5 Important Candle Patterns that You Need to Know
5 most important candlesticks to know!
Simplicity is the key to a positive result, and many traders ignore the simplicity of using these 5 MAIN candle patterns and the importance of each of them, as well as what they are.
Many traders complicate everything and make trading more complicated than necessary. Using only these 5 candle patterns together with other basics of technical analysis is all you need to successfully make money in the market!
Learn to read the market like a book, read candles-it's like reading words on a page. Candlesticks are the language of the market, and to understand the market, we must be fluent in the language of the markets.
Knowing exactly where to find and trade these 5 candle patterns can change your trading forever.
Candlesticks combined with other methods of applying technical analysis can be incredibly powerful in understanding where financial markets can go.
It is important to remember that candlestick patterns are a physical representation of human psychology and decisions made in the market.
Think deeper. The candles that you see on your charts, actually give you clear signs of what the dominant side (buyers or sellers) wants to do next.
❤️ Please, support our work with like & comment! ❤️
Commodities
4 TIPS ON USING TECHNICAL INDICATORS 🤖🖥
Hey traders,
Technical indicators are an essential part of technical analysis.
With multiple different indicators on a chart, the trader aims to spot oversold/overbought conditions of the market and make a profit on that.
Though, I don't consider myself to be an expert in indicators trading, here are the great tips that will help you dramatically improve your trading with them.
#1️⃣ Do not overload your chart with indicators.
There is a fallacy among so many traders:
more indicators on the chart lead to an increase in trading performance.
Following this statement, traders add dozens of technical indicators to their charts.
The chart becomes not readable and messy.
The trader gets lost and makes wrong trading decisions.
Instead, add 1-2 indicators to your chart. That will be enough for you to make correct judgments. Do not overload your chart and try to make it clean: your task is to analyze the price action first and only then look for additional clues reading the indicators.
#2️⃣ Learn what exactly the indicator shows
The data derived from technical indicator must make sense to you.
You must understand the logic behind its algorithm.
You must know exactly what it shows to you.
Confidence in your actions plays a key role in trading.
During the periods of losing streaks and drawdowns, many traders drop their trading strategies. It happens because they lose their confidence.
You will be able to overcome negative trading periods only by being confident in your actions.
Only knowing exactly what you do, what do you rely on and why you can proceed even in dark times.
#3️⃣ Use the indicators that compliment each other
Many indicators are based on the same algorithms.
Most of the time the only difference between them is a minor change in its input variables.
For that reason, such indicators leave very similar clues.
In order to improve your trading, try to rely on indicators based on absolutely different algorithms. They must complement each other,
not show you the same thing.
#4️⃣ Price action first!
Remember that your trading strategy must be based primarily on a price action. Trend analysis and structure analysis must go first.
You must know the way to make predictions relying on a naked chart.
The indicators must be applied as the confirmation signals only.
They must support the trading strategy but not be its core.
❗️Remember that the indicators won't do all the work for you.
Indicator is just a tool in your toolbox that must be applied properly and in strict combination with other tools.
Would you add some other tips in this list?
❤️Please, support this idea with like and comment!❤️
LEARN TO TRADE THE FOREX WITH OPTIONSForex Trading Alternative Using Options to trade the Forex Market.
Hey traders here is in my opinion the best way to build up a small forex account. By trading options on the forex. This strategy will give you staying power in the forex market. It is a great alternative to trading on margin accounts exposing yourself to unlimited risk with a traditional forex broker.
Enjoy!
Trade Well,
Clifford
✨ The Dejavu Effect ✨What is Dejavu?
Dejavu is a term used to describe a feeling that one has lived through the present situation before.
How does this tie in with the markets?
Technical analysis is based on patterns repeating itself over and over again. Technical analysts believe past trading activity and price action can be valuable indicators to future price movement.
How can we prepare ourselves?
