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AUDJPYReserve Bank of Australia (RBA): Current cash rate: 4.10% (expected to cut to 3.85% on May 20). RBA on a dovish pivot driven by progress on inflation (trimmed mean CPI: 2.9% in Q1) and global trade risks. Bank of Japan (BoJ): Current policy rate: 0.50% (held steady in May). Outlook: BoJ signaled potential hikes if economic conditions improve, but weak GDP (-0.7% annualized in Q1) and U.S. tariffs (24% on Japanese goods) limit tightening scope The upcoming Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) rate cut, widely expected to be a 25 basis point reduction at the May 20, 2025 meeting, is anticipated to have a short-term bearish impact on AUD/JPY, primarily by putting downward pressure on the Australian dollar (AUD) relative to the Japanese yen (JPY). Here’s why: Key Points on the Impact of the RBA Rate Cut on AUD/JPY AUD Under Pressure Due to Rate Cut Expectations: Growing market consensus around the RBA’s rate cut has already led to AUD depreciation, causing AUD/JPY to edge lower below the 92.21 level as of late April 2025. Lower interest rates reduce the yield advantage of the AUD, making it less attractive to carry traders and investors seeking higher returns. Economic Uncertainties and Trade Outlook: The RBA’s cautious, data-dependent approach amid rising economic uncertainties and global trade tensions (especially U.S.-China relations) adds to downward momentum for AUD/JPY. However, signs of easing U.S.-China trade tensions could provide some support to the AUD, limiting the downside. JPY Dynamics: The Japanese yen has weakened recently due to reduced safe-haven demand amid improving global trade sentiment, which has somewhat offset AUD weakness. However, ongoing expectations of further Bank of Japan (BoJ) rate hikes in 2025 support the yen, applying pressure on AUD/JPY. Moderating Factors: Reduced Aggressive Rate Cut Bets: Recent data, including a hotter-than-expected Australian Wage Price Index, has tempered expectations for aggressive RBA cuts, which could limit AUD/JPY losses. BoJ Policy Outlook: BoJ’s commitment to possible further rate hikes supports the yen, creating a headwind for AUD/JPY. Technical and Sentiment Outlook: The pair has paused recent gains and is vulnerable to further downside if the RBA confirms the cut and signals a cautious path forward. However, dip-buying interest could emerge on declines due to improving trade optimism and softer USD dynamics. Summary Factor Impact on AUD/JPY RBA 25 bps rate cut (May 20) Bearish AUD, downward pressure Signs of easing US-China trade Potential support for AUD BoJ rate hike expectations Yen strength, bearish for AUD/JPY Wage growth in Australia Limits aggressive AUD weakness Global trade sentiment Supports yen weakness, offsets AUD pressure Conclusion The anticipated RBA rate cut is expected to weigh on AUD/JPY in the short term, primarily due to reduced yield appeal of the AUD. However, improving global trade sentiment and tempered expectations for aggressive rate cuts may cushion losses. The yen’s strength from BoJ tightening expectations will also continue to exert downward pressure on the pair.
