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GBPUSD needs a catalyst. Could UK inflation be that?For now, FX_IDC:GBPUSD is struggling to overcome a key resistance barrier, at around 1.3440. Could the UK inflation numbers help move the pair? Let's dig in... MARKETSCOM:GBPUSD Let us know what you think in the comments below. Thank you. 77.3% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The value of investments may fall as well as rise and the investor may not get back the amount initially invested. This content is not intended for nor applicable to residents of the UK. Cryptocurrency CFDs and spread bets are restricted in the UK for all retail clients.
by Marketscom
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 5-20 : Harami-InsideToday's pattern suggests the SPY/QQQ will stay somewhat FLAT in trading. In this video, I go over the SPY/QQQ, Gold/Silver, and BTCUSD. What I find interesting in today's video is the setup in BTCUSD - being very similar to the peak in late 2021 before the double-top in Bitcoin. If my analysis is correct, we are moving into a type of final speculative phase (bullish) that will quickly transition into a type of breakdown move in the US/Global markets. Gold should do very well once this move sets up and begins to drive the Risk/Hedge trade. In the meantime, sit back and wait for this speculative move to phase out (top). Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by BradMatheny
2
USDJPYUSD/JPY Interest Rate Differential and Bond Yield Overview (May 2025) Interest Rate Differential Federal Reserve (Fed): Policy rate steady at 4.25%–4.50% as of May 2025, with expectations of holding rates steady for the near term. Fed’s cautious stance supports a relatively high yield environment in the U.S. Bank of Japan (BoJ): Policy rate raised to 0.50% in January 2025, the highest level in 17 years, marking a departure from ultra-loose monetary policy. Further rate hikes are anticipated every six months, possibly reaching closer to a neutral rate (~2%) by 2027, but BoJ remains dovish compared to the Fed. Differential: The interest rate gap between the U.S. and Japan has narrowed significantly in 2025 due to BoJ hikes and Fed rate hold. Current differential is roughly 3.75–4.00% in favor of the U.S., down from wider gaps in previous years. Bond Yield Dynamics U.S. Treasury Yields: 10-year Treasury yields hover around 4.3%–4.5%, reflecting inflation concerns and fiscal risks. Yields have been volatile but remain elevated, supporting the dollar’s yield advantage. Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs): 10-year JGB yields increased to about 0.5%, reflecting BoJ’s policy shift but still extremely low compared to U.S. yields. BoJ’s gradual reduction in bond purchases and policy normalization supports a stronger yen over time. Impact on USD/JPY Exchange Rate The narrowing interest rate differential reduces the carry trade advantage for USD/JPY, contributing to recent yen strength and USD/JPY declines from 2024 highs near ¥157 to around ¥145–146 in May 2025. Market forecasts vary: some expect USD/JPY to appreciate modestly toward ¥150+ in mid-2025 due to Fed steadiness and geopolitical risk, while others predict further yen gains as BoJ continues tightening and the Fed eventually cuts rates. Safe-haven flows and geopolitical tensions also influence USD/JPY, with the yen sometimes strengthening despite lower yield differentials. Summary Table Factor Impact on USD/JPY Fed policy steady (4.25–4.50%) Supports USD, upward pressure BoJ rate hikes (to 0.5% and rising) Strengthens JPY, downward pressure Narrowing interest rate differential Reduces USD carry trade advantage, yen support U.S. 10-year yields (~4.3–4.5%) Supports USD JGB yields (~0.5%) Supports JPY Geopolitical risk Safe-haven flows can strengthen JPY Conclusion The USD/JPY pair in May 2025 is shaped by a narrowing but still significant interest rate differential, with the Fed maintaining higher rates and the BoJ gradually tightening from ultra-loose policy. This narrowing gap has supported recent yen strength and USD/JPY declines from 2024 highs. However, elevated U.S. Treasury yields and geopolitical risks provide intermittent support to the dollar. The pair is likely to remain volatile, with direction hinging on future Fed-BoJ policy moves and global risk sentiment.