Some of the ways we can prepare ourselves is by doing the following:
- Learning patterns that reoccur over and over again such as bull flags, wedges etc.
- Identifying candlestick formations and understand what they mean e.g. shooting star candles means there’s a possible trend reversal from bullish to bearish
- Learning to identify structure levels where price can react in the future
- Understanding fibonacci and learning how to use it effectively.
[Once we’ve identified a possible market dejavu moment, what next?
Following identification, the next step is confirming whether this is in fact a similar move to historic price movements. The types of confirmations that can be used are the following:
- Trendline breakout
- Fibonacci rejection
- Lower timeframe patterns
- Moving average strategies
__________________________________________________
EURUSD - The Dejavu Effect
1. Bullish Correction. We identified a falling wedge which resulted in price moving higher.
2. Bear Correction. The bullish move was short lived with a bearish correction which resulted in…
3. Three Wave Falling Wedge. This falling wedge pushed price up to the double top region.
4. Ascending Correction. The move up to the double top could be monitored using an ascending trend line to monitor the correction.
5. Minor drop. Once price broke down, we had a minor drop.
6. Major drop. After another small correction we had a major drop.
Notice how we didn’t specify whether we were talking about the Blue phase or Red red phase… Dejavu.
How do you trade with Correlation?How do you trade with Correlation?
You can trade on forex pair correlations by identifying which currency pairs have a positive or negative correlation to each other. I have identified above the 3 main correlation pairs which correlate best with each other. In the conventional sense, you would open two of the same positions if the correlation was positive, or two opposing positions if the correlation was negative, for example when OIL increases in value, the Canadian Dollar tends to increase in value. This is because Canada is among the top 5 oil producing and exporting countries making them directly correlate.
CHF & GOLD Correlation
Both the Swiss Franc (CHF) and physical gold have acted as reserve 'currencies' thereby establishing a relationship between the gold price and Swiss Franc . Despite some differences, the Swiss Franc and the gold price are correlated and the similarities shared by the two can be clearly identified. This the Swiss National Bank has a huge amount of Gold Reserves and is one of the largest possessors of gold reserves worldwide. This also gives the Swiss Franc direct correlation with gold as the government passed a legislation that the Swiss Franc must be backed by gold .
Why is it important
Correlation is important when trading your strategy as you can manipulate the market and gain more confluences to confirm your entries. For example if you are focusing on the Canadian Dollar and can see a bullish trend and an entry point, OIL must also be bullish due to the correlation and you can confirm your analogy as you have analysed 2 correlating pairs which are both bullish .
POWER OF CHART PATTERNSHi,
If you know the pattern & can identify it correctly during the formulation. You can easily enter & target a proper level. Just like in the previous XAUUSD idea in which we targeted the Previous move which was inside the pattern and banked 170+ pips. If you had an eye on it you could have easily targeted our next target which is 3x of the last one. So this h
See ya!
Without this, you will not become a profitable trader
Yes, this is risk management.
Without proper risk management, your trading strategy based on levels, indicators, patterns, etc.will not make any sense.
Any trading strategy should be supported by strict risk management, where the maximum allowable losses per transaction and the risk ratio are observed:the profit is always more than 1/2.
You don't have to be right in every trade. It's just that your profit in successful transactions should be greater than the losses in unprofitable transactions. This correct use of risk management will lead you to success.
____________
The example shows one of the real scenarios of any trading system where the rules of risk management are observed:
Deposit of 10,000$
The risk per transaction is -1% (or -100$)
Total trades:
4 profitable trades = +14%
10 losing trades = -10%
Total: +4% (or + 400$)
Even though only 30% of the total number of profitable transactions, we still have a profitable result.
Learn risk management and become a consistently profitable trader.
❤️ Please, support our work with like & comment! ❤️
XAG/USD EVERY SUNDAY LIVE ZOOM ANALYSISThe gold & silver market is pushing significantly higher, following a significant miss in the U.S. labor market with fewer jobs created in August.
