change in the blink of an eye. Option traders pay lots of attention to their Vega risk as the volatility of implied volatility can be…highly volatile! How’s that for a tongue twister? The three critical factors implied volatility reveals Implied volatility is a valuable tool for all traders and investors for three significant reasons: It is a real-time indicator of the market’s perception of the future price range of an asset. It can change suddenly, and changes often occur before the price of an asset reacts, making implied volatility a leading indicator. Implied volatility reflects the wisdom of the crowd, and crowds tend to make better decisions than individuals. Moreover, it is reading that reflects the present, not the past, and is a constantly changing measure of consensus forecasts for the future. As traders and investors, we exist in the present. We attempt to increase our wealth with long and short risk positions that either add or subtract from our nest egg in the future. Implied volatility is a critical measure we should understand, utilize, and always keep in our toolbox. Any project requires the right tools. Implied volatility’s value is that it reflects a snapshot of the current market’s consensus. Historical volatility depends on “Deja vu” happening “all over again.” Implied volatility is a measure that understands that the “future ain’t what it used to be.” ----- Register for our Monday Night Call using the link below. You can view this full article (with specific examples) and get early access to future articles for free using the other link below. Trading advice given in this communication, if any, is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that we believe are reliable. The author does not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects the author’s good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice the author provides will result in profitable trades. There is risk of loss in all futures and options trading. Any investment involves substantial risks, including, but not limited to, pricing volatility, inadequate liquidity, and the potential complete loss of principal. This article does not in any way constitute an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any investment, security, or commodity discussed herein, or any security in any jurisdiction in which such an offer would be unlawful under the securities laws of such jurisdiction.
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ICEUS:CT1!Education
by Andy_Hecht
18
Trading Basics | Your Main Trading Time Frame ⏳ Hey traders, You frequently ask me what is the most important time frame to analyze and follow. And even though I must admit that multiple time frames must be taken into consideration for successful trading like weekly/daily/4h/1h. Among them, there is the one that is universally considered to be principal. That is a daily time frame. There are a lot of reasons why so many traders rely on a daily time frame: 1️⃣ - Daily time frame shows a global market trend at the same time reflecting a mid-term and short-term perspective letting the trader catch trend following moves and spot early reversal signs. 2️⃣ - Covering multiple perspectives, daily time frame is the foundation of the majority of the trading strategies being the main source of key levels & pattern analysis. 3️⃣ - Daily time filters out news events that happened during the trading day. It shows the composite reaction of the market participants to all the data posted in the economic calendar. 4️⃣ - Daily time frame reflects all trading sessions. Within one single candle, we see the outcome of the Asian, London, and New York Sessions. 5️⃣ - Daily candle filters out all the noise from lower time frames & intraday price fluctuations and sudden spikes & rejections. 6️⃣ - Covering all the trading sessions, daily time frame mirrors the activities of big players like hedge funds and banks. Showing us the flow & direction of big money. ⚠️Being so important for analysis, do not neglect other time frames. The most accurate trading decision can be made only relying on a combination of intraday and daily time frames. What is your favorite time frame to trade? ❤️Please, support this idea with like and comment!❤️
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by VasilyTrader
26
Stop loss is your enemy? One of the most common misconceptions in trading is that your STOP LOSS is your ENEMY. But in fact, the opposite is true. Stop loss is your best friend There will always be losing trades because they are part of the trading system. You cannot avoid them, but you can CONTROL the losses. Stop Loss is a defense mechanism designed to get you out of the market at the PRESERVED PRICE and LOSS that you planned. Exiting a stop loss certainly doesn't make you a bad trader. When a trade goes against you, you are the most vulnerable in terms of irrationality and emotional instability. SL (Stop Loss) exists to get you out of the market safely and securely before your emotions get the better of you and further damage your account balance. Most newcomers to the market make the same mistakes ... Always increase the SL size, add more positions at a loss, and risk most of their accounts for a few trades. Always adhere to 1-3% RISK PER TRANSACTION. The key to the game is longevity. By understanding that your SL is your savior, you can release the emotional tension of a losing trade and instead maintain maximum clarity on your charts to quickly move away from PRE-CALCULATED losses as a simple part of the process. With the right RISK / PROFIT RATIO and adherence to the RISK principles of 1-3%, you can get more losing trades than profitable ones, but at the same time remain a profitable trader 💰 Your worst feeling is greed. Keep your losses minimal and you will quickly find that your trading will improve tenfold by simply exiting the market when it no longer matches your preconceptions and plans. ❤️ Please, support our work with like & comment! ❤️
