You Will Learn 3 Things:The Dollar, Gold And CryptoEven though i did not mention it in this video
i would like to thank my mentors
Robert Kiyosaki, Tim Sykes, And Matthew Kratter.
And you can get their books on Amazon kindle
If you need more resources for learning
about technical analysis.
Now this video i will show you:
1. The rocket booster strategy
2. The rise of gold price
3. The fall of the us dollar
These things are very match connected
and they show you how they work together to
give you a powerful strategy to use when
you are trading.But fair warning this pattern
doesn't always happen
and its exclusive
to Gold TVC:GOLD and the dollar price
In this case we are looking at a crypto coin that
can you help you catch the Bitcoin bull market.
Rocket boost this video to learn more.
Disclaimer:Do not use margin.Trading is risky
please learn risk management and profit taking strategies before you
trade with real money please use a simulation trading account first.
Community ideas
Use a Top Down Approach to gather as much CONFLUENCE as possibleAll the information you need to find a high probability trade are in front of you on the charts so build your trading decisions on 'the facts' of the chart NOT what you think or what you want to happen or even what you heard will happen. If you have enough facts telling you to trade in a certain direction and therefore enough confluence to take a trade, then this is how you will gain consistency in you trading and build confidence. Check out my trade idea!!
www.tradingview.com
AUDJPYAUD/JPY Bond Yield Differential and Carry Trade Analysis ,the current interest rate differential
Bond price will be watched as carry are looking for directional bias on a cautious note .
Australia 10-year bond yield: drops from 4.5 % to 4.391 a drop today
Japan 10-year bond yield: 1.53%
Interest rate differential: 3.00% (AUD yield − JPY yield)
Carry Trade Mechanics
The AUD/JPY carry trade involves borrowing low-yielding Japanese yen (JPY) to invest in higher-yielding Australian dollar (AUD) assets, profiting from the 3% yield spread. For example:
Borrow ¥15 million at 0.1% (JPY rate) and convert to AUD.
Invest in Australian bonds or deposits yielding 4.53%.
Annual profit: ~3% (minus transaction costs and currency fluctuations).
Key Drivers and Risks
Opportunities
Yield Advantage: The 3% differential offers steady returns in low-volatility conditions.
AUD Resilience: Improved global trade sentiment (e.g., US-China tariff reductions ) supports AUD demand.
BoJ Policy: Japan’s gradual monetary tightening (10-year JGB yield at 1.53%, up from 0.99% in 2024 ) has not yet erased the yield gap.
Risks
RBA Rate Cuts: The Reserve Bank of Australia recently cut rates to 3.85% , which could pressure AUD yields downward.
JPY Appreciation: BoJ’s hawkish tilt and safe-haven demand during market stress could strengthen JPY, eroding carry profits.
Currency Volatility: AUD/JPY has faced downward pressure, trading near 93.00 in May 2025 . A 5% JPY rally could wipe out the annual interest gain.
Strategic Considerations for Traders
Factor Impact on Carry Trade
Yield Spread 3% provides baseline return
AUD/JPY Stability Critical to preserving capital
Central Bank Policies Monitor RBA/BoJ for rate changes
Global Trade Dynamics US-China tensions affect AUD
Historical Performance and Outlook
In 2024, similar yield spreads generated 4–5% annual returns for AUD/JPY carry trades .
Forecasts suggest the spread may narrow slightly if the RBA continues easing, but remains attractive compared to other pairs like USD/JPY (4.25% vs. 0.1% ).
Conclusion
The AUD/JPY carry trade remains viable in May 2025, leveraging a 3% yield differential. However, traders must hedge against JPY strength and monitor RBA/BoJ policy shifts. While the strategy offers steady returns in stable markets, currency volatility and central bank actions pose significant risks.
#forex #audjpy
BITCOINBitcoin’s correlation with the US Dollar Index (DXY), bond yields, and bond prices reflects complex and evolving market dynamics as of 2025:
Bitcoin and DXY Correlation
Bitcoin generally shows a strong inverse correlation with the DXY, with correlation coefficients ranging from about -0.3 to -0.8 over recent years. This means that when the dollar strengthens, Bitcoin tends to weaken, and vice versa.