Friday, the U.S. Labor Department said that 235,000 jobs were created last month. The data was weaker than expected as consensus forecasts called for jobs gains of 720,000.
While the headline data saw a significant miss, the Labor Department included substantial revisions to its June and July numbers. June's employment numbers were revised up by 24,000 to 962,000 from the previous estimate of 938,000. Meanwhile, July's data was revised up to 1.053 million jobs compared to the initial estimate of 943,000.
However, some economists note that the strong revisions are not enough to take the full sting out of the disappointing headline numbers.
Meanwhile, the U.S. unemployment rate dropped to 5.2%, down from July's reading of 5.4%. The unemployment rate fell in line with expectations.
The gold market has broken through critical near-term support levels in initial reaction to the weaker-than-expected employment data. December gold futures last traded at $1,827.10, up nearly 1% on the day.
Not only was job growth weaker last month, but positive for gold, wage inflation continues to creep higher. The report said that wages rose 0.6% in August, up from July's 0.4% increase. Economists were expecting to see a 0.3% increase.
A lot of focus had been placed on the August employment numbers. Many Federal Reserve officials noted that a strong number could prompt them to launch their plans to reduce their monthly bond purchases. However, some economists say the disappointing data could force the central bank to delay those plans.
"This disappointing report will make it a closer call than we expected for a September tapering announcement from the Fed," said Katherine Judge, senior economist at CIBC.
Paul Ashworth, chief U.S. economist at Capital Economics, said that the latest employment numbers puts the Federal Reserve in a very difficult position. He noted that the economic data shows the COVID-19 pandemic and the spreading Delta Variant is impacting the current recovery.
“Even allowing for the fact that first estimates for August often disappoint on the downside, the extent of the slowdown in jobs growth all-but rules out any tapering announcement at this month's FOMC meeting and, if this weakness persists, then it could be pushed into early next year.
XAG/USD EVERY SUNDAY LIVE ZOOM ANALYSIS UK 18:00
Trading psychology & becoming a profitable trader over timeIf you find the analysis useful, please like and share our ideas with the community. Any feedback and suggestions would help in further improving the analysis!
Is it true that in the markets, over 90% of traders lose money? Likely! In that case, only a small percentage of traders remain profitable over a longer period. Although some people perceive trading as akin to speculating, it definitely isn’t! Over the course of years of professional trading, one thing is clear: Trading is more about discipline and psychology than drawing support and resistance lines on the charts.
The fundamental principles of a trading mindset could be categorized as follows, in their order of importance:
Preservation of capital
Consistent profitability
Pursuit of higher returns
Preservation of capital is the most crucial aspect of trading. Everytime we trade, we put the capital at risk. We need to be prepared with ways to mitigate the risk even before entering the trade. If the capital is lost, we will be thrown out of the markets. Winning and losing will continue to be part of the game. It is essential for us to make sure that we never lose more than we win.
To determine the viability of any trade, traders most often use a criteria called risk versus reward. This simple criteria allows one to judge whether entering the trade is worthy enough. If the risk versus reward for a particular trade is 1:3, in simple terms it means the trader would risk $10 for a potential profit of $30.
Entering unnecessary trades without looking at the risk v/s reward can be disastrous. Although there might be some winning trades, in the long-run such traders almost always end up burning their capital.
Consistent profitability as concept comes as a natural succession to the preservation of capital principle. Capital doesn’t remain static. It is either gained or lost. One needs to be consistently profitable to gain capital. In order to achieve this, one needs to preserve the gains and minimize the losses.
Assume that a trader only enters trades where the risk/reward is at least 1:3. If the trader wins 1 in every 3 trades, he still ends up being profitable. ( Take a look at the table in our chart )
By banking 50 percent of total returns each time you go from a negative to a positive return within your measuring period, you both increase the amount of available capital after each gain and increase the probability that you will remain profitable. In actual practice, you might decide to bank 50 percent of the net from each profitable trade as long as your performance was positive, but the results would not be substantially different. The basic idea is to never put all your profits at risk. It is fine to double up on a profitable position, but not if it means putting all your gains at risk.