Education
by UnitedSignals
9
RISK MANAGEMENT + PATIENCE = SUCCESS Hello everyone! In this idea, I will try to warn you against the wrong approach to trading. As you know, 95% of retail traders hold their losing positions for too long in the market, but at the same time cut profits before the trade reaches its potential. That is, a trader, being in unprofitable positions, is ready to sit out huge drawdowns -50% ..- 70% ..- 100% of the deposit, but at the same time, with a profitable trade, he is ready to close the profit with a yield of + 1% with trembling hands. It is a common trait of a retail trader to be constantly at war with the market. The fastest way to drain your deposit is to fight against trades that are going against you. 95% of traders fall into the trap by increasing their stop loss on an open trade or, even worse, adding even more positions to a trade that goes against them, sincerely hoping that the market is about to turn around and go in their direction. Successful traders do the opposite. Taking the risk per trade of 1-2%, they minimize their losses in unprofitable scenarios by closing by stop loss. But in the case of profitable trades, they take MORE profit than they initially risk. In this case, a profitable trader may have more losing trades than positive ones, but he will still be in profit. Take the emotion out of your trade and let price hit your stop loss where you set it. Thus, your losses do not exceed the threshold of the planned risk, allowing your profitable positions (with a good risk: reward ratio) to override any that did not work in your favor. Cut your losses and let your profits grow ❤️ Please, support our work with like & comment! ❤️
Education
by SignalProvider
9
KNOW WHEN TO STOP TRADING🛑 A trader who is in a bad mood should think about taking a break. The easiest way to determine when a BREAK from trading is needed is to first assess your current emotional state and performance. - Do you constantly close the trades couple of seconds/minutes after you opened them, chaning your mind? - Do you spend all day "burning" your eyes, watching charts to find patterns just for the sake of making money fast? - Are you deviating from your trading plan? - Are you taking more risks than usual? If you answered "YES" to at least one of these questions, then it's time to stop. Always let the market give you the conditions for trading. Build your analysis = Follow your trading plan & strategy and let the market do what it needs to do. Never get into the market at random or into the first pattern you come across. You will often notice that the pattern is not the best trading condition. When you find yourself violating strict risk management and trading plan, take a step back and understand what may be causing your irrational decision-making. ❤️ Please, support our work with like & comment! ❤️
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by UnitedSignals
13
TRADING HIERARCHY | KNOW WHAT MATTERS THE MOST ⚠️❗ Hey traders, I vividly remember how I started to trade 8 years ago, how I was learning, and the things that I was doing. Contemplating my old self, I notice a dramatic shift in my mindset in regards to trading. Staring at the charts and desiring to make money on price action, I wanted to become a consistently profitable trader. Making the priorities, I decided to sacrifice my time on studying technical analysis totally neglecting trading psychology and risk management. Learning different trading strategies I always came to the same result: the account went blown and nothing seemed to work. Strategies of fancy traders on YouTube, strategies from best-selling books on Amazon, nothing could produce any penny. Not giving up and pursuing my ultimate goal I came to the conclusion that I set my priorities absolutely incorrectly. To be honest, I always thought that trading psychology (like psychology in general) is s*cks. Moreover, I considered risk management to be kind of obvious, banal topic not deserving much attention. Learning risk management techniques, applying them in day trading I finally saw a glimmer of hope. Reading dozen of books on trading psychology, contemplating my mistakes, and observing my behavior I noticed so many wrong, incorrect things that I did on a daily basis. With time and practice, my mindset shifted. I realized that most of the strategies that I applied and that seemed losing to me, in fact, were decent. It turned out that mastery of technical analysis is not enough for profitable trading. Instead, that is just a tiny part of what must be learned. Now, when my students ask me about the most important things to learn & study in trading, I always say: trading psychology and risk management go first, technical analysis is the secondary. ❗ Do not neglect these topics and give them due attention. They are an essential part of your success in trading. 🤔 Do you agree with the pyramid that I drew? ❤️Please, support this idea with like and comment!❤️
COINBASE:BTCUSDEducation
by VasilyTrader
44
