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GBPUSD1. UK 10-Year Gilt Yield The UK 10-year gilt yield was approximately 4.68% to 4.73% on May 23, 2025. This yield is near its highest level since April 2025, driven by hotter-than-expected inflation data (April CPI at 3.5% YoY, core inflation at 3.8%, and services inflation at 5.4%) which reduced market expectations for Bank of England (BoE) rate cuts. 2. US 10-Year Treasury Yield The US 10-year Treasury yield was around 4.54% on May 21–22, 2025. US yields remain elevated due to ongoing fiscal concerns and inflation expectations, though slightly below the UK yields. 3. Interest Rate Differential (UK vs. US) The interest rate differential between UK and US 10-year yields is: 4.68% (UK)−4.54% (US)=+0.14% This small positive differential favors the GBP slightly, suggesting UK bonds offer marginally higher returns than US Treasuries. 4. Bond Price Implications Bond prices move inversely to yields. Given yields have risen in both the UK and US, bond prices have declined correspondingly. The slightly higher UK yields imply UK bond prices have fallen a bit more relative to US Treasuries. Rising yields reflect market concerns about inflation persistence and monetary policy tightening. 5. Impact on GBP/USD The modest yield advantage for the UK supports some GBP strength versus USD. However, broader market moves in GBP/USD on May 23 were influenced more by a weakening USD than a strong GBP. Inflation data and BoE’s cautious rate cut expectations underpin gilt yields and provide some support for GBP. Summary Table Metric UK (GBP) US (USD) 10-Year Bond Yield (%) ~4.68% - 4.73% (May 23, 2025) ~4.54% (May 21-22, 2025) Interest Rate Differential +0.14% (UK over US) — Bond Price Trend Declining (due to rising yields) Declining (rising yields) Inflation (UK CPI YoY) 3.5% (April 2025) Higher but easing in US GBP/USD Exchange Rate Supported by yield spread and weaker USD — Conclusion On May 23, 2025, the UK 10-year gilt yield was slightly higher than the US 10-year Treasury yield by about 14 basis points, reflecting stronger UK inflation and reduced expectations of BoE rate cuts. This small interest rate differential provides modest support for the GBP against the USD. Rising yields in both markets have pushed bond prices lower. However, the GBP/USD exchange rate movement on that day was influenced more by USD weakness amid geopolitical and economic factors than by the yield differential alone. traders should pay attention to monthly chart for clear directional bias.
by Shavyfxhub
EURUSD1. 10-Year Bond Yields Eurozone 10-year government bond yield: 3.17% on May 22, 2025, slightly up from 3.15% the previous day and 3.10% a year ago. This yield is above the long-term average of 2.48%, reflecting rising inflation and monetary tightening in the Eurozone. US 10-year Treasury yield: Approximately 4.54% on May 21, 2025. The yield has been rising due to concerns about US fiscal policy, inflation, and Federal Reserve tightening, despite market expectations of rate cuts later in the year. 2. Interest Rate Differential (IRD) The interest rate differential between US and Eurozone 10-year bonds is roughly: 4.54% (US)−3.17% (Eurozone)=1.37% This differential favors the US dollar, as higher US yields attract capital inflows, strengthening the USD relative to the EUR. The differential reflects more aggressive Fed tightening compared to the European Central Bank’s (ECB) more cautious approach amid slower Eurozone growth. 3. Bond Prices Bond prices move inversely to yields. With US yields higher and rising, US bond prices have declined relative to Eurozone bonds. Eurozone bond prices have also fallen but less sharplyength against EUR. 4. Impact on EUR/USD Exchange Rate On May 23, 2025, EUR/USD rose slightly to about 1.1368, up from 1.1281 the previous session, influenced by short-term USD weakness amid geopolitical concerns but still pressured by the yield differential favoring USD. The yield differential remains a key fundamental driver of EUR/USD trends over medium to long term. Conclusion The EUR/USD 10-year bond yield differential of about 1.37% in favor of the US reflects divergent monetary policies and inflation expectations. This differential supports USD strength relative to EUR by attracting capital flows into higher-yielding US assets. Bond price movements correspondingly favor US bonds due to rising yields. While short-term geopolitical and market factors can cause fluctuations, the interest rate differential remains a fundamental driver of EUR/USD exchange rate trends in 2025.