The pursuit of superior returns
The pursuit of superior returns involves more aggressive risk taking, and only with a portion of profits, never initial trading capital.
Most people might think aggressive risk taking involves altering the basic risk/reward criterion. To the contrary, it is foolish ever to ignore or underweigh potential risk. Profits, once accrued, are essentially the same as capital, and must be preserved. But once you have achieved a comfortable level of profits, it is appropriate to increase the size of positions by risking a portion of profits. If you win', you dramatically increase your returns. If you lose, you are still profitable, and can continue to pursue consistent profitability until you reach a higher risk plateau once more.
A successful trader never lets her emotions get the better of her.
As stated by Victor Sperandeo in his book ‘Principles of Professional Speculation’, a traders' commandments should be as follows:
Do not overtrade.
Do not take a loss home.
Never add to a bad trade.
Never let a profit become a loss.
Always figure your stop loss before you initiate a trade.
Don't be a one-way trader. Be flexible.
Add to profitable trades when appropriate. The best time to buy or sell is after consolidations and a break above or below range prices.
Parts of this post have been referenced from Victor Sperandeo's book, ‘Principles of Professional Speculation.’
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Do give a follow and leave a like in case you like our posts.
Keep supporting:)
-Mudrex
XAU/USD - CHART ANALYSIS - NFP ! The gold market still has a path to $2,000 in the second half of the year as the precious metal is undervalued in a world awash with liquidity, according to the latest research from Bloomberg Intelligence (BI).
In a report published Wednesday, Mike McGlone, senior commodity strategist at BI, said that within the metals complex, gold appears to have the most potential when compared to other assets like copper and aluminum.
"Copper and aluminum are reaching upper range price caps, but we see gold as a discounted bull market with improving fundamental underpinnings," he said in the report. "The copper-to-gold ratio has reached the highest level in about seven years and a rare disparity vs. declining U.S. Treasury bond yields, which we expect will be resolved by a resumption of the precious metal outperforming the industrial.
Looking at aluminum, McGlone said that tightening supply and demand fundamentals are helping to push prices to $3,000 per tonne; however, similar to copper's run to $10,000, he added that aluminum’s rally appears to be unstable. He said that the industrial metal complex faces some challenging near-term hurdles.
"Supply elasticity is proving strong for copper, indicating headwinds for the industrial-metal sector, but ESG, electrification and decarbonization trends should maintain the group's upper hand vs. most other commodities, with the exception of precious metals," he said. "Among the most supply-constrained commodities, gold and silver have the relative advantage heading toward the end of 2021 of having experienced sharp corrections within more enduring bull markets, as we see it."
While there is plenty of bullish sentiment surging through precious metals markets, gold prices continue to struggle to find consistent momentum. The precious metal is holding support above $1,800 an ounce, but it has been unable to push above $1,820 an ounce. December gold futures last traded at $1,810.80 an ounce, down 0.29% on the day.
How To Spot and Use Liquidity Zones In Your TradingIn this video we show how you can easily spot where liquidity is on a chart and how to use this information to profit from in your own trading
Of course for a successful trading strategy, this is only a small part of the puzzle and you will need to add many more aspects of analysis.
Please LIKE, SHARE & COMMENT on this video to show your support.
Let me know if you have any questions below!
IMPROVE YOUR TRADING | Simple Flowchart For You to Follow 🧭📍
A short ⚠️disclaimer before we start:
the rules that will be discussed in this post are applicable only for technicians - traders that are relying on price action/structure/etc.
Also, we assume that structure levels do work and for us, key levels are considered to be the safest trading zones/points.