Analyst and Trader. What are the differences? The main difference between an Analyst and a Trader is in their main goals. For an analyst, the main goal is to determine the future price and write articles. Most analysts give a double trend direction in their forecasts, as they worry about their incorrect forecast, and hedge in case of their mistake. For a trader, the main goal is to MAKE a PROFIT when working in the market. At the same time, the direction of the trend is a secondary goal, since you can also make a profit by scalping when the trend does not matter much. Each trader has his approach to trading and his trading strategy. One trader opens a long position to earn money on the growth of quotations, but at the same time, another trader opens a short position on the same instrument to earn money when the price drops. PROFIT is the main priority for the trader. The analyst can show alternative options for the development of events, leaving the trader to make a responsible decision about actions in one or another option. At the same time, the Analyst does not risk anything - neither his money nor his reputation, since TWO OPPOSITE scenarios insure him from making a mistake. As a rule, 65% of analysts do not trade themselves, but only write analytical articles and make forecasts. A few facts about the analyst and trader: Analyst: - collects information and analyzes the market situation - writes analytical articles - makes forecasts (usually in two directions, for safety) - probably trades/invests by himself according to his forecasts Trader: - determines the direction for a potential transaction - performs risk calculation and installation of a protective order (stop loss) - performs trading operations on the market to make a profit - manages and accompanies the position from the beginning to the end And who do you think you are? An analyst or a trader? ❤️ Please, support our work with like & comment! ❤️
BITFINEX:BTCUSDEducation
by SignalProvider
7
POW Edge Reversal is HERE 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀We've been sharing ideas on this strategy for quite some time now as part of our 'forward testing' approach and log. In this video, I run through the strategy, how it works and how it can help. Everything we do at POW is based on 'proof it works' - this is no different and you'll see this in the data I run through for you. Any questions about gaining access please drop me a DM on here. This just shows how powerful Pine script is - to automate a strategy and confirm you have an edge in the market. Removing stress, decisions, overwhelm and all of the emotional struggles trading can bring. Let me know in the comments what you think please - be nice right 😅? Please scroll through some of my previous ideas to see some trades in action. Regards Darren
Education
by pow_removetheguesswork
7
Education excerpt: OPECThe Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) is a permanent intergovernmental organization with main goal to coordinate and unify the petroleum policies of its member countries. This pertains mainly to securing fair and stable pricing in the oil market; efficient and regular supply of petroleum to consuming nations and fair return on capital to the producing countries. The OPEC was established in Baghdad, Iraq in 1960 by five countries. Founding countries were: Iraq, Islamic Republic of Iran, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and Venezuela. One year later the organization was joined by Qatar in 1961. After that Indonesia and Libya followed in 1962. United Arab Emirates joined the cartel in 1967 and Algeria in 1969. Then Nigeria became member of the OPEC in 1971, Ecuador in 1973 and Gabon in 1975. Few decades later, Angola joined the OPEC in 2007, Equatorial Guinea in 2017 and Congo in 2018. Ecuador suspended its membership in 1962. However, it rejoined the cartel in 2007. But then again in 2009 Ecuador withdrew its membership from OPEC. Similarly, Indonesia suspended its membership in 2009 and rejoined the cartel in 2016 only to leave it again in 2016. Gabon also suspended its membership in 1995. Although, Gabon reactivated its membership in 2016. Qatar was the last country to terminate its membership in 2019. Current members: 1. Iraq 2. Iran 3. Kuwait 4. Saudi Arabia 5. Venezuela 6. Libya 7. United Arab Emirates 8. Algeria 9. Nigeria 10. Gabon 11. Angola 12. Equatorial Guinea 13. Congo The OPEC's executive organ is called the Secretariat and it is run by the Secretary General. Secretariat was originally established in 1961. It also functions as headquarters for the organization. In the beginning, OPEC had its headquarters in Geneva, Switzerland for five years. However, OPEC's headquarters were moved to Vienna, Austria in 1965. Executive organ is responsible for implementation of all resolutions passed by the Conference. Secretariat also conducts research and fullfills all decisions made by the Board of Governeros. The Secretary General is the representative of the OPEC who simultaneously acts as Executive of the Secretariat. The Secretary General is electable role and its term last three years. Although, there is possibility to renew this term once. The Secretary General is assisted by the Office of the Secretary general and several other officers and staff members of the OPEC. The Office of the Secretary general helps the executive chief of the Secretariat to maintain efficient relations with relevant international organizations and governments. Another important organ of the organization is the Legal Office which supervises legal matters of the Secretariat and provides legal advice to the Secretary General. In addition to that, there is also the Research Division that consists of three departments: Data Services, Energy Studies and Petroleum Studies. The Research Division is responsible for conducting research with regards to the energy and related matters. Infrastructure and services are provided by the Support Services Division. OPEC Fund The OPEC Fund for International Development is international finance development institution that was established in 1976. It consists of 12 members: Algeria, Ecuador, Gabon, Indonesia, IR Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Venezuela. Its purpose is to provide financial help to the developing countries and support advancement in these low-income and middle-income countries. Disclaimer: This content serves solely educational purpose.
