Neutral zone trade environmentThe S&P 500 daily chart on Friday completes a neutral zone trade structure. This implies a sideways move on Monday to higher close.
Community ideas
Tesla - There's more after the +60% rally!Tesla - NASDAQ:TSLA - will blow even further:
(click chart above to see the in depth analysis👆🏻)
It is almost incredible to see such a large cap stock rally more than +60% in less than two months. But Tesla is clearly the exception and therefore we should expect the unexpected. What's quite likely is at least another rally of about 25% from here and a retest of the previous all time high.
Levels to watch: $250, $400
Keep your long term vision!
Philip (BasicTrading)
bitcoinBitcoin (BTC) Correlation with DXY, Bond Yields, and Interest Rates
1. Bitcoin vs. Dollar Index (DXY)
Inverse Correlation: Bitcoin and DXY typically move in opposite directions. A stronger dollar (DXY↑) reduces demand for risk assets like BTC, while a weaker dollar (DXY↓) boosts BTC as a hedge against fiat depreciation.
DXY↑: Investors flock to USD safety, pressuring BTC.
DXY↓: Capital rotates into BTC as a risk-on asset or inflation hedge.
2. Bitcoin vs. Bond Yields
Evolving Relationship:
Historical Inverse Link: Rising 10-year Treasury yields often pressured BTC (e.g., 2022 Fed hikes).
Recent Decoupling: In 2025, BTC and 10-year yields hit a record-low correlation (-0.8), signaling BTC’s independence from traditional bonds.
Key Drivers:
Inflation Hedge: BTC gains appeal as bonds struggle with rising yields (e.g., 30-year yields at 5.07% in May 2025).
Portfolio Diversification: Investors increasingly treat BTC as “digital gold,” reducing bond allocations.
3. Bitcoin vs. Interest Rates
Fed Policy Impact:
Rate Hikes: Strengthen USD (DXY↑) and bond yields, pressuring BTC
Rate Cuts: Weaken USD and lower yields, boosting BTC’s appeal
Real Yields Matter: BTC thrives when real yields (nominal yield - inflation) fall, as seen during stagflationary environments.
Summary Table
Correlation Relationship Key Drivers
BTC ⇄ DXY Inverse (DXY↑ → BTC↓) Risk sentiment, USD strength as safe haven
BTC ⇄ Bond Yields Increasingly negative (2025) Inflation hedging, portfolio diversification
BTC ⇄ Interest Rates Indirect via DXY and yields Fed policy, real yield dynamics
Critical Trends in 2025
BTC-DXY Decoupling: BTC’s rally to $105,268 and hit 111k amid DXY volatility shows growing independence.
Bond Market Shift: Investors rotate from Treasuries to BTC amid fiscal deficits and inflation.
Fed Policy Pivot: Expected rate cuts could weaken DXY and bolster BTC’s bullish case.
Conclusion
BTC-Yields: Negative correlation strengthens BTC’s role as a bond alternative in inflationary regimes.
Macro Strategy: Use DXY and bond yields as leading indicators for BTC’s risk-on/risk-off cycles.
Trade Implications:
A DXY drop below 98.4 could signal BTC bullish momentum.
Rising bond yields may temporarily pressure BTC but reinforce its long-term hedge appeal.
#btc #bitcoin #crypto
BITCOIN Bitcoin (BTC) Correlation with DXY, Bond Yields, and Interest Rates
1. Bitcoin vs. Dollar Index (DXY)
Inverse Correlation: Bitcoin and DXY typically move in opposite directions. A stronger dollar (DXY↑) reduces demand for risk assets like BTC, while a weaker dollar (DXY↓) boosts BTC as a hedge against fiat depreciation.
DXY↑: Investors flock to USD safety, pressuring BTC.
DXY↓: Capital rotates into BTC as a risk-on asset or inflation hedge.
2. Bitcoin vs. Bond Yields
Evolving Relationship:
Historical Inverse Link: Rising 10-year Treasury yields often pressured BTC (e.g., 2022 Fed hikes).
Recent Decoupling: In 2025, BTC and 10-year yields hit a record-low correlation (-0.8), signaling BTC’s independence from traditional bonds.
Key Drivers:
Inflation Hedge: BTC gains appeal as bonds struggle with rising yields (e.g., 30-year yields at 5.07% in May 2025).
Portfolio Diversification: Investors increasingly treat BTC as “digital gold,” reducing bond allocations.
3. Bitcoin vs. Interest Rates
Fed Policy Impact:
Rate Hikes: Strengthen USD (DXY↑) and bond yields, pressuring BTC
Rate Cuts: Weaken USD and lower yields, boosting BTC’s appeal
Real Yields Matter: BTC thrives when real yields (nominal yield - inflation) fall, as seen during stagflationary environments.