In order to increase the accuracy of your predictions analyzing different financial markets, you must learn to identify the direction of the market.📈
The identification of the market trend must be based on strict & reliable & testable rules.
It can be based on technical indicators or price action
Personally, I prefer to rely on price action.
Here are a couple of examples of how I identify the market trend:
There are three main types of market trends:
Bullish Trend
Bearish Trend
Sideways Market
Depending on the current direction of the market, on the chart, I drew a flow chart✔️ that will help you to act safely.
➡️Sideways market signifies consolidation & indecision. Usually being in such a state the market tends to coil in horizontal ranges.
To trade such a market safely, the best option for you will be to wait for a breakout of the range & wait for the initiation of the trend.
➡️Once you spotted a bullish market, do not rush to buy.
Your task will be to identify the closest strong structure support.
You must be patient enough to let the price reach that support first (and by the way, there is no guarantee that it will happen) and then you must wait for a certain confirmation.
Please, check the article about different types of confirmations:
Only once you get the needed confirmation you can buy the market.
➡️The same strategy will be applicable to a bearish market.
Spotting a short rally it is way early to just sell the asset from a random point.
You must find the closest strong structure resistance and wait for the moment when the price will approach that.
Then your task will be to wait for a confirmation and only when you got the reliable trigger you short the market.
🦉Try to rely on this flow chart and I promise you that you will see a dramatic increase in your trading performance.
And even though it may appear to you that this flow chart is TOO SIMPLE, in practice, even such a set of rules requires iron discipline and patience.
Thank you so much for reading this article,
I hope you enjoy it!
❤️Please, support it with like and comment. Thank you!
Global events - the last 18 Months. I recently posted a timeline of Bitcoin events as well as record several videos on the current Elliott Wave moves around Bitcoin, DXY and a few Forex pairs.
Here’s a link to the Bitcoin timeline;
Looking back at the last 18 months or so now, I wanted to cover some of the significant events that have taken place, which would have had some (but not as much as you think) of an effect on the Elliott counts as a whole. For those of you not familiar with Elliott, there is a link in the ‘related ideas’ section covering the basics.
So, let’s go back in time;
Brexit announced back in 2016 – carried through and completed in 2020.
Thus, kicking off the year with a fair size event, the global markets not quite sure what the fall out would be, where the damage would come and of course if there where to be profitable positions to obtain. An awful lot of hesitation & fear seen in the market.
Jump forward to the next big event; although COVID-19 was technically pre 2020, the real effects did not start to emerge until early 2020 when the world went into LOCKDOWNS, crazy mayhem soon followed and has not really disappeared since.
After the world starts to go mad! A few other things happen during this period!
- Oil goes negative for the first time in HISTORY
- Gold hits $2,000
- S&P creates an all-time high
If this was not enough to cause global confusion, we also had an interesting period in the United States.
All though there are plenty of other events that have shaped this last 18 months or so, you can clearly see with so much – the charts will be a little more sporadic, a little harder to read. So, although methods such as Elliott and Wyckoff are still very powerful.
Even Wyckoff Schematics got a good run in the social media platforms! (Probably kicked that off in March) 😉
Interesting times ahead - @TradingView community, take care of yourself and keep in mind! It’s been a crazy 18-months, 2 years!
**(This is not a trade idea, even a bias - it's just highlighting how insane these last 18-months have been)
For education on Wyckoff and Elliott - see my bio below;
Disclaimer
This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
Today’s Notable Sentiment ShiftsHigh-Beta – AUD, CAD and NZD benefited from rising commodity prices on Tuesday, as markets set aside concerns about the spread of the Delta coronavirus variant. The notable outperformer in the commodities complex was oil prices, with WTI approaching $68 per barrel, up almost $2.50/+3% on the day.
Indeed, following today’s strong performance in WTI, TD Securities noted that: “With the impact on demand fueling chatter that OPEC+’s next monthly output hike could be delayed, and China’s “Zero-Covid” strategy appearing to have quickly contained the outbreak, crude oil could once again have a solid footing to challenge the $70s.”