TVC:USOILEducation
by Tradersweekly
6
5 Important Candle Patterns that You Need to Know 5 most important candlesticks to know! Simplicity is the key to a positive result, and many traders ignore the simplicity of using these 5 MAIN candle patterns and the importance of each of them, as well as what they are. Many traders complicate everything and make trading more complicated than necessary. Using only these 5 candle patterns together with other basics of technical analysis is all you need to successfully make money in the market! Learn to read the market like a book, read candles-it's like reading words on a page. Candlesticks are the language of the market, and to understand the market, we must be fluent in the language of the markets. Knowing exactly where to find and trade these 5 candle patterns can change your trading forever. Candlesticks combined with other methods of applying technical analysis can be incredibly powerful in understanding where financial markets can go. It is important to remember that candlestick patterns are a physical representation of human psychology and decisions made in the market. Think deeper. The candles that you see on your charts, actually give you clear signs of what the dominant side (buyers or sellers) wants to do next. ❤️ Please, support our work with like & comment! ❤️
Editors' picks
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by SignalProvider
41
4 TIPS ON USING TECHNICAL INDICATORS 🤖🖥 Hey traders, Technical indicators are an essential part of technical analysis. With multiple different indicators on a chart, the trader aims to spot oversold/overbought conditions of the market and make a profit on that. Though, I don't consider myself to be an expert in indicators trading, here are the great tips that will help you dramatically improve your trading with them. #1️⃣ Do not overload your chart with indicators. There is a fallacy among so many traders: more indicators on the chart lead to an increase in trading performance. Following this statement, traders add dozens of technical indicators to their charts. The chart becomes not readable and messy. The trader gets lost and makes wrong trading decisions. Instead, add 1-2 indicators to your chart. That will be enough for you to make correct judgments. Do not overload your chart and try to make it clean: your task is to analyze the price action first and only then look for additional clues reading the indicators. #2️⃣ Learn what exactly the indicator shows The data derived from technical indicator must make sense to you. You must understand the logic behind its algorithm. You must know exactly what it shows to you. Confidence in your actions plays a key role in trading. During the periods of losing streaks and drawdowns, many traders drop their trading strategies. It happens because they lose their confidence. You will be able to overcome negative trading periods only by being confident in your actions. Only knowing exactly what you do, what do you rely on and why you can proceed even in dark times. #3️⃣ Use the indicators that compliment each other Many indicators are based on the same algorithms. Most of the time the only difference between them is a minor change in its input variables. For that reason, such indicators leave very similar clues. In order to improve your trading, try to rely on indicators based on absolutely different algorithms. They must complement each other, not show you the same thing. #4️⃣ Price action first! Remember that your trading strategy must be based primarily on a price action. Trend analysis and structure analysis must go first. You must know the way to make predictions relying on a naked chart. The indicators must be applied as the confirmation signals only. They must support the trading strategy but not be its core. ❗️Remember that the indicators won't do all the work for you. Indicator is just a tool in your toolbox that must be applied properly and in strict combination with other tools. Would you add some other tips in this list? ❤️Please, support this idea with like and comment!❤️
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by VasilyTrader
38
✨ The Dejavu Effect ✨What is Dejavu? Dejavu is a term used to describe a feeling that one has lived through the present situation before. How does this tie in with the markets? Technical analysis is based on patterns repeating itself over and over again. Technical analysts believe past trading activity and price action can be valuable indicators to future price movement. How can we prepare ourselves? Some of the ways we can prepare ourselves is by doing the following: - Learning patterns that reoccur over and over again such as bull flags, wedges etc. - Identifying candlestick formations and understand what they mean e.g. shooting star candles means there’s a possible trend reversal from bullish to bearish - Learning to identify structure levels where price can react in the future - Understanding fibonacci and learning how to use it effectively. [Once we’ve identified a possible market dejavu moment, what next? Following identification, the next step is confirming whether this is in fact a similar move to historic price movements. The types of confirmations that can be used are the following: - Trendline breakout - Fibonacci rejection - Lower timeframe patterns - Moving average strategies __________________________________________________ EURUSD - The Dejavu Effect 1. Bullish Correction. We identified a falling wedge which resulted in price moving higher. 2. Bear Correction. The bullish move was short lived with a bearish correction which resulted in… 3. Three Wave Falling Wedge. This falling wedge pushed price up to the double top region. 4. Ascending Correction. The move up to the double top could be monitored using an ascending trend line to monitor the correction. 5. Minor drop. Once price broke down, we had a minor drop. 6. Major drop. After another small correction we had a major drop. Notice how we didn’t specify whether we were talking about the Blue phase or Red red phase… Dejavu.
Education
by WicktatorFX
18