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Why Knowledgeable Traders Lose MoneyI've been trading for 20+ years and I believe I have almost seen it all. I've had big winning trades, and huge losses. Some of my biggest wins came when I was a beginner aka fomo trader, and my biggest losses came when I become more knowledgeable of the market. My most consistent trading came in my latter years when I gained experience and felt real pain, and I would like to share what I observed. I believe most retail traders naturally follow the same path if they stay solvent and interested enough to stick through it. 1. Beginner trader (1st year trading) : These traders generally tend to be profitable. You can call it beginners luck, but it's what gets most people to learn more about trading and put them into the 2nd class of traders (knowledgeable traders), which are the losers in the market. You can recognize a beginner trader as they believe in generalities. Those who believe "stonks only go up bro", yes they likely outperform you. It's only a matter of time before they don't, but this is where they get their confidence to invest more. 2. Knowledgeable trader : I believe most Tradingview users fall into this category. They likely had some great luck starting out by fomoing into a stock that was in an uptrend which made them want to learn more about trading, and with this newfound knowledge and tools like Tradingview they can't figure out why they are consistently losing money. They theorize in the back of their mind that the more they learned, the more they lost, and they are correct, but it's hard to accept this realization. The frustration they feel only leads to further losses which results from deleting stop losses because they're sick of losing. These are traders who upgraded their account to margin trading and they now have the awesome ability to short stocks. They imagine catching the top of a trending market and riding it all the way down. It's a fantasy I believe we all shared at one point. Instead of trading with the trend, they trade in the direction of their emotions, namely disbelief. They believe stocks are too oversold or overbought, and they look for setups to match their bias. In general, they are against the long term trend which makes their amazing setups likely to fail. When they're stuck in a trade, they resort to media and other traders to give them hope that the market will go their way. In general, the media is only adding to the traders disbelief and giving them false hope. Most traders fit into this category, and they are part of the reason for these extreme trends. They consistently get squeezed by going against the market, adding fuel to the trend. High frequency traders / institutions make a killing running these traders out of the market, while the beginner traders enjoy the gains from their fomo trades which are generally aligned with the trend of the market. 3. Experienced trader : These are traders who have been trading for 4 or more years and have stayed solvent enough to make it through phase #2. They have likely lost a lot of money trying to catch reversals and they has since realized most money is to be made in the middle by trading with the long term trend within the context of larger patterns. They also know how to take a stop loss and see it as an opportunity for a new trade. They realize they are wrong at least 40% of the time and they are at peace with it. They still get frustrated when a trade doesn't go their way, but they know this is a game of risk and reward, it's not about fortune telling. They know they will generally feel more pain if they don't take their stop, and while they may delete their stop in their weakest moments, the largest majority of the time they take the stop or exit with a loss before the loss becomes greater. The hardest part is knowing it's okay to be wrong, and it's okay be to be stopped out 4 or 5 times in a row and not be a failure. They see themselves as risk managers, not traders. They know there is no such thing as oversold or overbought, and have likely removed stoch and RSI indicators as they cause fomo to bet against a trend. They know nothing is oversold or overbought unless price reaches an area of extreme on a higher time frame chart or price is contained inside of a large well defined pattern that at least appears on an hourly chart that spans for days if not weeks. This analysis will likely not help anyone as emotions overpower logic 20:1. Most traders need to feel enough pain before they transition from phase 2 to phase 3, it's not something that can be taught. They need the financial and emotional scars. They need the natural feeling of pain in the moment they feel they might delete their stop loss or bet against a trend when the price is not at strong resistance / support in a longer term pattern. In general human behavior, most people have a plan but the plan is usually thrown out the window in the moment a decision has to be made. The purpose of this analysis is just to let you know that it's okay to be in the middle, and if you can at least have the control to trade with smaller amounts when you're in phase 2, you'll one day likely make it to phase 3. This analysis wont make anyone transition from a phase 2 to a phase 3 trader, I mainly wanted to make it clear that your emotions will likely continue to rule your trading, even in phase 3, the big difference is that you'll naturally feel pain before you make a mistake a phase 2 trader will make. Embrace your scars and the journey ahead.