Long
by Shavyfxhub
SMR NNE OKLO – Breakout Setup Triggered by Nuclear CatalystNYSE:SMR is lighting up after Trump’s announcement on nuclear energy — and it’s not alone. NYSE:OKLO and NASDAQ:NNE are also setting up, but NYSE:SMR has one of the cleanest breakout structures on the board. 🔹 Catalyst: Trump’s nuclear energy announcement yesterday is putting serious momentum behind the sector. 🔹 Technical Setup: NYSE:SMR is building a textbook breakout formation, with $32 as the key breakout level. 🔹 Volume & sentiment are increasing — early signs that buyers are positioning. My Trade Plan: 1️⃣ Anticipatory Entry: I’m looking to buy the first dip before the $32 breakout — getting in early with tight risk. 2️⃣ Add on Breakout: Will scale in above $32 if volume confirms. 3️⃣ Stop Loss: Just below the recent base — staying tight on risk. Why I’m Watching This Closely: Sector catalyst + technical setup = 🔥 Nuclear names have been under accumulation, and now they’ve got a narrative tailwind. First dip after a big catalyst is often the best R/R opportunity.
NYSE:OKLOLong
by kunal00
8
CANADIAN GOVERNMENT 10 YEAR BOND YIELD. CA10YThe Canada 10-year government bond yield (CA10Y) plays a significant role in influencing the Canadian dollar (CAD) in the forex market.the following are key take home . 1. Interest Rate Expectations and Monetary Policy Signaling The 10-year bond yield reflects market expectations of future interest rates and inflation. When the CA10Y rises (currently around 3.35%–3.38% in May 2025), it signals expectations of tighter monetary policy or higher inflation, which tends to strengthen the CAD as investors anticipate higher returns on Canadian assets. Conversely, falling yields suggest easing monetary policy or weaker growth, putting downward pressure on the CAD. 2. Impact on Capital Flows Higher 10-year yields attract foreign investors seeking better returns on Canadian government debt, increasing demand for the CAD to purchase these bonds. This inflow of capital supports the Canadian dollar’s value relative to other currencies. 3. Relationship with US Treasury Yields and Interest Rate Differentials The CAD is sensitive to the yield differential between Canadian 10-year bonds and US 10-year Treasuries. When Canadian yields rise relative to US yields, the CAD tends to appreciate due to the more attractive yield environment. Currently, the Canadian 10-year yield is around 3.38%, while the US 10-year yield is higher (~4.5%), which partly explains USD strength over CAD but also highlights potential for CAD appreciation if the differential narrows. 4. Economic Growth and Inflation Signals The CA10Y incorporates expectations about Canada’s economic growth and inflation. Recent data shows mixed inflation signals: headline CPI falling to 1.7% YoY but core inflation rising to 3.1%, suggesting the Bank of Canada may maintain a restrictive stance, supporting bond yields and the CAD. Trade tensions and tariffs create uncertainty, but a resilient Canadian economy and narrowing trade deficit also help support yields and the currency. 5. Bond Prices and Yield Movements Bond prices move inversely to yields. When yields rise, bond prices fall, which can cause volatility in fixed income markets. Rising yields may reflect concerns about inflation or fiscal sustainability, but also attract investors, supporting the CAD through increased demand for Canadian assets. Summary Factor Effect on CAD Rising CA10Y Signals tighter policy, attracts capital → CAD appreciation Falling CA10Y Signals easing or weaker growth → CAD depreciation Yield differential vs. US Narrowing gap supports CAD; widening gap favors USD Inflation and economic outlook Mixed inflation supports restrictive policy → supports CAD Trade and fiscal risks Increase uncertainty, may weigh on CAD Conclusion The Canada 10-year bond yield is a key barometer of monetary policy expectations, inflation, and economic health, all of which influence the Canadian dollar’s value. Rising yields generally strengthen the CAD by attracting investment and signaling tighter policy, while falling yields suggest the opposite. The yield’s interaction with US Treasury yields and broader economic fundamentals shapes CAD movements in current times .