Long
by Shavyfxhub
1
Usd/Jpy intra-day Analysis 20-May-2025Disclaimer: easyMarkets Account on TradingView allows you to combine easyMarkets industry leading conditions, regulated trading and tight fixed spreads with TradingView's powerful social network for traders, advanced charting and analytics. Access no slippage on limit orders, tight fixed spreads, negative balance protection, no hidden fees or commission, and seamless integration. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. easyMarkets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
by easyMarkets
13
DOLLARThe relationship between the U.S. dollar and U.S. Treasury bond yields in May 2025 reflects a complex and evolving dynamic influenced by fiscal concerns, trade policies, and investor sentiment: Recent Trends: U.S. Treasury yields have risen, with the 30-year yield briefly touching 5%, and the 10-year yield climbing above 4.5%, driven by concerns over rising U.S. debt and fiscal deficits following Moody’s downgrade of the U.S. sovereign credit rating. Despite this rise in yields, the U.S. Dollar Index has weakened, dropping about 4% year-over-year, reflecting reduced confidence in the dollar as the world’s reserve currency. Typical Relationship: Normally, higher Treasury yields attract foreign capital seeking better returns, which supports a stronger dollar. The dollar and bond yields often move in tandem, showing a positive correlation (around 0.5 over recent months). This was evident recently as the dollar strengthened alongside rising yields following a preliminary U.S.-China trade truce. Current Anomalies: However, in early 2025, this relationship weakened significantly. The dollar declined even as Treasury yields rose, signaling a loss of confidence in U.S. assets amid escalating trade tensions and concerns about the sustainability of U.S. fiscal policy. This decoupling suggests investors are reconsidering the dollar’s role and are diversifying away from U.S. assets. Market Sentiment and Risks: The downgrade and rising deficits have increased fears about U.S. fiscal health, prompting some investors to sell U.S. assets, which pressures the dollar despite higher yields. Meanwhile, tariff policies and geopolitical risks contribute to volatility in both yields and the dollar. Outlook: The dollar and Treasury yields have recently realigned, moving more in sync again as trade optimism returned and the Fed maintained a steady policy stance. However, ongoing fiscal challenges and geopolitical uncertainties mean this relationship remains fragile. Summary Aspect Current Observation (May 2025) Treasury Yields Rising (10-year ~4.5%, 30-year ~5%) U.S. Dollar Index Weakened (~4% decline YTD) Typical Correlation Positive (~0.5 correlation between dollar and yields) Recent Anomaly Dollar fell while yields rose (early 2025) Drivers of Anomaly Fiscal concerns, Moody’s downgrade, trade tensions Market Sentiment Reduced confidence in U.S. assets and dollar Outlook Re-alignment underway but fragile due to fiscal risks In essence: While U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar usually move together—higher yields supporting a stronger dollar—recent fiscal concerns and geopolitical tensions have caused periods of divergence. Rising yields amid a weakening dollar reflect investor worries about U.S. debt sustainability and a potential shift away from the dollar’s reserve currency status. However, improving trade relations and Fed communication have recently brought the two back into closer alignment, though the relationship remains sensitive to evolving economic and political development Disclaimer The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. #dollar #dxy #gold
TVC:DXYLong
by Shavyfxhub
1
We are watching USDCAD today and on ThursdayCanadian CPIs and PPIs are coming out on Tuesday and Thursday respectively. Let's dig into the numbers. FX_IDC:USDCAD MARKETSCOM:USDCAD Let us know what you think in the comments below. Thank you. 77.3% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The value of investments may fall as well as rise and the investor may not get back the amount initially invested. This content is not intended for nor applicable to residents of the UK. Cryptocurrency CFDs and spread bets are restricted in the UK for all retail clients.
by Marketscom