CME_MINI:NQM2020Education
by ttrending
51
WHAT TOPICS WOULD YOU LIKE ME TO COVER?Hi Guys - all my followers and non followers.. I am getting back to releasing weekly episode/episodes of the ' Art of trading Psychology' in the aim of helping traders get in the 'zone' when trading. Mastering trading psychology is by far one of the hardest aspects in trading yet it is also the one that will drive you to you success as a trader if mastered. I would truly love to cater this podcast to you guys and in order to do so, i need to understand what it is you're struggling with and what you would like to cover i.e - finding taking profit hard? - being consistent - scared to take a trade or uneasy when you're in a trade? - Losing too much? Anything you think of, drop it in the comments below or message me!!
Education
by Malika_Analysis
PETER SCHIFF VS JEFF SNIDER!THIS POST WILL HELP YOU UNDERSTAND THE COMPETING VIEW POINTS ON THE FUTURE PERFORMANCE OF THE U.S. DOLLAR RELATIVE TO OTHER CURRENCIES! JEFF SNIDER'S POSITION ON THE DOLLAR: THE U.S. DOLLAR IS STRONG BECAUSE OF A SHORTAGE OF DOLLARS WORLDWIDE TO CONDUCT GLOBAL TRADE IN, DUE TO TO FED'S INABILITY TO TRULY SATISFY DEMAND FOR U$Ds, AND WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AS LONG AS FOREIGN CURRENCIES ARE SOLD TO BUY U$Ds. PETER SCHIFF'S POSITION ON THE DOLLAR: THE U.S. DOLLAR IS STRONG BECAUSE OF AN IRRATIONAL FAITH IN THE U.S. ECONOMY BY FOREIGNERS AND THE WILLINGNESS OF PRODUCTIVE ECONOMIES WORLDWIDE TO USE AND ACCEPT PRINTED U.S. DOLLARS IN GLOBAL TRADE, SUBSIDIZING THE CONSUMPTION AND TRADE DEFICIT OF THE U.S. JEFF SNIDER'S POSITION ON U.S. TREASURIES: THE U.S. GOVERNMENT BOND MARKET HAS BEEN BID HIGHER FOR DECADES AS U.S. TREASURIES PROVIDE THE SAFEST SOURCE OF U$Ds AND ARE THE MOST ACCEPTED FORM OF COLLATERAL FOR U$D LEVERAGE. IF U$D LIQUIDITY BECOMES CONSTRAINED ENOUGH WORLDWIDE, A SELL-OFF IN THE GLOBAL U.S. TREASURY MARKET CAN OCCUR AS AS THEY ARE SOLD FOR THE IMMEDIATELY NEEDED U$Ds, RAISING INTEREST RATES THROUGHOUT THE FINANCIAL SYSTEM AND THE ECONOMY. PETER SCHFF'S POSITION ON U.S. TREASURIES: THE FEDERAL RESERVE'S ARTIFICIAL SUPPRESSION OF INTEREST RATES SINCE THE 1990's THROUGH QE, COUPLED WITH THE USE OF U$Ds IN GLOBAL TRADE AND THE IRRATIONAL FAITH BY FOREIGNERS THAT THE FEDERAL RESERVE COULD SHRINK ITS BALANCE SHEET AND NORMALIZE INTEREST RATES HAS LED TO FOREIGN CAPITAL BIDDING UP THE PRICE OF U.S. GOVERNMENT BONDS. ONCE THAT FAITH IN THE DOLLAR'S SCARCITY IS DIMINISHED AND PRODUCTIVE ECONOMIES WORLDWIDE REFUSE TO HOLD/ACCEPT U$Ds AND SUBSIDIZE AMERICAN CONSUMPTION, U.S. TREASURIES WILL BE SOLD-OFF, RAISING INTEREST RATES THROUGHOUT THE FINANCIAL SYSTEM AND THE ECONOMY. JEFF SNIDER'S VIEW ON THE FUTURE OF THE DOLLAR: AS LONG AS THE FEDERAL RESERVE FAILS TO ADDRESS THE COMPLEX NEED FOR U$Ds AND AS LONG AS THE U$D REMAINS