For example, in early 2025, the DXY dropped below 100 for the first time in two years, coinciding with Bitcoin surging over 15%, reflecting increased institutional interest as investors sought alternatives to a weakening dollar.
Historical data shows that significant drops in the DXY (2% or more) have often preceded strong Bitcoin rallies, sometimes pushing prices toward new all-time highs.
However, short-term deviations can occur, such as periods when Bitcoin and the dollar both rise or fall due to unique events or speculative factors.
Bitcoin and Bond Yields Correlation
Bitcoin’s relationship with US Treasury bond yields (especially the 10-year yield) is more nuanced. Rising yields often indicate tighter monetary policy and higher opportunity costs for holding risk assets like Bitcoin, which can pressure its price.
Yet, during inflationary periods or geopolitical uncertainty, Bitcoin has sometimes risen alongside bond yields as investors seek inflation hedges and portfolio diversification.
The correlation is less stable than with the DXY, influenced by broader macroeconomic conditions and investor sentiment.
Bitcoin and Bond Prices Correlation
Since bond prices move inversely to yields, Bitcoin’s correlation with bond prices is also mixed. Falling bond prices (rising yields) can coincide with Bitcoin weakness due to tighter monetary conditions.
However, in times of economic stress or monetary instability, Bitcoin may decouple from bonds, acting as a digital safe haven even when bond prices fall.
Summary Table
Asset Pair Typical Correlation with Bitcoin Notes
Bitcoin vs. DXY Negative (-0.3 to -0.8) Strong inverse relationship; dollar strength pressures Bitcoin
Bitcoin vs. Bond Yields Mixed/Negative Rising yields often bearish, but can coincide with Bitcoin rallies during inflation fears
Bitcoin vs. Bond Prices Mixed Inverse of yields; correlation depends on macro context
Economic and Market Implications
A weakening dollar and rising inflation often drive investors toward Bitcoin as a hedge, fueling price rallies.
Monetary policy tightening and rising bond yields increase the opportunity cost of holding Bitcoin, potentially dampening demand.
During geopolitical tensions or systemic risks, Bitcoin may act as a digital safe haven, sometimes moving independently of traditional assets.
Growing institutional adoption strengthens Bitcoin’s role as a reserve asset, influencing its correlation dynamics with DXY and bonds.
Conclusion
Bitcoin’s price movements are closely tied to the US dollar’s strength and bond market dynamics but with nuanced behavior depending on macroeconomic conditions. The inverse correlation with the DXY remains the most consistent relationship, while correlations with bond yields and prices vary with inflation expectations, monetary policy, and investor sentiment. This complexity positions Bitcoin as a unique and increasingly important asset in the global financial ecosystem.
#BITCOIN #DOLLAR #DXY #FX
SILVERSilver Price, Bond Yield, and DXY Correlation in the Economy
Key Correlations
Silver and DXY (US Dollar Index): Inverse Relationship
Silver is priced in USD, so a stronger dollar (DXY↑) makes silver more expensive for foreign buyers, reducing demand and pressuring prices lower. Conversely, a weaker dollar (DXY↓) boosts silver’s affordability, increasing demand and prices.
Example: In early 2025, silver surged toward $32.60 as the DXY dropped to 99.50, highlighting this dynamic.
Silver and Bond Yields: Typically Inverse, But Context-Dependent
Higher bond yields (e.g., US 10-year Treasury) raise the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding silver, often pressuring prices downward.
Exception: During stagflation (high inflation + low growth) or geopolitical crises, silver and yields may rise together as investors seek inflation hedges.
Bond Yields and DXY: Positive Correlation
Rising US bond yields attract foreign capital, strengthening the dollar (DXY↑). This synergy often pressures silver prices via both channels.
Economic Applications
1. Monetary Policy and Inflation Dynamics
Fed Rate Hikes: Increase bond yields and often strengthen the dollar, creating dual headwinds for silver. However, if hikes fail to curb inflation, silver may rally as a hedge.