EURJPYEUR/JPY Interest Rate Differential and Yield Curve Analysis (May–June 2025) Interest Rate Differential European Central Bank (ECB): Deposit rate: 2.25% (cut by 25 bps in April 2025). Outlook: Markets expect two more cuts in 2025, potentially lowering rates to 1.75% by year-end due to subdued inflation (2.3% YoY) and tariff risks. Bank of Japan (BoJ): Policy rate: 0.50% (unchanged in May 2025, highest since 2008). Outlook: Dovish stance persists despite trimming 2025 GDP growth to 0.5%; further hikes unlikely until 2026 amid U.S. tariff pressures. Differential: ~1.75% in favor of EUR, though ECB easing may narrow this gap. Yield Curve Dynamics Eurozone 10-Year Bond Yield: 3.14% (May 15, 2025), above the long-term average of 2.47% but down from recent peaks. Japan 10-Year Bond Yield: 1.52% (May 20, 2025), reflecting BoJ’s ultra-loose policy and weak growth. Yield Spread: 1.62% (Eurozone vs. Japan), down from earlier highs as ECB cuts loom. Key Drivers ECB Policy and Growth: Eurozone Q1 GDP grew 0.3% QoQ, outperforming expectations, but U.S. tariffs (20% on EU exports starting July) threaten future growth. ECB’s dovish pivot contrasts with BoJ’s passive stance, narrowing the rate differential. BoJ’s Quantitative Tightening: Reduced bond purchases (cut to ¥425 billion in May) signal tentative policy tightening, temporarily supporting JPY. Japan’s Q1 GDP contracted -0.7% annualized, driven by weak exports and stagnant consumption. Bond Yield Shrinkage: The 2-year yield spread between German Bunds and Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs) has narrowed, reducing EUR’s appeal. Technical analysis suggests a potential bearish reversal for EUR/JPY, with a break below 155.45 triggering a multi-month downtrend. Directional Bias Near-Term: Neutral-to-Bearish ECB rate cuts and yield spread shrinkage offset EUR’s yield advantage. JPY gains limited by BoJ’s delayed hikes and weak growth, but reduced QE provides temporary support. Medium-Term: Bearish Risks Escalating U.S.-EU/Japan trade tensions may amplify safe-haven JPY demand. Summary Table Factor EUR Impact JPY Impact EUR/JPY Bias ECB Rate Cuts Weakens EUR – Bearish BoJ Dovish Hold – Weakens JPY Bullish Eurozone Growth (0.3%) Mild support – Neutral Japan’s GDP Contraction – Pressures JPY Bullish Yield Spread Shrinkage Reduces EUR appeal Boosts JPY attractiveness Bearish Conclusion: EUR/JPY faces increasing bearish pressure from narrowing rate differentials, yield curve dynamics, and technical breakdown risks. While the ECB’s higher rates and Eurozone growth resilience provide near-term support, medium-term headwinds from ECB easing and JPY strength dominate the outlook. Traders should monitor ECB communications (June 19) and BoJ policy signals for shifts in momentum. #ECB#EURJPY #FOREX
Long
by Shavyfxhub
GOLD The relationship between gold prices and the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) in May 2025 reflects typical market dynamics influenced by economic data, Federal Reserve policy expectations, and geopolitical factors: The U.S. Dollar Index has shown some recent weakness, trading around 100.36 on May 20, 2025, down about 0.06% from the previous session and roughly 4% lower year-over-year. This decline partly stems from disappointing U.S. economic data and increased market expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts later in 2025. A weaker dollar generally supports higher gold prices because gold is priced in dollars; when the dollar falls, gold becomes cheaper for holders of other currencies, boosting demand. Conversely, a stronger dollar tends to pressure gold prices downward. However, recent market behavior shows a nuanced picture: the dollar’s recent modest gains against the yen and euro have coincided with fluctuating gold prices, influenced by safe-haven demand amid geopolitical tensions and inflation expectations. The dollar’s performance is influenced by factors such as U.S. Treasury yields, inflation expectations, and trade policy developments. For example, falling Treasury yields and dovish Fed signals have softened the dollar, which can be supportive of gold. Overall, the inverse correlation between gold and the dollar remains strong, but gold’s price movements also depend on inflation trends, real interest rates, and geopolitical risk premiums, which can sometimes decouple gold from dollar moves in the short term. Summary: Dollar Index (DXY): Around 100.36 on May 20, 2025, slightly down recently but expected to rise moderately by year-end. Gold Price Impact: A weaker dollar supports gold by making it cheaper internationally; a stronger dollar tends to weigh on gold. Market Drivers: Fed rate cut expectations, Treasury yields, inflation data, and geopolitical tensions influence both gold and the dollar. This dynamic means monitoring U.S. economic data and Fed policy announcements is crucial for anticipating near-term moves in both gold and the dollar index.