THE WORLD RESERVE CURRENCY, DEMAND WILL OUTPACE SUPPLY, AND THE U$D WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AGAINST OTHER CURRENCIES UNTIL A CULMINATION OF DEFAULTS AND RESTRUCTURING RAVAGES THE COUNTRIES WITH THE MOST SEVERE LACK OF U$Ds, SENDING THE U$D SKY HIGH, LEADING TO AN ABANDONMENT OF THE U$D AS WORLD RESERVE CURRENCY. PETER SCHIFF'S VIEW ON THE FUTURE OF THE DOLLAR: ONCE PRODUCTIVE COUNTRIES WORLDWIDE BECOME DISILLUSIONED WITH THE AMOUNT OF EASILY CREATED U$Ds CHASING PRICES, THE APPETITE TO ACCEPT THOSE U$Ds IN EXCHANGE FOR GOODS/SERVICES AT CURRENT PRICES WILL DIMINISH, ALONG WITH THE DESIRE TO HOLD U$Ds, U.S. ASSETS AND U.S. TREASURIES. ONCE U$Ds AND U$Ds OBTAINED THROUGH THE SALE OF U.S. ASSETS AND U.S. TREASURIES ARE SOLD FOR OTHER CURRENCIES, THE U$D WILL WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY, FURTHER INCREASING THE PRICES OF IMPORTED GOODS/SERVICES, SENDING THE U$D INTO AN INFLATIONARY SPIRAL, MARKING ITS END AS THE WORLD RESERVE CURRENCY. IN THIS CASE, IF THE FEDERAL RESERVE MONETIZED THE SOLD U.S. TREASURIES TO PREVENT INTEREST RATES FROM RISING, THIS COULD EASILY LEAD TO HYPERINFLATION. -IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT THE 0% YIELD ON U.S. 10 YEAR GOVERNMENT BOND IS A DANGER ZONE IN EITHER CASE, AS FOREIGN ENTITIES WILL NO LONGER HAVE AN INCENTIVE TO HOLD U.S. TREASURIES, PREFERRING CASH, GOLD OR OTHER ASSETS OVER A NEGATIVE YIELDING BOND. -THE NOTES ON THE CHART OFFER CONTRIBUTING FACTORS AS TO WHY YIELDS BOTTOMED OR PEAKED AT VARIOUS POINTS DURING THIS BOND BULL MARKET.
TVC:US10YEducation
by UnknownUnicorn4195243
SILVER (XAGUSD) Key Levels a lot of questions about silver! currently, I don't have any active positions. I have alerts placed on key levels, I will look at the reaction of the market to the underlined levels on the lower timeframe. here are the key levels: 16.7 is our current strong support 17.55 is our current resistance (due to a strong bullish rally it can just easily be broken, so don't jump in aggressively) 18.55 is resistance 2 19.55 is resistance 3 trade key levels only with a confirmation. let me know if you want to see more structure analysis!
OANDA:XAGUSDEducation
by VasilyTrader
7
Update - My post April 2, 2020, "Bitcoin & Big Oil" Update - My post April 2, 2020, "Bitcoin & Big Oil" . First point of interest - Using MACD of USOIL (WTI) point before precipitous decline. See what happened when bitcoin closed month end above $365 NOV 2015 and thereafter. Notice in each case c.55% drop before rise. Bitcoin has yet to close out month above $9084.7. Second point of interest - Monthly Dollar Index if close below 98.82 (Mid point of volatility Mar 2020) see what happened to SPX when closed below 95.48 (Mid point of volatility Aug 2015) March 2016. NOT ADVICE. DYOR.
TVC:USOILEducation
by UnknownUnicorn2181194