Summary Table
Correlation Relationship Key Drivers
BTC ⇄ DXY Inverse (DXY↑ → BTC↓) Risk sentiment, USD strength as safe haven
BTC ⇄ Bond Yields Increasingly negative (2025) Inflation hedging, portfolio diversification
BTC ⇄ Interest Rates Indirect via DXY and yields Fed policy, real yield dynamics
Critical Trends in 2025
BTC-DXY Decoupling: BTC’s rally to $105,268 and hit 111k amid DXY volatility shows growing independence.
Bond Market Shift: Investors rotate from Treasuries to BTC amid fiscal deficits and inflation.
Fed Policy Pivot: Expected rate cuts could weaken DXY and bolster BTC’s bullish case.
Conclusion
BTC-Yields: Negative correlation strengthens BTC’s role as a bond alternative in inflationary regimes.
Macro Strategy: Use DXY and bond yields as leading indicators for BTC’s risk-on/risk-off cycles.
Trade Implications:
A DXY drop below 98.4 could signal BTC bullish momentum.
Rising bond yields may temporarily pressure BTC but reinforce its long-term hedge appeal.
#btc #bitcoin #crypto
Understanding Market StructureIn this video, I break down market structure in a simple and easy-to-digest way, helping you understand how to identify whether the market is in an uptrend or downtrend.
Recognizing market direction is a key skill for any trader, it allows you to trade in alignment with price action and make more confident, higher-probability decisions.
✅ If you're new to trading or want to sharpen your edge, this video will give you the insights needed to read market trends more clearly.
📈 Hope you find value in this breakdown!
👉 Don’t forget to like, comment, and subscribe to support the channel and stay tuned for more educational content.
Bull trap into the close?Daily Bias is still up, but if we end the day near 5940, it may be a C wave with a further move down into next week. I also look at Gold, USOIL, and BTC
Alibaba - This was just the obvious bottom!Alibaba - NYSE:BABA - will head much higher:
(click chart above to see the in depth analysis👆🏻)
Ever since Alibaba actually retested the previous all time low in 2022, we have been able to see the textbook creation of a rounding bottom formation. Even the recent break and retest was perfectly playing out and if Alibaba confirmes the potental breakout, a rally of +50% will most likely follow.
Levels to watch: $140, $220
Keep your long term vision!
Philip (BasicTrading)
30 of May 2025 Trading plan Our trading plan first was buying but the price change its direction and i also change to the selling in NY times
1- PDA:-bearish H4-FVG(narrative) to the target of swing low of the bullish candle where the (Reclaimed OB-H2)
2- Rejection Block bearish on 15min associated with CISD-15m
3- bearish CISD or MSS 2 times on the 5m-TF
4- (1-2-3 ) pattern :-3 violate 2 that support the bearish trend
5-TURTLE SOUP in area of CISD
6-AMD IS evident
SUIUSDT | Bullish Scenario Hello everyone.
Everything is clear in the video.
Summery
Order block zone: 3.3692-3.2294
SL: 3.2041
TP: 4.1961
I Share my ideas with you and the only thing you have to do is supporting.
Thanks.
GOLD GOLD ,gold trading is simple with demand and supply strategy, the scalper potential to scale is high and have more winnings than losses.
trade the direction of capital or liquidity instead of predicting it,mejority of my bad trades came from predicting the market.
since i started following the market is made simple.
forecast 02/06/2025XAUUSD Forecast | VSA & Trend Line Analysis | Gold Price Prediction
In this video, I share my detailed forecast for XAUUSD (Gold vs. USD) using Volume Spread Analysis (VSA) and trend line strategies. Watch as I break down the market structure, identify key levels, and explain the logic behind potential moves in gold.
Golden Cross? No Thanks!! Here’s How to Get In Early.📉 “Golden Cross? No Thanks. Here’s How to Get In Early.”
By FXProfessor
Everyone’s hyped about the Golden Cross again...
📰 “Bullish Signal!”
📈 “50 SMA crossed the 200!”
🎉 “Party time!”
Let me stop you right there.
If you’re waiting for that cross to go long —
You’re not late.
You’re definitely late.
The Golden Cross is a lagging indication.
It’s the afterparty. The smart money already had the drinks and left.
🔍 Here's the deal:
✅ Golden Cross forms after the move
✅ Price is usually already up double digits
✅ Sometimes it triggers right before a top
✅ Even EMAs (which I prefer) are still confirmation tools
✅ The real edge? Structure. Trendlines. Pressure zones.
📊 What I use instead:
-Custom EMAs that react faster
-My signature parallelogram method for early pressure
-Focus on trendlines and structure
-Above all — logic, not hype
- Fundamentals first!
For example, while the Golden Cross just printed, I was already watching $74,394 and $79,000.
Why? Because pressure builds before indicators react.
That's where the best entries live.