Quantitative Easing (QE): Expands money supply, weakening the dollar and supporting silver. For example, post-2008 QE drove silver to $50/oz by 2011.
2. Stagflation Scenarios
When inflation outpaces growth (e.g., 2024–2025), silver often outperforms despite rising yields. Investors prioritize its role as an inflation hedge over yield-driven opportunity costs.
3. Industrial Demand and Currency Volatility
Silver’s industrial use (e.g., solar panels, electronics) ties its price to economic growth. A weak dollar (DXY↓) can amplify demand from tech and green energy sectors, offsetting yield-driven declines.
4. Safe-Haven Flows
During geopolitical tensions (e.g., U.S.-China trade wars), silver and the dollar may both strengthen temporarily, disrupting their usual inverse correlation.
Strategic Implications
Factor Silver Price Impact Economic Signal
DXY ↑ + Yields ↑ Bearish Strong dollar, tight monetary policy
DXY ↓ + Yields ↓ Bullish Weak dollar, accommodative policy
DXY ↓ + Yields ↑ Mixed Stagflation or growth-inflation mix
Yield Peaks: Negatively divergent 10-year yields (~4.54% in May 2025) suggest impending declines, potentially boosting silver.
Debt-Driven Inflation: With U.S. debt-to-GDP exceeding 200%, monetary debasement fears support long-term silver demand despite short-term yield pressures.
Conclusion
The interplay between silver, bond yields, and the DXY provides critical insights into economic health and investor sentiment. While their correlations are often inverse, stagflation or systemic risks can override these trends, positioning silver as both a cyclical and structural hedge. Policymakers and traders monitor these relationships to navigate inflation, growth, and currency volatility.
#SILVER #DOLLAR #GOLD #FX #FOREX
Bitcoin - Here we have the all time high!Bitcoin - CRYPTO:BTCUSD - is just getting started:
(click chart above to see the in depth analysis👆🏻)
It was really just a matter of time until we see a new all time high on Bitcoin. Consindering that over the past two months alone, Bitcoin rose another +50%, this was a clear indication that bulls are taking over. But this all time high is clearly not the end of the bullrun.
Levels to watch: $300.000
Keep your long term vision!
Philip (BasicTrading)
Tesla - Don't get confused right here!Tesla - NASDAQ:TSLA - is about to create the bullish reversal:
(click chart above to see the in depth analysis👆🏻)
2025 has been a rough year for Tesla so far. With a drop of about -50%, Tesla is clearly breaking the average retail trader. But the underlying trend is still quite bullish and if position strategy, risk execution and mindset control are all mastered, Tesla is a quite rewarding stock.
Levels to watch: $275, $400
Keep your long term vision!
Philip (BasicTrading)
Price agreement /MAGNETIC ZONE TO WORK -( Trust the Process) This is where institutional accumulation or distribution happens.
In this chart, I have the blue line, that is the Price agreement.
Price moves sideways in a tight range, establishing areas of price agreement—these are your magnetic zones. ( blue line)
Think of this as the “trap” phase. Liquidity is building on both sides.
These zones are magnetic because:
Volume clusters there.
Most retail traders place orders around these levels.
Price tends to revisit these areas after a move—giving you potential entry on the retest.
🎯 Pro Tip: Mark the midpoint or volume node of the consolidation. It often becomes a key retest or reversion zone later.
Manipulation (Liquidity Grab) on 5/06/25 look at the 4HR chart.
Price breaks out of the range ( 5.28) , usually in the wrong direction 4.89(a false breakout).
This is a liquidity sweep—( 4.89) grabbing stop-losses and triggering emotional entries from uninformed traders.
After the sweep, look for a sharp reversal candle, 05/07/25 at earnings, often with volume spike or order block formation.
🧠 This is where you prepare—not enter yet. Let the market show intent.
Expansion (Real Move + Entry Confirmation)
Once the break of structure (BOS) happens in the opposite direction of the false breakout, that’s your signal.