TVC:CA10YShort
by Shavyfxhub
2
AUDCADAUD/CAD 10-Year Bond Yield Differential and Carry Trade Advantage from technically perspective .the current10year bond yields of Australia as at Friday close of the market is 4.39% approx. while that of Canada is 3.35% .the spread is 1.044% reinforcing the AUD's yield advantage. interest rate differential: +1.04% (AUD over CAD) Carry Trade Advantage The 1.04% yield spread makes AUD/CAD attractive for carry traders, who borrow low-yielding CAD to invest in higher-yielding AUD assets. For example: Borrowing CAD at 3.35% and investing in AUD bonds at 4.39% generates a 1.04% annualized return (before currency fluctuations). This spread is modest compared to pairs like GBP/JPY (3.21%), but still offers opportunities in stable market conditions. Key Drivers of the Yield Differential Australia (AUD): The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cut rates to 3.85% in May 2025, citing progress on inflation and global uncertainty from US tariffs. Despite the cut, Australia’s 10-year yield remains elevated due to strong commodity exports (e.g., iron ore) and resilient growth. Canada (CAD): The Bank of Canada (BoC) maintains a restrictive policy stance, with inflation pressures persisting (trimmed-mean CPI at 3.1% in April). Canada’s 10-year yield has risen to a four-month high (3.35%) but lags behind AUD due to weaker commodity diversification and trade risks with the US. Risks to the Carry Trade Currency Volatility: AUD/CAD is in a bearish technical trend, with key support at 0.8953 and resistance at 0.9080. A breakdown could erase carry gains. US-China trade tensions and Trump’s proposed tariffs on allies like Canada add volatility, potentially weakening AUD further. Policy Shifts: The RBA may ease further if global growth slows, narrowing the yield spread. The BoC’s hawkish tilt could strengthen CAD if inflation remains sticky. Commodity Prices: AUD relies on iron ore and coal exports, while CAD is tied to oil. Diverging commodity trends could offset yield advantages. Conclusion The 1.04% yield differential provides a modest carry trade advantage for AUD/CAD. However, traders must weigh this against: Bearish technical trends threatening AUD depreciation. Geopolitical risks (US tariffs, China slowdown) impacting both currencies. Divergent central bank policies (RBA easing vs. BoC holding). While the yield spread supports long AUD/CAD positions, risk management (e.g., hedging currency exposure) is critical to preserve returns in volatile conditions. The interest rate differential (IRD) between Australia and Canada is critically important for traders considering long or short positions on the AUD/CAD currency pair because it directly influences capital flows, currency demand, and the profitability of carry trades. Here’s why: 1. Driver of Currency Demand and Supply When Australian interest rates are higher than Canadian rates, Australian assets (like government bonds) become more attractive to investors seeking higher returns. This increases demand for the Australian dollar (AUD) as foreign investors buy AUD to invest in these assets. Conversely, if Canadian rates rise relative to Australian rates, the Canadian dollar (CAD) gains appeal, increasing demand for CAD and potentially weakening AUD/CAD. Thus, the IRD affects the flow of funds between the two countries, impacting the exchange rate. 2. Impact on Carry Trade Strategy The carry trade involves borrowing in a currency with a lower interest rate and investing in a currency with a higher interest rate to profit from the yield difference. For AUD/CAD, if Australia’s interest rates exceed Canada’s, traders can borrow CAD at lower rates and invest in AUD assets, earning the positive interest rate differential as profit (known as rollover or swap gains). This makes long AUD/CAD positions attractive when the IRD is positive. Conversely, a negative IRD discourages such trades or favors short AUD/CAD positions. 3. Exchange Rate Movements Changes in the IRD signal shifts in monetary policy, economic strength, and inflation expectations, all of which influence exchange rates. For example, if the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) raises rates or signals tightening while the Bank of Canada (BoC) remains steady or cuts rates, the IRD widens, typically leading to AUD appreciation against CAD. Traders use IRD as a fundamental indicator to anticipate currency appreciation or depreciation. 4. Risk and Market Sentiment Considerations While IRD is a key factor, traders also consider risks such as geopolitical events, commodity price fluctuations (e.g., oil for Canada, iron ore for Australia), and overall market volatility. A favorable IRD can be offset by adverse risk factors, so traders combine IRD analysis with other economic and technical indicators. above all never forget market structure while making critical trade decision.