So next time someone posts
“Golden Cross confirmed!” 😏 Just smile and remember:
By the time the cross lights up, I’m already halfway to the next target.
Use EMAs if you like. But structure comes first.
That’s where the party starts.
One Love,
The FXProfessor 🧠📈
Disclosure: I am happy to be part of the Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. Awesome people who care about the TRADER FIRST!
SPX week & month review 5/30/25Intrigued by today as we closed the month and week. The charts appear bullish until something changes that. Key points I noticed...
*Monthly morning star pattern
*RSI above 50 on month and week chart
*MACD over zero line and signal up on month and week chart
*Key levels holding up (21 ema, FVGs)
We are still in volatile times and narratives are being thrown all over the place. Do you see what I see? Enjoy your weekend.
BBW: One of the Great Wealth Transfer BeneficiariesHey, all. Wanted to get a video made for the first time in a few weeks. I have a position in NYSE:BBW that has been doing well. In my opinion, this is a stock that is geared for further upside. Earnings have been coming in consistent and they have done a good job with their product offerings as I found out when visiting their website recently.
I do think NYSE:BBW can continue the growth, especially as more Millenials and Gen-Z have kids. The Baby Boomer generation will want to spend money on their grandkids and that should drive up cute stuffed animal sales. At any rate, please do your own research and invest carefully and wisely!
Hope you enjoy the video, and best of luck out there!
Quantums TSLA Trading Outlook 6/1/25Heading into the new month and year we take a quick dive into TSLA. Trying to simplify trading is my main goal and with so much news and uncertainty I think it's important to stick to your levels/zones. I like the videos form so I'll start posting these more often and don't forget to follow me on here, X, Youtube & Facebook for more detailed and daily trades.
Review and plan for 2nd June 2025 Nifty future and banknifty future analysis and intraday plan in kannada.
This video is for information/education purpose only. you are 100% responsible for any actions you take by reading/viewing this post.
please consult your financial advisor before taking any action.
----Vinaykumar hiremath, CMT
GBPUSDGBP/USD Interest Rate, Bond Yields, and Carry Trade Analysis (May 25–June 2025)
1. Current Interest Rates (Policy Rates)
Bank of England (BoE) Rate: 4.25% (cut by 25bps on May 7, 2025) .
Federal Reserve Rate: 4.25–4.50% (target range maintained as of May 29, 2025) .
Interest Rate Differential:
4.25% (BoE)−4.25–4.50% (Fed)=−0.25% to 0%
The Fed holds a slight advantage, but the differential is nearly neutral.
2. 10-Year Bond Yields
UK 10-Year Gilt Yield: 4.77% (May 21, 2025), near a one-month high due to sticky inflation .
US 10-Year Treasury Yield: 4.51% (May 29, 2025) .
Yield Spread:
4.77% (UK)−4.51% (US)=+0.26%
The UK’s higher bond yield offers a modest carry trade advantage.
3. Dollar Index (DXY) Context
Current DXY Level: ~98.4 (testing key support as of May 2025, per prior analysis).
Drivers:
Fed’s steady rates and resilient US economic data support USD.
BoE’s dovish pivot (rate cuts) and UK inflation risks (April CPI at 3.5% YoY) weigh on GBP .
4. Carry Trade Directional Bias
GBP/USD Bias: Neutral-to-Bullish, driven by the +0.26% bond yield spread favoring GBP.
Mechanics: Investors borrow USD (lower policy rate) to invest in higher-yielding UK gilts, supporting GBP demand.
Risks:
BoE Dovishness: Further rate cuts could narrow the yield spread.
Fed Policy: Prolonged rate holds or hawkish signals may strengthen USD.
Inflation Dynamics: UK’s elevated CPI (3.5% YoY) vs. US disinflation could delay BoE easing.
Key Data and Events
US: Nonfarm payrolls (June 6), Fed speakers, and inflation updates.
Summary Table
Metric United Kingdom (GBP) United States (USD)
Policy Rate 4.25% 4.25–4.50%
10-Year Bond Yield 4.77% 4.51%
Yield Spread +0.26% (GBP over USD) —
Inflation (YoY) 3.5% (April 2025) ~2.6–3.0% (est.)
DXY Level — ~98.4 (testing support)
Conclusion
Interest Rate Differential: Neutral policy rates but a +0.26% UK bond yield advantage supports GBP/USD.
Carry Trade: Modest bullish bias for GBP due to higher gilt yields, though BoE dovishness and USD resilience cap gains.
DXY Outlook: USD strength may persist if Fed maintains rates, but GBP could benefit from sticky inflation delaying further BoE cuts.
Monitor UK inflation data and Fed rhetoric for directional catalysts.
GBPUSD is neutral on economic data approach,the next fed monetary policy decision will define the direction of trade .
stay cautious
#GBPUSD #DOLLAR #GBP
Small Clues In A Big Breakout PatternSilver has been consolidating as of late and if there's one thing we no about contraction is that it eventually leads to expansion aka a breakout.