FUSIONMARKETS:XAUUSDLong
by Shavyfxhub
1
DOLLARThe relationship between the U.S. dollar and U.S. Treasury bond yields in May 2025 reflects a complex and evolving dynamic influenced by fiscal concerns, trade policies, and investor sentiment: Recent Trends: U.S. Treasury yields have risen, with the 30-year yield briefly touching 5%, and the 10-year yield climbing above 4.5%, driven by concerns over rising U.S. debt and fiscal deficits following Moody’s downgrade of the U.S. sovereign credit rating. Despite this rise in yields, the U.S. Dollar Index has weakened, dropping about 4% year-over-year, reflecting reduced confidence in the dollar as the world’s reserve currency. Typical Relationship: Normally, higher Treasury yields attract foreign capital seeking better returns, which supports a stronger dollar. The dollar and bond yields often move in tandem, showing a positive correlation (around 0.5 over recent months). This was evident recently as the dollar strengthened alongside rising yields following a preliminary U.S.-China trade truce. Current Anomalies: However, in early 2025, this relationship weakened significantly. The dollar declined even as Treasury yields rose, signaling a loss of confidence in U.S. assets amid escalating trade tensions and concerns about the sustainability of U.S. fiscal policy. This decoupling suggests investors are reconsidering the dollar’s role and are diversifying away from U.S. assets. Market Sentiment and Risks: The downgrade and rising deficits have increased fears about U.S. fiscal health, prompting some investors to sell U.S. assets, which pressures the dollar despite higher yields. Meanwhile, tariff policies and geopolitical risks contribute to volatility in both yields and the dollar. Outlook: The dollar and Treasury yields have recently realigned, moving more in sync again as trade optimism returned and the Fed maintained a steady policy stance. However, ongoing fiscal challenges and geopolitical uncertainties mean this relationship remains fragile. Summary Aspect Current Observation (May 2025) Treasury Yields Rising (10-year ~4.5%, 30-year ~5%) U.S. Dollar Index Weakened (~4% decline YTD) Typical Correlation Positive (~0.5 correlation between dollar and yields) Recent Anomaly Dollar fell while yields rose (early 2025) Drivers of Anomaly Fiscal concerns, Moody’s downgrade, trade tensions Market Sentiment Reduced confidence in U.S. assets and dollar Outlook Re-alignment underway but fragile due to fiscal risks In essence: While U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar usually move together—higher yields supporting a stronger dollar—recent fiscal concerns and geopolitical tensions have caused periods of divergence. Rising yields amid a weakening dollar reflect investor worries about U.S. debt sustainability and a potential shift away from the dollar’s reserve currency status. However, improving trade relations and Fed communication have recently brought the two back into closer alignment, though the relationship remains sensitive to evolving economic and political developments.
TVC:DXY
by Shavyfxhub
GOLD The relationship between gold prices and the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) in May 2025 reflects typical market dynamics influenced by economic data, Federal Reserve policy expectations, and geopolitical factors: The U.S. Dollar Index has shown some recent weakness, trading around 100.36 on May 20, 2025, down about 0.06% from the previous session and roughly 4% lower year-over-year. This decline partly stems from disappointing U.S. economic data and increased market expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts later in 2025. A weaker dollar generally supports higher gold prices because gold is priced in dollars; when the dollar falls, gold becomes cheaper for holders of other currencies, boosting demand. Conversely, a stronger dollar tends to pressure gold prices downward. However, recent market behavior shows a nuanced picture: the dollar’s recent modest gains against the yen and euro have coincided with fluctuating gold prices, influenced by safe-haven demand amid geopolitical tensions and inflation expectations. The dollar’s performance is influenced by factors such as U.S. Treasury yields, inflation expectations, and trade policy developments. For example, falling Treasury yields and dovish Fed signals have softened the dollar, which can be supportive of gold. Overall, the inverse correlation between gold and the dollar remains strong, but gold’s price movements also depend on inflation trends, real interest rates, and geopolitical risk premiums, which can sometimes decouple gold from dollar moves in the short term. Summary: Dollar Index (DXY): Around 100.36 on May 20, 2025, slightly down recently but expected to rise moderately by year-end. Gold Price Impact: A weaker dollar supports gold by making it cheaper internationally; a stronger dollar tends to weigh on gold. Market Drivers: Fed rate cut expectations, Treasury yields, inflation data, and geopolitical tensions influence both gold and the dollar. This dynamic means monitoring U.S. economic data and Fed policy announcements is crucial for anticipating near-term moves in both gold and the dollar index.
FUSIONMARKETS:XAUUSDLong
by Shavyfxhub
PLAN YOUR TRADES - WHY and HOW I plan to sell EURAUD!!All the information you need to find a high probability trade are in front of you on the charts so build your trading decisions on 'the facts' of the chart NOT what you think or what you want to happen or even what you heard will happen. If you have enough facts telling you to trade in a certain direction and therefore enough confluence to take a trade, then this is how you will gain consistency in you trading and build confidence. Check out my trade idea!! www.tradingview.com
Short
by Simply-Forex
Binance Blinked! High level of USDC volume across Binance..Binance has for many years tried their own versions of buying US debt with USD made from selling a stablecoin of their own. This has been squashed nearly every time and has most likely hindered the flow on binance itself. It seems binance may have blinked. USDC has been flooding into Binance this year maintaining often very high levels of relative volume. This flow is overall better than if neither party capitulated. Must be careful of different streams of volume fragmenting both bullish and bearish data. While USDT is seeing all time highs its market share is falling with the wider adoption of stablecoins on chain and in traditional finance. All this is occuring as stablecoin regulation is being passed in the US www.tradingview.com and Dimon says NYSE:JPM will be buying COINBASE:BTCUSD for clients soon
Long
by SoftQuant