by Shavyfxhub
How To Setup & Use The Trend Trading IndicatorThis video gives an in depth explanation of each setting of the Trend Trading Indicator so you can understand how to set up the indicator properly and get your desired results. We cover the following: Master trend signals and settings How to configure your master trend signal timeframes correctly How to get rid of signals when the market is ranging Each type of extra signal: strong all timeframe trends, pullbacks during strong trends, trend score signals and more What timeframes and settings to use for intraday trading Customizing the settings to get the results that fit your trading style Make sure to test out your settings on various markets using historical data to ensure you have the indicator performing according to your specific parameters. If you have any questions about using the indicator or the settings, feel free to reach out to us. Happy Trading :)
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!Education
by FriendOfTheTrend
2
MASTER PATTERN TEACHING using TradingView charts. Master pattern - Tonight we are looking at the SPX 500 index directional trade. Using Options. This is a master pattern technical analysis set up for entry, discipline and execution of a trade. I will use the 3 time frames to identify 1) Higher time frame ( HTF) Direction trade, trend & liquidity, volume confirmation, and the contraction box 2) Lower time frame ( LTF) Market makers and smart money set up contraction and expansion phases 3) Lower time frame ( LTF) Continuation leg of the trend Once I have identified and selected my option DTE and spread I will execute when the LTF has reached a new low in the intraday. Hope you learned something new. Happy Trading. Tommaso
SP:SPXLong
by chicagotrader10
1
Trend Confirmation Rules 4-Hour Timeframe for XAUUSD🟢Buy Trend Rules ✅ Trend Confirmation ✅ Buy Trend 1 and Buy Trend 2 signals must both appear on the chart. Both signals must match — they must both indicate a buy trend. If the signals do not match, the setup is considered invalid — 🚫 NO TRADE. 🔻 Sell Trend Rules ✅ Trend Confirmation ✅ Sell Trend 1 and Sell Trend 2 signals must both appear on the chart. Both signals must match — they must both indicate a sell trend. If the signals do not match, the setup is considered invalid — 🚫 NO TRADE. TP 500 pips SL 100 pips
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Simple_Xtrade
ES: Testing Yearly Open at 5950Current Market Structure Market completed successful retest of 2024 value area low (~20% correction from ATH) We are currently engaged in value discovery journey back toward developing POC near ATH Yearly open at ~5950 serves as current battleground level. Friday's Action Analysis Multiple rotations between yearly open (5950) and value area low (5925-5930) Staying within and expanding above yesterdays upper distribution Bulls eventually won the day, pushing +20 points to 5975 Key concern: Post-close liquidation break erased gains, returning to 5950 Suggests weak hands accumulated during the drift higher Technical Structure Issues White House announcement-driven moves created weak structure below current levels Multiple unfilled gaps and single prints underneath Weekly & Monthly VPOCs (virgin points of control) present structural vulnerabilities Path of least resistance technically up, but lacking conviction While the path of least resistance is upward, we really don't have a lot of people looking to start new positions here. Unless other timeframe traders come in and start finding value, we're just going to chop around. The market wants to get back to that POC near the highs, but it's getting artificial help every time we hit a pivotal point which is creating weak structure underneath us.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by rothenbergt
Netflix - The bulls just never stop!Netflix - NASDAQ:NFLX - is insanely bullish now: (click chart above to see the in depth analysis👆🏻) The entire stock market basically collapsed during April. Meanwhile, Netflix is creating new all time highs with a +20% parabolic bullish candle. Looking at the chart, this strength is very likely to continue even more until Netflix will (again) retest the upper resistance trendline. Levels to watch: $1.400 Keep your long term vision! Philip (BasicTrading)
NASDAQ:NFLXLong
by basictradingtv
17
How to Set Custom Alerts for Futures Trading in TradingViewThis tutorial video demonstrates how to access and add custom alerts for futures and other types of trading as well as manage those alerts. Learn more about trading futures with Optimus Futures using the TradingView platform here: optimusfutures.com Disclaimer: There is a substantial risk of loss in futures trading. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Please trade only with risk capital. We are not responsible for any third-party links, comments, or content shared on TradingView. Any opinions, links, or messages posted by users on TradingView do not represent our views or recommendations. Please exercise your own judgment and due diligence when engaging with any external content or user commentary.