AUDUSD - How To Trade This Channel! 😍 📚AUDUSD is in a really nice channel where price is respecting both the limits of the channel. We saw a nice bounce off the channel support and looks like we'll be heading towards the channel resistance very soon.
The basic rules of trading within a channel are the following:
- Buy on bounce off channel support
- Sell on rejection off channel resistance
- Stoploss outside of the channel
- Targets should be the outer limit of the channel
** For descending channels, the move down will always be bigger than the move up
** For ascending channels, the move up will always be bigger than the move down
Do your best to identify channels in your trading - easy trades!
Goodluck and as always trade safe!
Most Powerful Formation in Technical Analysis Sideways Channel!Hey traders so in the last lesson we spoke about how the Head & Shoulders pattern is great for spotting tops and bottoms in the market. Today I want to introduce you to the most powerful formation in all of technical analysis called The Narrow Sideways Channel. This is every traders dream to learn how to catch the big moves and profits that make history in the markets. They don't happen very often but when they do the market can explode and we can catch the big move before it happens. If you ever see one of these on your charts get ready to strap in your seatbelt because it will be a wild ride!
Enjoy!
Trade Well,
Clifford
MrRenev portfolio exposedHere is my current short term portfolio. This might give the reader an idea of how a moderately diversified short term portfolio might look. I use various tools (including turbos, options...) so it's hard to say how much I have in, but I know how much of original risk I got. Which is today €500. I added my little XRP bag from earlier this year to my crypto holdings to get to exactly 500.
It makes more sense to build a PF looking at risk rather than the size that doesn't mean anything by itself. Of course I have some winners and I have trailed my stop so this is why I precise "original" risk, that's the risk when I opened the position.
The whole thing is maybe €40,000 with €25,000-€30,000 in Forex which would make it around 70% but it is less volatile, in "risk" terms it's actually 30%. Entry stops are tight (for example 0.50% with FX, 2% with S&P, 1% with commodities depends). I am sure I have 25 to 30K in FX, it's the rest that is hard to evaluate.
Here is the detail:
30% - Forex: 2 longs on the Yen, 2 shorts on AUD, and short USDZAR.
25% - Commodities: Gold, Platinum, Natural Gas. All long.
23% - Indices: All in the S&P500 long, pyramided in since April.
12% - Crypto: Mostly Bitcoin. And a bit of XRP (it's less than 6 month old).
10% - Stocks: Pfizer & Moderna.
I also have a few stocks & cryptos that I hold long term and have not listed here. And cash in the bank. And physical goods in my house. I even have stamps and a few old coins. I don't check on it every day, or week, or month, or year, but I really don't care about the long term stuff, I am focussed on the long term. Looks like I have found a perfect trick to not worry.
I am not "ultra" diversified, but some billionaires have hinted that diversification may be for idiots. If you saw Ray Dalio present his "holy grail" you know that (roughly) you get a huge improvement in risk adjusted returns going from 1 to 5 (good) positions, a little more improvement going from 5 to 10, and it basically flatlines past 10 positions no matter how much you add. This is universally true, I'm sure it can be proven by a mathematician and the limit of growth will be Euler's number 2.718 (like maybe the stdev can only be improved 2.718X?), no matter how many uncorrelated positions are added. The reasons for having dozens of positions is either you're such a whale you have to, or you're trying to attract clients and plenty of positions makes you look pro and justifies the cost and also makes it look too complicated to do for a novice.
My positions shown here are all short term, with:
FX and Commodities and Stocks (65%) all under 2 months
S&P500 and Crypto (35%) all under 6 months
I have been long US indices since September or October of 2020 but it was tech100 and I closed it all since then.
33% of my holdings are correlated to the US stock market but I am in the green on the S&P and have guaranteed stops, I have pyramided into my winner over time, so there is actually no major risks there. I am not a professional risk manager and I don't give advice but I don't think I have crazy risks.