The issue with this particular setup is that based on location of the pattern, there's no predetermined directional bias for the breakout.
Therefor, what we're doing today is looking for small clues that the market has provided to give us any type of edge in predicting a breakout one way or another and guess what. WE FOUND SOME!
If you have any questions or comments, please leave them below!
Akil
GBPUSDGBP/USD Interest Rate, Bond Yields, and Carry Trade Analysis (May 25–June 2025)
1. Current Interest Rates (Policy Rates)
Bank of England (BoE) Rate: 4.25% (cut by 25bps on May 7, 2025) .
Federal Reserve Rate: 4.25–4.50% (target range maintained as of May 29, 2025) .
Interest Rate Differential:
4.25% (BoE)−4.25–4.50% (Fed)=−0.25% to 0%
The Fed holds a slight advantage, but the differential is nearly neutral.
2. 10-Year Bond Yields
UK 10-Year Gilt Yield: 4.77% (May 21, 2025), near a one-month high due to sticky inflation .
US 10-Year Treasury Yield: 4.51% (May 29, 2025) .
Yield Spread:
4.77% (UK)−4.51% (US)=+0.26%
The UK’s higher bond yield offers a modest carry trade advantage.
3. Dollar Index (DXY) Context
Current DXY Level: ~98.4 (testing key support as of May 2025, per prior analysis).
Drivers:
Fed’s steady rates and resilient US economic data support USD.
BoE’s dovish pivot (rate cuts) and UK inflation risks (April CPI at 3.5% YoY) weigh on GBP .
4. Carry Trade Directional Bias
GBP/USD Bias: Neutral-to-Bullish, driven by the +0.26% bond yield spread favoring GBP.
Mechanics: Investors borrow USD (lower policy rate) to invest in higher-yielding UK gilts, supporting GBP demand.
Risks:
BoE Dovishness: Further rate cuts could narrow the yield spread.
Fed Policy: Prolonged rate holds or hawkish signals may strengthen USD.
Inflation Dynamics: UK’s elevated CPI (3.5% YoY) vs. US disinflation could delay BoE easing.
Key Data and Events
US: Nonfarm payrolls (June 6), Fed speakers, and inflation updates.
Summary Table
Metric United Kingdom (GBP) United States (USD)
Policy Rate 4.25% 4.25–4.50%
10-Year Bond Yield 4.77% 4.51%
Yield Spread +0.26% (GBP over USD) —
Inflation (YoY) 3.5% (April 2025) ~2.6–3.0% (est.)
DXY Level — ~98.4 (testing support)
Conclusion
Interest Rate Differential: Neutral policy rates but a +0.26% UK bond yield advantage supports GBP/USD.
Carry Trade: Modest bullish bias for GBP due to higher gilt yields, though BoE dovishness and USD resilience cap gains.
DXY Outlook: USD strength may persist if Fed maintains rates, but GBP could benefit from sticky inflation delaying further BoE cuts.
Monitor UK inflation data and Fed rhetoric for directional catalysts.
GBPUSD is neutral on economic data approach,the next fed monetary policy decision will define the direction of trade .
stay cautious
#GBPUSD #DOLLAR #GBP
FOMO & An Inside Bar Entry Into A Larger Head & Shoulder PatternAn handful of lessons in this video so hang on.
1) We take a look at the dangers that come with entering a trade too early & what you should do if you ever find yourself in that situation.
2) A discussion ion inside bars, what they are, how to trade them and an indicator that will help you spot them.
3) How to use that inside bar as an entry reason into a bigger head and shoulders pattern on the larger timeframe.
Please leave any questions or comments below!
Akil
EURUSD MULTI TIME FRAME ANALYSISHello traders , here is the full multi time frame analysis for this pair, let me know in the comment section below if you have any questions , the entry will be taken only if all rules of the strategies will be satisfied. wait for more price action to develop before taking any position. I suggest you keep this pair on your watchlist and see if the rules of your strategy are satisfied.
🧠💡 Share your unique analysis, thoughts, and ideas in the comments section below. I'm excited to hear your perspective on this pair .
💭🔍 Don't hesitate to comment if you have any questions or queries regarding this analysis.
A Different Way To Use the RSI To Trade Deceleration Patterns A deceleration pattern is a pattern that forms at the end of a directional move as it starts to lose steam. 2 good ones to learn are the rising/falling wedge & channel.
The problem wit these patterns however, is that it can sometimes be difficult to tell when that final reversal may come backing it hard to place stops.
Lately, and by that I mean for the past year or so, I've been tracking a very specific pattern on the RSI (Relative Strength Index) indicator to help me with these situations.
Please LIKE & SHARE and if you have any questions or comments, leave them below
Akil