Your ideal entry is often on:
The retest of the original range high/low (the edge of the magnetic zone),
A breaker block or fair value gap (FVG) just above or below the manipulation candle,
Or a 1HR or 15min order block if you want sniper entries.
🎯 Stop-loss: just outside the sweep level. Take profit: next liquidity pool or opposite side of the range.
🔑 Trusting the Process: Let the Zones Work
The magnetic zones are not just theory. They are psychological footprints of collective human behavior—where traders agree on value. Institutions return to these zones because that’s where the volume is.
Here’s how I trust the process:
Don’t chase the breakout—watch for manipulation.
Trust the reversion—the market often returns to the magnetic zone before the real move.
Wait for confirmation—don’t guess the direction, let the market tell you via BOS or rejection from the zone.
Stick to your system—when the setup aligns across multiple timeframes (1D, 4HR, 1HR), the probabilities are in your favor.
| Step | What to Look For | Tools |
| ---------------- | --------------------- | ------------------------ |
| 1. Consolidation | Range + magnetic zone | Volume Profile, Midpoint |
| 2. Manipulation | Stop hunt / sweep | Wick spikes, OBs |
| 3. Confirmation | BOS + Retest | FVG, Breaker Block, OB |
Note To Self (Redefining My Edge) This video is made for myself but I felt the need to share it because this morning after a two day winning streak I decided to chase the market not thinking compound which is detrimental in all ways so now I'm reflecting on the things I did wrong and how to improve them the market is set up for you to lose money that's why Its open 24/7 6 days a week understanding that human psychology is set to over indulge which is the reason I failed to follow my rules this morning causing me to lose a significant amount of my profits and account balance.
EOSE Master Pattern Valid. SWEEP made, 1 HR offers entry 🔥 Power Lunch Breakdown – EOSE Master Pattern Entry & Liquidity Zones
🎯 **Ticker**: EOSE
⏱️ **Timeframe Analysis: Daily ➡ 4HR ➡ 1HR
📍 **Focus**: Developing **Master Pattern Entry** & **Liquidity Zones**
📅 **1D (Daily) – Macro Outlook
Structure**: EOSE has been in a bullish phase, forming a range with clear swing highs and lows.
Liquidity Zones:
* Equal highs around =7.28 **buy-side liquidity**
* Equal lows around = 5.61 **sell-side liquidity**
* **Current Action**: Price is inching toward a prior high 6.34 – a likely **liquidity grab setup**.
* **Bias**: Neutral to bullish – waiting for a **stop hunt and reversal confirmation**.
> 🔑 *Watch for a daily wick above support 5.98 and a close back inside the range. That would signal the start of the Master Pattern directional leg.*
---
### ⏳ **4HR – Transitional Clarity**
* **Compression Pattern**: Price is coiling tighter between trendlines, suggesting **engineered breakout** is near.
* **Displacement Zones**:
* Look for a **liquidity sweep** (false breakout) and then a **market structure shift (MSS)** back in the opposite direction.
* **Smart Money Concepts (SMC)**:
* Signs of **internal BOS** (break of structure) already forming.
* **Order blocks** are visible just below liquidity – possible re-entry zones.
> 🔁 *4HR is where we may first see confirmation of institutional intent. Ideal entry is after the sweep + BOS + retest of a breaker or OB.*
---
### 🕐 **1HR – Execution Timing**
* **Entry Window**: Liquidity grab appears imminent or just occurred. Early signs of **momentum reversal**.
* **Volume Profile**:
* Spike in volume = aggressive orders during sweep.
* Look for **low-volume retest** into breaker block for entry.
* **Trade Setup**:
* Entry: On retest of 1HR OB or breaker. 5.57
* Stop Loss: Just outside the swept liquidity. 5.50
* TP: Return to mean, or extend to FVG targets / opposite liquidity pool.
> 🎯 *This is the sniper entry zone. Manage risk tightly. Your edge is in precision and narrative alignment across all timeframes.*
---
### 📈 Summary (Trade Thesis)
* **Daily** shows **liquidity draw**.