Short
by Shavyfxhub
3
Weekly FOREX Forecast: USD Weakness Continues. Buy The Majors!This is the FOREX futures outlook for the week of May 25 - 31st.. In this video, we will analyze the following FX markets: USD Index EUR GBP AUD NZD CAD CHF JPY USD Index has been bearish for weeks. Expect that to continue as Trump threatens EUR and Apple with tariffs. Buying against the USD is the best bet. Notice the other major currencies charts are showing bullish price action in the form of Bullish Flags or prices nearing buy side liquidity. Run with the bulls! Enjoy! May profits be upon you. Leave any questions or comments in the comment section. I appreciate any feedback from my viewers! Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis. Thank you so much! Disclaimer: I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor. All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies. I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here. Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
by RT_Money
My first recording for ETHUSD - FxDollars - {25/05/2025}Educational Analysis says that ETHUSD may give countertrend opportunities from this range, according to my technical analysis. Broker - bitstamp So, my analysis is based on a top-down approach from weekly to trend range to internal trend range. So my analysis comprises of two structures: 1) Break of structure on weekly range and 2) Trading Range to fill the remaining fair value gap Let's see what this pair brings to the table for us in the future. Please check the comment section to see how this turned out. DISCLAIMER:- This is not an entry signal. THIS IS FOR EDUCATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY. I HAVE NO CONCERNS WITH YOUR PROFIT OR LOSS, Happy Trading, Fx Dollars.
BITSTAMP:ETHUSD
by VishalBudhrani
USDCHF Analysis Today: Technical and Order Flow Analysis !In this video I will be sharing my USDCHF analysis today, by providing my complete technical and order flow analysis, so you can watch it to possibly improve your forex trading skillset. The video is structured in 3 parts, first I will be performing my complete technical analysis, then I will be moving to the COT data analysis, so how the big payers in market are moving their orders, and to do this I will be using my customized proprietary software and then I will be putting together these two different types of analysis.
by Transparent_Fx_Academy
5
24th May 2025Bitcoin just made its ATH in the last week, 112.000 creating a change of character, also the candle in th Daily timeframe closed positive (above previous ATH 109k) Waiting for the close on the weekly. OTHERS is at 268.47B market cap, my expectation is OTHERS to increase more to catch up with BTC rally. Bearish Case: -War between Ukraine and Russia intensifies. (Increasing) -Mayor war conflict. -Japan bond market. -Stock market crash. -QT (High Interest rates). Bullish Case: -Lowering Interest rates. -Increasing M2 global money supply. -Bond market ??? - No recession fears.
CRYPTOCAP:OTHERSLong
by ipaladin
Stock Markets, Gold, Silver: Run With The Bulls!In this Weekly Market Forecast, we will analyze the S&P 500, NASDAQ, DOW JONES, Gold and Silver futures, for the week of May 25 - 31st. The Stock Markets are bullish, so run with valid buy setups when they form. Gold and Silver are relatively strong. With tensions in Gaza and Iran, this is expected. Valid buys should be taken. Crude Oil is a tad bearish due to US inventories, so valid sells are warranted in the short term. Enjoy! May profits be upon you. Leave any questions or comments in the comment section. I appreciate any feedback from my viewers! Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis. Thank you so much! Disclaimer: I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor. All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies. I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here. Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by RT_Money
1