CME_MINI:NQ1!Education
by OptimusFutures
GOLD Gold prices are dropping in mid-May 2025 primarily due to easing geopolitical and trade tensions, which has reduced safe-haven demand and triggered a shift in investor sentiment: Easing U.S.-China Trade Tensions: The United States and China have agreed to significantly lower tariffs and implemented a 90-day pause to finalize a broader trade agreement. This breakthrough has boosted global risk appetite, leading investors to move out of safe-haven assets like gold and into riskier assets such as equities. Major stock indexes have rallied on this optimism, further weakening gold’s appeal. Reduced Geopolitical Risks: Optimism about a potential resolution to the Russia-Ukraine conflict has also contributed to the decline. Announcements of high-level diplomatic meetings between Russia and Ukraine have encouraged hopes for peace, further reducing the need for gold as a geopolitical hedge. Technical Correction: Gold had recently surged to an all-time high of $3,500 per ounce, entering overbought territory. The current drop reflects a technical correction, with profit-taking and liquidation by futures traders accelerating the decline as key support levels were broken. Stronger U.S. Dollar and Yields: A stronger U.S. dollar-buoyed by improved economic data and the completion of a technical bullish pattern in the USD Index-has also pressured gold lower. Rising U.S. Treasury yields, following a better-than-expected U.S. jobs report, increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold, further weighing on prices. In summary: Gold prices are falling because improved trade and geopolitical conditions have reduced safe-haven demand, while technical selling and a stronger dollar amplify the decline. The market is experiencing a correction after recent record highs, but long-term structural drivers for gold remain intact.
FXOPEN:XAUUSDLong
by Shavyfxhub
4
Charts tell a story- EOSE Bullish Uptrend I believe this is so cool. When you see the pattern developing and the money flow and traders agreements in the chart. In this video I identified the set up and calculated trade entry and exit using technical analysis. I look at volume ( energy ) and candle wicks ( the story) . Then the trend. Earnings and news. Before entering a trade map out and have a trading plan, I love tradingview for the tools and opportunity we have to share.
NASDAQ:EOSELong
by chicagotrader10
6
DOLLARDollar (DXY) Outlook: Bearish Near-Term, Consolidation with Mild Depreciation Current Trends: The U.S. dollar has weakened 8.4% year-to-date, pressured by: Economic Contraction: Q1 2025 GDP shrank by 0.3%, driven by pre-tariff import surges and softening domestic demand. Fed Policy Uncertainty: Mixed signals on inflation control and delayed rate cuts erode confidence. Trade Tensions: Escalating U.S. tariffs disrupt global markets, favoring alternatives like the euro as a safe haven. Technical Momentum: Bearish chart patterns suggest further downside, with key support levels at risk. Reserve Currency Status: Despite concerns, the USD retains 57.8% of global reserves, providing a floor against rapid declines. Treasury Yields and Recession Signals Yield Levels 10-year: 4.439% 2-year: 3.976% 30-year: 4.900% Inverted Yield Curve: The 10-2 spread remains negative, a historically reliable recession indicator. Past inversions preceded downturns by 18–92 weeks, signaling heightened recession risks. Implications for USD: Inverted curves typically weaken the dollar as markets price in future Fed rate cuts. Rising long-term yields (e.g., 10-year at 4.439%) paradoxically coincide with dollar weakness, reflecting investor skepticism about U.S. economic resilience. Key Drivers and Cross-Currency Impacts Factor Impact on USD Impact on Yields Fed Policy Uncertainty ↓ (Delayed cuts weigh) ↑ (Volatility in rate expectations) Trade Tariffs ↓ (Safe-haven flows to EUR) ↑ (Risk premium in long-term yields) Inverted Yield Curve ↓ (Recession fears) – (Historically precedes recessions) Eurozone Growth (0.4% Q1) ↓ (EUR strength pressures USD) – Conclusion The U.S. dollar faces a bearish near-term bias, driven by economic softness, tariff headwinds, and technical breakdowns. Treasury yields, particularly the inverted curve, reinforce recession risks and further USD downside. However, the dollar’s reserve status and higher relative rates (vs. peers like the euro and yen) may limit severe declines, favoring consolidation with mild depreciation. Watch for: Fed communication on rate cuts and inflation. Eurozone PMI data (May 22) to gauge EUR resilience. 10-2 yield spread dynamics for recession timing clues. In summary, the dollar’s trajectory hinges on balancing recession risks against its yield advantage, with bears currently in control.
CAPITALCOM:DXY
by Shavyfxhub