No single instrument (a currency, an indice) ever has a leverage over 5 (when adding all pairs or all correlated indices). The max leverage I have been using on a position ever as far as I can recall is 2 (0.25% stop loss with a leverage of 2 = risk of 0.50% on the single position). Anyone who understands elementary school level maths should be able to understand the problem with too much volatility:
A 3% drawdown takes a 3.09% profit to get back to breakeven. This is 3% more (3.09% is 3% more than 3%).
A 10% drawdown takes an 11.11% profit to get back to breakeven. This is 11.11% more.
A 30% drawdown takes a 42.9% profit to get back to breakeven. This is 42.9% more.
A 70% drawdown takes a 233.33% profit to get back to breakeven. Good luck.
Simply since this is short term there will be much more volatility, so careful with leverage! (Indeed, if a long term portfolio had say 15% deviation happen every 100 years, the short term one could have this every 100 months or even 100 weeks).
And then there are the black swan events... They don't happen but when they do it stings. And in one's career they WILL happen.
Bill Hwang got destroyed by having 5 leverage on all his money, concentrated in a few stocks. The "Swiss Franc Tsunami" was a 15% drop. You'd have to be a complete mongrel to get wiped out, that would require over 6 leverage on a single currency. Legend james Cordier had next to 100 leverage divided between only half a dozen commodities, he was riding at least a 10X on NatGas alone. Even if you had 10 leverage on stocks but distributed in 10 a 20% gap down wouldn't wipe you out it's very unlikely they ALL gap down. Don't go 10X in stocks even if diversified, that was just for the example, in the EU it's not even possible anyway max is 5.
I even posted ideas for some of those positions
With Bitcoin I think I post everything. Not sure.
Almost 1 year ago, "buy area visited", hah I actually bought the very bottom. As I said this is nearly 1 year old but I moved to the S&P500 back in April to catch a new swing. 2 different trades within a long term bull bias. Buying pullbacks with tight stops you get stopped often but you also buy the very bottom often. I probably mentioned my transition to the S&P500 somewhere but without details and I don't write every single time I add or take profit or reduce my position.
Might add a bit to crypto if it keeps going. Hopefully I get to short GME soon, should reduce my overall stock risk, maybe. It can always shoot up while the rest crashes down, I don't think this is likely it's a 1/100 thing, it does happen, and you want to make sure you'll survive it, but it doesn't happen that often so it's worth taking the risk.
Typicall I might have something like this:
10 positions
2 wins I'm trailing (> 5R)
3 little wins trying (2.5-4.5R)
5 positions around my entry (between -1R and 2.5R)
I rarely see red in my accounts, losers go quite fast. So mostly I look at positions in the green. It has the benefit of feeling good. Losers hold losers, that simple.
Individual positions are very volatile, I might see a currency pair have a drastic move against me and crush my soul, but then I log in my accounts and I see my overall profits have not moved much, while the 1 pair was crashing 3 other ones sligthly went up. So it makes it more of a slow and steady growth rather than some hysterical bipolar game.
Technical Analysis Vs Fundamental AnalysisTA Vs FA
Both Technical and Fundamental analysis seeks to evaluate an asset.
In my opinion, these 2 major analysis methods are similar more than you think!
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS
The FA involves the financial analysis of an asset by focusing on the underlying factors that affect that asset.
The assumption behind fundamental analysis is that the market does not always value assets (shares commodities, crypto, etc) correctly in the short term. Fundamental analysers try to identify the intrinsic value of assets to buy at a discount or sell at a high.
They believe their investment will pay off over time once the market realises the fundamental value of an asset.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS:
The technical analysis seeks to evaluate a company by:
Using historical price, and
Using Volume data
to assess where the price of a security or market will move in the future.
