Pre NFP (Possible 200 Pips on USDJPY)I’m currently positioned long on this market, targeting 153.000, with the expectation that the NFP release will inject some strength into the Dollar, driving price toward that key level. From there, my plan is to shift gears and look for a swing short opportunity, aiming for the 145.00 region—a move that could net over 700 pips.
The logic here is simple: a surge in Dollar strength could create the perfect momentum for an upward push, but once price reaches the target zone, it opens the door for a broader corrective move. Of course, if the market doesn’t deliver on this scenario, I’ll hold back, stay calm, and wait for a clear and decisive opposing bias to present itself. Flexibility and patience always win the game.
Community ideas
What is Bitcoin ‘Pairs Trading’? (Example: ETH/BTC)This is for anybody who wants to sell some Bitcoin but is still bullish crypto. 🚀
It’s also if you’re neutral on crypto but think Bitcoin is overvalued vs other tokens.
It’s also just if you’re just interested to see a way to apply a pairs trading strategy .
In case you’ve been hiding under a rock, Bitcoin just broke over $100k - No more waiting for the HODLRS!!
Naturally after hitting this massive milestone, some traders are going to be thinking about taking profits. And if they’re thinking it, some of them are going to be doing it.
But let’s forget about selling for a moment, are you really buying more BTC when it just hit $100k and it's up ~150% this year?
So even if there is not more active selling interest, there’s probably less buying interest.
I think you’d be mad (or very brave) to bet against Bitcoin. BUT
Are these scenarios possible?
Bitcoin trades sideways for a while after hitting $100k
Alt season kicks in and other cryptos play catchup
If you think yes to at least one of these, my team and me have been looking at a pairs trade
What is pairs trading?
Pairs trading in crypto is a market-neutral trading strategy that involves taking a long position in one cryptocurrency and a short position in another, based on the assumption that their historical price relationship will revert to the mean.
The point is to profit from the relative price movement between the two assets, i.e. not the absolute ups or downs of one asset like Bitcoin.
ETH/BTC
I put this crypto pair this way around - I’m not sure if you’re meant to - it just kind of reminds me of EUR/USD in forex trading.
So as a reminder, ETH/BTC is Ethereum’s token Ether priced in Bitcoin. When Ether outperforms Bitcoin it goes up and when Ether underperforms Bitcoin, it goes down.
So it doesn’t actually matter if Bitcoin goes up, down or sideways, if you’re trading ETH/BTC - what matters is what one does relative to the other.
Well this thing has been going down a lot! Until recently.
Going back to the idea of pairs trading - the thesis here is that the Ethererum/Bitcoin price ratio has dropped to bargain levels and could be about to recover.
I’m not going to lie to you - there are a lot of sore hands out there from trying to catch this falling knife!
But this rebound off the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the 2020-21 rally has caught our attention.
Dropping to the daily chart, can you see how 0.4000 has acted like a magnet to the price both from above and below?
0.4 is our line in the sand for long positions.
Equally, our risk is well defined in this setup. A drop back under the 61.8% Fib level around 0.32 means the idea isn’t working and it's time to get out and let Bitcoin do its thing!
How to trade it
Specific entries and exits depend on your personal risk tolerance, but broadly there are THREE methods here:
1. Crypto-to-Crypto Spot Trading
Trade ETH directly for BTC (or vice versa) on a cryptocurrency exchange. This is straightforward and involves holding the actual assets.
2. CFD Trading (Contracts for Difference)
Speculate on ETH/BTC price movements using CFDs without owning the underlying cryptocurrencies. This allows for leverage and the ability to short-sell.
3. Spread Trading
Buy ETH and simultaneously short BTC (or vice versa) with equal dollar value to profit from their relative price movement while minimizing exposure to overall market trends.
But that’s just how we are seeing things?
Do you think this is bananas, or could we be onto something?
Please let us know in the comments
Cheers!
Jasper. Chief Market Analyst, Trading Writers
NAS100 Update and Trading The Fakey Shakey👀 👉 In this video, we revisit the price action covered in a previous upload—an aspect I often emphasize in my videos. The NAS100 offers a classic example of the "fake shaky" chart pattern and key signals to watch for as price moves away from critical support or resistance zones. We also explore a common trap that traders can fall into. As always, this is not financial advice. 📊✅
NAS100 NASDAQ Technical Analysis and Trade Idea👀 👉 While the NAS100 has maintained a bullish trend, recent price action shows signs of consolidation within a sideways range. Historically, price has often retraced significantly following strong rallies—could we be on the brink of another pullback? In this video, we delve into the trend, price action, market structure, and a potential trade setup. Disclaimer:* Trading carries significant risk, and market conditions can shift rapidly. This video is for educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. 📊✅
XAUUSD GOLD Scalp / Day Trade Idea👀 👉 In this video, we analyze the 4-hour chart, highlighting a clear break of structure with evident lower lows and lower highs. While my bias leans toward a short opportunity, we explore both scenarios: a potential long opportunity if the price breaks upward, and a possible short opportunity if it breaks downward. As always, this is not financial advice. 📈
HOW TO TRADE USING CHOCH IN ICT SMART MONEY CONCEPTHere in this video i show you how you can trade using choch . I explain how change of character work and how it can be applied using indicator also . Understanding Choch can make you a better trader if you use well so try to mark out break of strusture (BOS) then find out were the price unable to respect that in other to get CHOCH.
Crypto take profit zonesIn this quick video, i just wanted to update everyone with what i am seeing. i wanted to share the game plan to take profit in the crypto market. I go over a few different charts but if you guys have any specific charts that you need please send me a message and ill try to give you a quick snapshot of the roadmap from my perspective.
good luck out there and please take profit when its time. i would hate for you guys to hold during the next bear market
GOLDTHE unemployment claims rose to 224k beating the 215k forecast, unemployment claims shows the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week;
the number of unemployed people is an important signal of overall economic health because consumer spending is highly correlated with labor-market conditions.
despite the figure the sell was on sentiment and broke a demand floor to keep gold in the supply zone.
On Friday December 6th we also have major economic data by 2;30 like (1)Average Hourly Earnings m/m (2) Non-Farm Employment Change (3)Unemployment Rate and by 3:15pm FOMC Member Bowman Speaks.
it will be volatility premium as buyers and sellers will react in any direction on sentiment and on risk averse.
Market in waitingThe daily structure in the S&P 500 market implies profit-taking and the market in waiting as jobs numbers are released on Friday. The tone of these numbers will set expectations for future Fed action and whether this market will be confident going into the weekend with an up close. How the market will respond is 50-50 in terms of whether a will be up or down.