* **4HR** gives us the **break of structure** and institutional footprint.
* **1HR** offers **precise entry** after the manipulation leg completes.
> 🧠 **If price breaks structure without a sweep**, the master pattern is invalid. Wait for confirmation.
GBPJPYGBP/JPY 10-Year Bond Yield Differential and Carry Trade Outlook (May 21, 2025)
Current Bond Yields and Interest Rate Differential
UK 10-year gilt yield: 4.77%
Japan 10-year JGB yield: 1.53%
Interest rate differential: 3.24% (GBP yield - JPY yield)
Key Factors Influencing Carry Trade Dynamics
For GBP (UK):
The UK’s 10-year yield rose to 4.77%, its highest since April 2025, driven by hotter-than-expected inflation data (CPI at 3.5% YoY) and reduced expectations for Bank of England (BoE) rate cuts in 2025. Markets now price in only 34 basis points of cuts for the year .
The BoE’s cautious stance supports GBP strength, as higher yields attract foreign capital.
For JPY (Japan):
Japan’s 10-year JGB yield remains low at 1.53%, despite rising to a 17-year high earlier in 2025. The Bank of Japan (BoJ) continues gradual policy normalization but faces economic headwinds (Q1 GDP contraction of 0.2% QoQ) .
BoJ’s potential rate hikes and reduced bond purchases could strengthen the yen, adding risk to JPY-funded carry trades .
Carry Trade Reaction
Opportunity for GBP/JPY Carry Trade
The 3.24% yield spread makes GBP/JPY attractive for carry traders, who borrow low-yielding JPY to invest in higher-yielding GBP assets.
Historical precedent (e.g., 2021–2024) shows such spreads often lead to sustained GBP/JPY rallies, provided volatility remains low .
Risks and Challenges
JPY Strength Risks: BoJ’s tightening bias and safe-haven demand (amid U.S.-China trade tensions) could trigger sharp JPY appreciation, eroding carry profits .
GBP Volatility: UK inflation uncertainty and fiscal risks could destabilize gilt yields, increasing GBP volatility.
Intervention Risks: Japanese authorities have signaled willingness to curb excessive JPY weakness, raising the cost of carry trades .
Strategic Response for Carry Traders
Hedging: Use options (e.g., JPY call/put risk reversals) to protect against sudden yen strength while retaining exposure to the yield spread .
Selective Positioning: Focus on short-term trades to avoid prolonged exposure to BoJ policy shifts or UK economic data surprises.
Summary Table
Factor GBP Impact JPY Impact Carry Trade Implication
Yield Spread 4.77% 1.53% Attractive 3.24% differential
BoE Policy Cautious on cuts – Supports GBP strength
BoJ Policy – Gradual tightening Risk of JPY appreciation
Geopolitical Risks – Safe-haven JPY demand Limits GBP/JPY upside
Conclusion
Carry traders are likely to favor GBP/JPY due to the wide yield spread, but will mitigate risks through hedging and close monitoring of BoJ interventions, UK inflation trends, and geopolitical developments. The trade’s profitability hinges on stable or widening yield differentials and subdued JPY safe-haven demand.
#GBPJPY #FOREX
Review and plan for 23rd May 2025 Nifty future and banknifty future analysis and intraday plan.
Quarterly results
This video is for information/education purpose only. you are 100% responsible for any actions you take by reading/viewing this post.
please consult your financial advisor before taking any action.
----Vinaykumar hiremath, CMT
Trade Reflection & Overview – Final Thoughts on the Day’s SetupIn this final video, I’m reflecting on the trade and the key lessons learned throughout the session. Looking back, I realize I should have taken profits when price tested the 9:33 AM fair value gap, which would have given us a nice profit. Although I expected lower prices, considering we had a bearish daily bias, I underestimated the strength of the daily fair value gap, which had already been tapped multiple times. Price held above the 50% level, and that was a strong signal for higher prices.
Additionally, the double top formation near Monday’s buy-side liquidity could have been a target for price, which adds to the case for a reversal higher. Despite missing some potential profit, we ended the day with a total of $50,723.16 in profit.