This means technical analysers are looking at past patterns and trends to see if they are repeatable in the future.
one of the most important items in TA is the trend which shows a continuation of the current situation.
WHY DO I THINK THESE 2 ARE VERY ALIKE?
As mentioned, Fundamental analysis tries to identify the true value of an asset. For example for a company share price, FA will look at the company's balance sheet, cash flow statement, earnings reports, etc.
The technical analysis considers that there is no need to do this hard work as a company’s fundamentals are already accounted for in the price, and the information is reflected in the company’s charts. So we need to look at charts and use indicators to find the best entry prices and the market will follow the trend.
Many times if a financial report surprises traders we will see a spike in the price and depending on the nature of that news and other reports price may change direction or continue the previous trend.
Reversal Zone Indicator / bitcoin litcoinIn this video, I show my most recent indicator that I have created which spots reversal zones based on stochastic RSI indicator combined with MACD indicator.
Potential buy zones are indicated with green columns printed on the chart, and sell zones are in red. a signal is more powerful and accurate whenever its surrounded by black bars before or after.
The cicles of the volume peaks for intraday trading GOLDThese are the most volume supported price action times, which give a clear direction and positioning of big traders that move the markets. Between 14hrs and 15hrs (UTC+1) there is a high volume entry.
Entrys must be done before that time or during the entry of volume , which is a gradual process until it reaches the highest point of the peak. That understanding of the movement and the pattern of human behavior behind is one of the most important aspects of technical analysis and must be mastered.
Gold: How to Combine Technical & Fundamental To Get Best ResultsWhat Does Market Really Follow?
We all know that market is normally run by based on Technical Analysis, Fundamental Analysis, and Trading Sentiment. If you want to get a high result on your trade, you must combine these 3 analyses.
As USD and Gold both are safe-haven currencies and reserve currencies as well. USD and Gold have a negative co-relation. If the USD rise, Gold will drop. If the USD drops Gold will rise.
Which Fundamental Factors Are Responsible for Golds Move?
1. US Economical Reports
2. World Wide Economic Conditions
3. Man-made or Natural Disaster (For the moment Covid Situations)
4. Political or Economic Crisis
5. Central Bank's Rate Decision and some other reasons.
What to Do Firstly?
You must have a look at US economic reports. US job Market Report, CPI, Manufacturing Reports, and FED economic Overview. If most of the fundamental reports are positive from the USA, that means fundamentally USD is in a good position, which means Gold has a chance to drop.
especially CPI / Inflation reports are important for hiking bank rates. So, if you see recent most of the high-impact reports are positive, that means gold has more chance that it will drop and FED is going to deliver the hawkish statement. FED's hawkish statement will give an extra benefit to USD what is negative for Gold.
What to Do Secondly
Now see your technical chart. A trading view has many awesome tools to draw your Technical Charts. Personally, I do follow pure price action. Based on your chart analysis, find an entry rate, exit rates, and where the stop loss and profit should be put. You can use any kind of technical tools, indicators of what is suitable for you.
What To Do Thirdly?
To get the trading sentiment, Option expiry and Cot reports will help you a lot. Especially cot reports are free, so check last cot reports. Day Traders usually follow non-Commercial contract positions. if you are a day trader checks a non-commercial contract. if most of the contracts are in a short mode, that means banks, hedge funds, and other financial authorities are selling more.
commercial contracts are also very important. because they are big guns and big companies. you should also check their position. Non-Reputable contracts are not really important.
How Will I Combine Technical and Fundamental Analysis and implement to my trade?
This is the final part. If you see most of the US economic reports are positive in recent months, especially job market reports, manufacturing reports, and Inflation reports. In this case, most of the time FED delivers a hawkish statement. So, you think for Buying USD and Sell Gold.
If you see US Economic reports are not supportive, then think about selling USD and buying Gold.
This is the first part. I will write details about it in my second part. till then keep reading.
If you think this article helped you then, like, comment, and share with your trader's community.