Looking ahead, the focus is on consistent trades, avoiding FOMO, and maintaining solid setups that make sense. I’m committed to sticking with MNQ for now, refining my confidence in the setups and building a steady rhythm. Once we’re fully confident and have more capital, I’ll look to take on more risk, but for now, the goal is simple — keep it consistent and avoid repeating past mistakes.
This is the year of building profitability and consistency, and I’m ready for the journey ahead.
Trade Overview:
Profit: $200
Account Balance: $50,723.16 for the day
Reflections: Missed opportunity to take profits at key levels
Next Steps: Focus on solid setups, consistency, and avoiding FOMO
Trading Plan: Sticking with MNQ for now, working on building confidence and rhythm.
Position Management – Consolidation and Missed Exit OpportunityPosition Management – Consolidation, Inverse Head & Shoulders, and Missed Exit Opportunity
In this video, we continue managing the position, which remains in consolidation. Price taps the 50% level where we took our first partial, retraces higher, and taps the inverse fair value gap that previously held support for the sell-off. From there, we rush lower to the 9:33 AM fair value gap, finding instant support and bouncing just shy of the 50% mark of that gap.
This is also coinciding with the 25% level of the daily fair value gap. As price trades up to the 7.05 area, we create a triple top before moving lower again, but it’s been choppy and ugly. At around 11:00 AM, I reflect on how taking profits at the first test of the 9:33 AM fair value gap would've been the ideal move, putting us up around $380.
We’re now observing a potential inverse head and shoulders forming, with the 9:33 AM fair value gap as the head and the 50% area as the higher right shoulder, suggesting a reversal for higher prices.
Trade Overview:
Price Action: Choppy movement, with multiple taps of key levels
Key Levels: 9:33 AM fair value gap, 50% of fair value gap, 25% daily fair value gap
Pattern: Observing an inverse head and shoulders setup forming
Exit Reflection: Considering missed opportunity to take profits at 11:00 AM.
Position Management – Price Consolidation & FVG SupportIn this video, we continue managing the position after taking our first partial. Price consolidates around the 50% retracement level before pushing lower to the 21,188.75 level, which aligns with the 9:33 AM fair value gap we identified earlier. We find support here, and at this point, we’re still hoping to see a continuation lower.
However, the inverse fair value gap only holds for a few more points before the price reverses against us. This ultimately takes us out of the position, but we still lock in a profit of $65 from the trade.
Trade Overview:
Price Action: Consolidation near 50%, then lower to 21,188.75 (9:33 AM fair value gap)
Support: Price found support at the fair value gap level before reversing
Exit: Stopped out with $65 profit as the inverse fair value gap failed to hold.
Trade Management – First Partial at 50% of the TrendIn this video, we’re already inside the 10 AM trade from the previous setup. At this point, we’re up 290 ticks, and we’re managing the position carefully. To mitigate risk, we decided to take our first partial near the 50% retracement of the trend, just in case the price reversed and went against us.
This step allowed us to lock in some profit while still leaving room for the trade to continue in our favor.
Trade Overview:
Profit: +290 ticks
Partial: First partial taken at 50% retracement of the trend
Risk Management: Protecting against potential reversal while staying in the trade.
10 AM Trade – Entry After Buy-Side Liquidity ManipulationAfter the 10 AM candle formed, price quickly expanded higher, as we had anticipated, taking out the buy-side liquidity before tapping into a new week opening gap low. Once this manipulation played out, I observed the price action on smaller timeframes, particularly the 1-minute chart, where we saw a bullish break for value gaps. I used this as an inverse setup to enter on the third or fourth candle.
The trade eventually played out, moving lower as expected, setting the stage for further price action that I’ll explain in more detail in the upcoming videos.
Trade Overview:
Entry: After the 10 AM candle, based on a break of a bullish FVGs on the 1-minute
Bias: Anticipating buy-side liquidity manipulation and a move toward lower prices
Execution: Entered on the third or fourth candle, holding for a continuation lower.